Here is my Freshman Scorecard for March. As always, these are ranked from best to worst chance of survival. Premiering over the next month are Secrets & Lies, American Crime, and Moment of Truth on ABC, Battle Creek and CSI: Cyber on CBS, One Big Happy on NBC, and The Last Man on Earth on FOX.
Past March scorecards: 2014 2013 2012 2011
How to Get Away with Murder - A sure thing for renewal. TGIT has been a dominant force this season. 99%
Black-ish - After a strong start, it took a hit against Empire but has leveled off lately. It'll surely come back, but will ABC put it on a different night? 98%
Fresh Off the Boat - It's looking really good for ABC's new Tuesday comedy. It's been the biggest self-starter in a difficult slot in awhile and has some positive buzz. Even if it slips some in the weeks to come, I think it's done enough to get a renewal. 80%
Cristela - The success of Fresh Off the Boat probably doesn't help this show's cause unless ABC wants to open up more comedy hours on its schedule. I don't think it's looking as positive as it did a month ago. 25%
Forever - As I've said all season, the full season was a victory. A second season is very unlikely. 10%
Marvel's Agent Carter - I don't think it did enough to get a second season with a pretty low-rated run. I guess if ABC really wants to bridge the Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. gap again, it might have a small chance. 15%
Galavant - Very unlikely as it already seems pretty forgotten. 10%
Selfie/Manhattan Love Story - Cancelled.
NCIS: New Orleans/Madam Secretary/Scorpion - Renewed.
The Odd Couple - It's had a positive start. It'll probably not go low enough with a Big Bang repeat and CBS is need of comedies so I think it's looking good. 80%
Stalker - A very unlikely returner. It left an episode unaired and CBS has plenty of freshman drama hits. 10%
The McCarthys - Getting pulled early from the schedule after not getting a full season is as close as it gets to an official cancellation. 1%
The Mysteries of Laura - A rise this past week and the disastrous performances of NBC's other new dramas is surely helping this show's case. It's the only newbie on NBC that hasn't gone below a 1.0 demo. I'm more confident in this show's chances than I was a month ago. 60%
Constantine - Very unlikely to return but it has a better chance than the horrible options that follow it on this list for NBC. 10%
State of Affairs/Marry Me - Completely unlikely after very troubling winter runs. 2%
The Slap/Allegiance - Even more unlikely as they are single-handedly destroying NBC's new Thursday lineup and could dip even further. 1%
Bad Judge/A to Z - Cancelled.
Empire/Gotham - Renewed.
World's Funniest Fails - Very possible to return as a filler or Friday option. 60%
Backstrom - No chance to return but it's survived enough to probably finish its run this spring. 10%
Mulaney/Red Band Society/Utopia/Gracepoint - Cancelled.