Here is my November Freshman Scorecard. As always, each show is ranked by network and best to worst chance for survival. Chicago Med will join the list in time for December's scorecard and we'll have a much better idea about midseason plans for the network.
Past November scorecards: 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
ABC
Dr. Ken - This has been quite a surprise on Friday nights. Despite being trashed by critics, it has proven to be the best companion to Last Man Standing yet. Who would have guessed? 80%
Quantico - Quantico was surprisingly strong out of the gate but it has lost a little steam since both in terms of buzz and ratings. I'm just not convinced in the long run that it will pan out but I still think its chances are OK. 60%
The Muppets - It got its order extended for three more episodes but was never planned as a full season. Still, it started as one of the biggest new fall shows and is now barely ahead of Dr. Ken in a far more favorable situation. If it gets renewed, it might be for reasons other than ratings. 50%
Wicked City - It had a miserable premiere but it's only been one week so that's why I like its chance just ever so slightly better. We'll at least see if there's any DVR lift, I doubt it. 3%
Blood & Oil - One of many shows to get its episode order reduced and that's the current version of cancelled for the struggling shows. 1%
CBS
Supergirl - It's only been one week but it's off to a hot start and has a long way to go before things become a problem. This is the type of show that CBS will do everything in its power to make a hit and I think they'll succeed. 90%
Limitless - This is similar to Quantico in that it got off to a pretty decent start but has cooled off a little since then. It deservedly got a full season but CBS has Supergirl and lots of veteran dramas so we'll see if there's room for this one. 65%
Life in Pieces - It got a full season but that was reportedly a debate within CBS. I think that was a win for this show and I'd be surprised if it got more than that. 40%
Code Black - Easily the weakest of the new CBS shows. It got an order for extra scripts but I don't think that will translate to episodes. We'll probably see it air its 13 episodes and then be done. 15%
NBC
Blindspot - Still one of the strongest newbies even if it hasn't been as strong lately and it's also getting a big DVR boost which proves it's more than a timeslot hit. It's not a runaway hit but it's one of the biggest new shows in a season full of underperformers. 85%
Best Time Ever with Neil Patrick Harris - I know this hasn't been much of a success but I could still see it coming back in some capacity (for the Olympics? as a run of holiday specials?) 50%
Heroes: Reborn - This is getting weaker with each passing week so NBC can easily say it was a limited series without having to admit they would have found a way to continue it if it had been a hit. 25%
Truth Be Told/The Player - Two more shows that have had their episode order cut and therefore, essentially cancelled. 1%
FOX
Rosewood - It's certainly doing the best of any new FOX show but most think (probably correctly) that it's because it's the lead-in to Empire. If it stays with Empire all season, however, that might be enough. 70%
The Grinder - It's a toss-up between The Grinder and Grandfathered as to which one has a better chance. Reality is it will probably end up being neither but FOX seems slightly more committed to The Grinder despite slightly lower ratings. 25%
Grandfathered - See what I said about The Grinder and shave off a little bit of a chance. It was a win for both of these shows to get full seasons but that'll probably be it. 20%
Scream Queens - This has been a huge disappointment despite how FOX is trying to spin it. I think it's such a high profile bust, it won't be back for more. 15%
Minority Report - See Truth Be Told, The Player, Blood & Oil. 1%
Past November scorecards: 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
ABC
Dr. Ken - This has been quite a surprise on Friday nights. Despite being trashed by critics, it has proven to be the best companion to Last Man Standing yet. Who would have guessed? 80%
Quantico - Quantico was surprisingly strong out of the gate but it has lost a little steam since both in terms of buzz and ratings. I'm just not convinced in the long run that it will pan out but I still think its chances are OK. 60%
The Muppets - It got its order extended for three more episodes but was never planned as a full season. Still, it started as one of the biggest new fall shows and is now barely ahead of Dr. Ken in a far more favorable situation. If it gets renewed, it might be for reasons other than ratings. 50%
Wicked City - It had a miserable premiere but it's only been one week so that's why I like its chance just ever so slightly better. We'll at least see if there's any DVR lift, I doubt it. 3%
Blood & Oil - One of many shows to get its episode order reduced and that's the current version of cancelled for the struggling shows. 1%
CBS
Supergirl - It's only been one week but it's off to a hot start and has a long way to go before things become a problem. This is the type of show that CBS will do everything in its power to make a hit and I think they'll succeed. 90%
Limitless - This is similar to Quantico in that it got off to a pretty decent start but has cooled off a little since then. It deservedly got a full season but CBS has Supergirl and lots of veteran dramas so we'll see if there's room for this one. 65%
Life in Pieces - It got a full season but that was reportedly a debate within CBS. I think that was a win for this show and I'd be surprised if it got more than that. 40%
Code Black - Easily the weakest of the new CBS shows. It got an order for extra scripts but I don't think that will translate to episodes. We'll probably see it air its 13 episodes and then be done. 15%
NBC
Blindspot - Still one of the strongest newbies even if it hasn't been as strong lately and it's also getting a big DVR boost which proves it's more than a timeslot hit. It's not a runaway hit but it's one of the biggest new shows in a season full of underperformers. 85%
Best Time Ever with Neil Patrick Harris - I know this hasn't been much of a success but I could still see it coming back in some capacity (for the Olympics? as a run of holiday specials?) 50%
Heroes: Reborn - This is getting weaker with each passing week so NBC can easily say it was a limited series without having to admit they would have found a way to continue it if it had been a hit. 25%
Truth Be Told/The Player - Two more shows that have had their episode order cut and therefore, essentially cancelled. 1%
FOX
Rosewood - It's certainly doing the best of any new FOX show but most think (probably correctly) that it's because it's the lead-in to Empire. If it stays with Empire all season, however, that might be enough. 70%
The Grinder - It's a toss-up between The Grinder and Grandfathered as to which one has a better chance. Reality is it will probably end up being neither but FOX seems slightly more committed to The Grinder despite slightly lower ratings. 25%
Grandfathered - See what I said about The Grinder and shave off a little bit of a chance. It was a win for both of these shows to get full seasons but that'll probably be it. 20%
Scream Queens - This has been a huge disappointment despite how FOX is trying to spin it. I think it's such a high profile bust, it won't be back for more. 15%
Minority Report - See Truth Be Told, The Player, Blood & Oil. 1%
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