In the midst of my Benjamonster Awards, here's a newsletter looking at the big three categories: Comedy Series, Drama Series and Limited Series for the Emmys, ahead of Wednesday's nominations announcement. Check back tomorrow for my FINAL predictions in all major categories. The Benjamonster Awards will continue daily through the end of July while I may have some post-nominations thoughts at some point. The weekly newsletter will resume on a weekly basis in the fall.
While the reaction to the third season of The Bear has been mixed, the nominations voting for the Emmys for the acclaimed second season of the show closed before the third season premiered. So it may have a tougher go with wins but it is 100% a lock to get in, along with its closest competitor - Hacks, which had a very acclaimed third season right before nomination got underway. The other lock is Abbott Elementary, which, like Hacks, hasn't won the big prize yet, but has done well each year its been eligible. After that, I would consider the next group "near locks." That includes Only Murders in the Building, which has gotten in for its first two seasons. I would also bet on the swan song (?) of Curb Your Enthusiasm earning its 11th nomination in 12 seasons in this category. After that, it gets a little more dicey. What We Do in the Shadows has been nominated twice in this category but was snubbed for its previous season. Still, in a lighter field, a return to the category seems likely. Critics have been beating the drum for forever for Reservation Dogs and it could pull a Friday Night Lights/The Americans move by finally getting in at the end of its run. I would never discount the Netflix effect (remember Emily in Paris and Cobra Kai have gotten in before) so that could bode well for The Gentlemen. I'm less sold on Palm Royale. It had some industry support but it seemed like the buzz (deservedly) soured on the show. With a weaker field, could we be in for a Jury Duty-type surprise? If so, then it could certainly be Colin From Accounts, a show that has been building buzz. After that, we're looking at some dark horses. I guess Girls5Eva could benefit from the Netflix effect too but it didn't really pop on Netflix so it's a tough road. Ghosts has been in the shadows of Abbott as far as network sitcoms go but in a weak field, I wouldn't totally rule it out. Frasier was a five-time winner in this category for its original run in the 1990s, but the revival was not nearly as well-received. I'm a Virgo could be another surprise while The Righteous Gemstones has the HBO clout but hasn't been able to break through.
Projected Nominees (ranked in order of likelihood to get nominated):
1. The Bear
2. Hacks
3. Abbott Elementary
4. Curb Your Enthusiasm
5. Only Murders in the Building
6. What We Do in the Shadows
7. The Gentlemen
8. Colin From Accounts
Possible Spoilers:
9. Reservation Dogs
10. Palm Royale
11. Frasier
As I've mentioned in several other categories, the Drama Series field was looking pretty barren until Shogun moved over from the Limited Series category and is not only a 100% lock to get nominated but very, very likely to be the winner. That's because there are question marks around everything else. In fact, I'd say Shogun is the only complete lock in this category though I think there are several likely nominees. That includes the final season of The Crown. Despite mixed reception for its final season, it has been nominated every single year (winning in 2021) and seems likely to get nominated again. The Morning Show has gotten a lot of Emmy nominations but did not get a Series nod for either of its first two seasons. In a weaker field, that seems likely to change for the third season even though reception to the show is mixed at best. Speaking of Apple TV+ shows, this seems like it could finally be the year that Slow Horses gets in after critics have been beating the drum for that show. There was a lot more buzz for the second season of The Gilded Age and with a lot of the HBO stalwarts out this year, it will get the big push by the premium channel that will likely get it in. The last three slots are a lot more up in the air. Fallout was a big hit and seen by many and the Emmys have been more open to genre shows so it could get in. There's another Prime Video show that's a big question mark and that is Mr. & Mrs. Smith. The show had solid critical reception but I'm just not sure it's going to be remembered. It could really go either way. There's also a major question mark of The Curse. The show was so odd and different and Showtime has always had trouble getting nominations, but it seems to have stayed in the conversation for a nomination. Loki was nominated for its first season and could be a name check option despite very mixed reception to its second season. The Star Wars world has gotten Andor and The Mandalorian in so I wouldn't count out Ahsoka though it was not as well received. 3 Body Problem is a possibility because of the Netflix muscle, but I'd be surprised. After that, we're really looking at dark horses. That list includes Tokyo Vice, Silo, Hijack and a rare broadcast mention in this field, Elsbeth.
Projected Nominees (ranked in order of likelihood to get nominated):
1. Shogun
2. The Crown
3. The Morning Show
4. The Gilded Age
5. Slow Horses
6. Fallout
7. Loki
8. Mr. & Mrs. Smith
Possible Spoilers
9. The Curse
10. 3 Body Problem
11. Ahsoka
While the Comedy and Drama series categories now have eight nominees regardless of the number of eligible shows, the Limited Series category nominee number is still determined by total eligible shows. So there will only be five nominees in this category. Despite the departure of Shogun, there will still be some serious contenders left out and it's going to be a tight race. Leading the pack is Baby Reindeer. The show may have had some backlash but it was big enough of a phenomenon that a nomination seems assured. I'm less convinced it has the win in the bag though than I was a month or two ago. After that, you're probably looking at Fargo. This became FX's big push in this category and they already have The Bear in Comedy and Shogun in Drama so FX will certainly be a player this year. Lessons in Chemistry did pretty well at the Winter Awards so it seems likely to get in even though I think it was somewhat underseen thanks to being on Apple TV+. Despite mixed reception, I do feel pretty good about the chances for True Detective: Night Country. The show is the big HBO push in this category and has a history of Emmy love. I feel pretty solid on those top four but the last spot is a real big wildcard. My hope is it will be Ripley. The show could get the Netflix bump, but it also didn't seem like a big hit for the streamer. The reviews were glowing but it seemed to get eclipsed by Baby Reindeer quickly as they came out very close to each other. So if it's not Ripley, what else could get in? Fellow Travelers popped up in a few Winter Awards and could surprise but Showtime always has trouble getting into contention. Band of Brothers and The Pacific were huge Emmys players more than a decade ago so I wouldn't count out the third entry, Masters of the Air. I think the response to Feud: Capote vs. the Swans was too divisive to get in but it does have strong auspices. The Sympathizer seemed to be a big contender before it premiered but it lost steam quickly. All the Light We Cannot See was panned by critics but it did get a lot of eyeballs on Netflix so it could be this year's version of Inventing Anna. A few other dark horses that don't feel like impossibilities are Expats, Griselda and One Day.
Projected Nominees (ranked in order of likelihood to get nominated):
1. Baby Reindeer
2. Fargo
3. Lessons in Chemistry
4. True Detective: Night Country
5. Ripley
Possible Spoilers
6. Masters of the Air
7. All the Light We Cannot See
8. Fellow Travelers
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