Tuesday, February 1, 2011

FRESHMAN SCORECARD: February

Here is the monthly freshman scorecard. As always, each network's shows are ordered from their best to worst chances for a second season renewal.

ABC

Better With You - ABC picked up its other three Wednesday sitcoms for another season this month but Better With You was left off the list. Still, its chances remain solid especially if ABC expands its comedy hours either to 10pm permanently or to another night and there are rumblings that they will. Another big factor for Better With You is how well Mr. Sunshine and Happy Endings perform when they join the schedule. Basically, it's a toss-up but it is starting to find a voice. It would be nice to see it continue.

Off the Map - The new ABC medical drama has not been lighting the world on fire. In just three weeks, it has dipped to a 1.8 demo and just over 5 million viewers. The only good news for this show is that it is, as of now, outperforming recent Weds 10pm entries by ABC and all of ABC's new dramas are struggling. It may be able to eke out a renewal by being the best of the worst, but it's not a success by any means and wouldn't deserve that renewal.

No Ordinary Family - ABC's hyped family drama has struggled as well. Its January performances have sunk even lower and it hit a 1.5 demo at its lowest. Right now, it's probably tracking a bit behind Off the Map in terms of renewal status. If Body of Proof is a success, then both these shows' chances go down because they'll only get renewed if ABC has too many holes to fill.

Detroit 1-8-7 - As great is this show is, it doesn't seem to have a prayer for renewal. It dipped to a 1.0 demo in its last airing and then was preempted for a week. If tonight's episode bombs, it could be benched for February sweeps and maybe beyond. ABC executives like the show but no show can survive at the minuscule ratings it is receiving. It's a shame, it has had a great freshman year so far in terms of quality.

Skating with the Stars - Not officially cancelled but it's hard to believe this will ever come back even as a filler.

The Whole Truth/My Generation - Cancelled long ago.

CBS

Mike & Molly - Maybe the surest bet of any freshman show besides the already renewed Raising Hope on FOX, Mike & Molly has been a success on Monday night even though it's not a runaway hit. With Charlie Sheen's troubles, CBS needs more of its comedies this year and ordered additional episodes of Mike & Molly. With Sheen's long term status up in the air, they need to groom their young comedies. If CBS does early renewals, this show will get one.

Hawaii Five-0 - Hawaii Five-0 got some sampling by airing a highly rated episode after the AFC Championship Game. It hasn't aired a new episode since so it's hard to know if it will have an impact. Like Mike & Molly, it's not a breakout hit but it's a success and has held its own on Monday night. It should be another easy renewal in CBS's eyes.

Blue Bloods - Blue Bloods has continued to skew old on its Wednesday night tryout run so far, but a renewal seems likely but just on Fridays. It is a success by Friday standards and the Wednesday airings may pick up a few new viewers (like myself, I got back into it as it aired on Weds nights after I stopped watching it earlier in the season). It will forever be old skewing but on Friday night, that's ok. It's hard to imagine this show not getting a renewal.

$#*! My Dad Says - The other freshman comedy is on shaky ground. It hit a series low this week airing after a repeat episode of The Big Bang Theory and will end its season in February. It needs Mad Love to fail, a desire by CBS to expand its comedy lineup, and possibly more Charlie Sheen troubles to have a chance. All three of those things happening are possible but not that likely, which sums up $#*!'s renewal chances.

The Defenders - The Defenders is getting ready to air on Friday night starting this week after hitting lows in its Wednesday at 10pm slot. It will have to significantly improve on Medium's Friday numbers to have a chance and it doesn't seem very likely that it will. It will get the benefit of the doubt on Friday night but I don't see it performing well enough to earn a renewal on CBS's crowded schedule.

Live to Dance - The new reality competition from Paula Abdul has bombed as a fill-in for Survivor. After an underwhelming start, the bottom fell out when it started competing with American Idol. Now it's done to a 1.0 demo and CBS will absolutely not accept that. There's an off chance it could return as a summer show but even that seems unlikely. It is the first real flop for CBS this season.

NBC

Harry's Law - The first real success story for NBC this season, it has been a model of consistency in its first three airings on Monday nights. It skews old but has been getting 10-11 million viewers which is great for struggling NBC. It would have to fall tremendously to not be assured a second season with the current state of NBC. But viewers have been sticking around and for good reason, it's a good show.

Outsourced - It's a sad state of affairs that Outsourced is second on this list. The show has not been doing very well in its new timeslot of 10:30pm on Thursdays, but it hasn't been terrible. If NBC wants to expand its comedy or nurture its current comedy lineup, it has a chance. The fact that Perfect Couples hasn't done well helps its chance plus NBC can't have high expectations for a 10:30pm show. It may eke out a renewal.

Law & Order: Los Angeles - The troubled Law & Order spinoff was the best of a bad bunch of freshman shows in terms of ratings during the fall but now it is on hiatus as it undergoes massive retooling. They have dropped cast members and added other ones but there is no launch date set. Will NBC give this show another chance when it finally comes back? Probably given its brand and its decent fall numbers, but it's chances aren't as strong as they were before.

The Event - The Event has now been off the air for two full months and won't return until the last day of February. But for a show that bled viewers like crazy in the fall, can it even convince the remaining viewers to return? It seems like many have forgotten about this show during its hiatus and it will take a big marketing push by NBC to have a successful midseason launch. A renewal seems unlikely but loyal fans (like myself) would like some closure to the storyline.

The Cape - The replacement for The Event has not been a successful performer on Monday nights either. After a surprisingly strong debut, it has slipped every week so far and is already down to a 1.5 demo and just over 5 million viewers. It's also likely not done dropping especially as the competition intensifies. This genre show hasn't cut it for viewers and a renewal seems highly unlikely.

Perfect Couples - The new addition to NBC's Thursday night comedies has not been a success. In just its second week, it became the weak link of the night and it has gotten very bad reviews (and for good reason). NBC is very unlikely to renew both this and Outsourced and it seems like Outsourced would have the edge right now. This show may not even finish out the season with two comedies still waiting on the bench.

Chase - This show is hanging by a thread but a renewal would be a miracle. A better question is if it will even survive the month of February. A move to the highly competitive Wednesday 9pm slot has made this show's bad numbers even worse. Though I think it has improved in quality as the season has gone on, this CBS-style show is not working on NBC. It's probably up there with Detroit 1-8-7 as the next possible cancellation.

School Pride - Not officially cancelled but there's no way it's coming back.

Undercovers/Outlaw - Cancelled long ago.

FOX

Raising Hope - Already renewed, the first freshman series to earn a second season. It has found a loyal and young-skewing audience.

Million Dollar Money Drop - This show probably won't return as a regular series but its ratings have been adequate enough to be a December/January or summer filler. It's been somewhat fun to watch in these winter months.

Bob's Burgers - The new addition to FOX's animated lineup had a very strong debut thanks to an NFL and high-rated Simpsons lead-in but it has dropped every week. Of course it's been an odd month with football competing and other Sunday specials. This show's chances will be more apparent when the smoke clears and the networks start having regular Sunday programming. For now, it's a toss-up.

Running Wilde/Lone Star - Cancelled long ago.


Enjoy February! By the time we get to the March scorecard, we will be able to add Mr. Sunshine, Mad Love, Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior, The Chicago Code, and Traffic Light to the list!

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