Here is my March Freshman Scorecard. As always, these are ordered by my opinion of best to worst chance for survival. Premiering in March are The Real O'Neals (ABC, March 2), The Family (ABC, March 3), Of Kings and Prophets (ABC, March 8), Little Big Shots (NBC, March 13), Crowded (NBC, March 15), Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders (CBS, March 16), Heartbreaker (NBC, March 22), The Catch (ABC, March 24), and Rush Hour (CBS, March 31).
Past March scorecards: 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
Quantico - ABC loves their buzzy dramas and this is it but we'll see how it comes back in the ratings this week. Also, the Paul Lee firing could play a role but I'd still be shocked if this doesn't return. 80%
Dr. Ken - It's waned some since the start of the new year but I still like its chances for a second season. There are bigger problems on ABC than the Friday 8pm slot. 75%
Bachelor Live - Seems very possible to come back next winter in the Monday 10pm slot. 70%
The Great Holiday Baking Show - This could come back as filler but I give it slightly less of a chance to than Bachelor Live. 40%
The Muppets - After an ever dropping fall, The Muppets fell flat on its face in its return to the air in February. This was a Paul Lee pet project and he's gone now so its chances are even less. 10%
My Diet is Better Than Yours - Unlike Bachelor Live and The Great Holiday Baking Show, I don't see this coming back as filler. 5%
Blood & Oil - Unofficially cancelled. 1%
Wicked City - Officially cancelled.
Supergirl - It has held up well enough after some disappointing early drops and it is on brand for the direction CBS wants to head. It's definitely coming back. 90%
Life in Pieces - This has held up extremely well through the winter and worked its way from being a disappointment that didn't seem deserving of a back order to a show that seems very likely to return. 80%
Limitless - This has been the reverse of Life of Pieces. A very promising start has turned into an ever more concerning performance. It doesn't deserve to come back and at this point, I'm not liking its chances. 35%
Code Black - This is more deserving but less likely than Limitless to return. But I don't really think either will. This could never sustain momentum for any long period of time and its season is already over. 20%
Angel From Hell - Officially cancelled.
Blindspot/Chicago Med/Superstore/Shades of Blue - Renewed.
Telenovela - If NBC hasn't already renewed it after renewing shows like Superstore or Shades of Blue, it does not seem likely that it will get renewed. Nor does it deserve to. 10%
You, Me, and the Apocalypse - I'm not really sure why this is still on the air. It doesn't stand a chance of coming back. 5%
Truth Be Told/The Player - Unofficially cancelled. 1%
Heroes: Reborn/Best Time Ever with Neil Patrick Harris - Officially cancelled.
Scream Queens - Renewed
The X-Files - This will absolutely come back if they can get the creative team on board. That's the only sticking point right now and I'm sure they'll find a way to make it happen. 90%
Lucifer - We'll find out how this show did in its big test in a few hours when we find out how it did with Gotham as a lead-in. If it exceeds expectations, its chances go way up. If it falls apart, its chances go way down. 50%
Rosewood - Based on its fall ratings, I would expect it to return but I'm very skeptical how it will return this week and how it will do this month before Empire returns. 40%
Grandfathered - It still strikes me as a one and done show, but I wouldn't completely count it out like the shows below. 25%
Bordertown/Cooper Barrett's Guide to Surviving Life/The Grinder - These shows all have the "dead show walking" feel to me. 5%
Second Chance - This is even more of a dead show walking, riding out the string on Friday nights. 2%
Minority Report - Unofficially cancelled. 1%