Here is the Freshman Scorecard for April. As always, these are ranked from best to worst chance for survival. By the time the May scorecard rolls around, we can add A.D. and American Odyssey to the list and we'll be awfully close to upfronts!
Past April scorecards: 2014 2013 2012 2011
ABC
How to Get Away with Murder - Ended its season in February but sure to come back as the shortened seasons is because of Viola Davis' contract. 99%
Black-ish - The other sure bet to come back. Who knows where but I wouldn't be surprised to see it return to Wednesdays at 9:30pm. 99%
Fresh Off the Boat - It has continued to drop but I think it built up enough goodwill early on to get a second season. They need to open up a second family comedy block somewhere. 75%
Secrets and Lies - It had a very weak debut but it hasn't totally died on Sunday nights. It's arguably done better than expected in recent weeks in a difficult slot and that might give it a chance. I'm still pretty skeptical though. 35%
American Crime - This has less of a chance than Secrets and Lies based on ratings but I wouldn't count it completely out thanks to the critical acclaim. I still think a second season is very unlikely. 20%
Cristela - It had a chance to fly on its own on Friday and failed with a series low. It has held on all season but a second season seems a real long-shot. 15%
Forever - Another show that has held on all season but doesn't really have a chance for a second year. It's the drama version of Cristela. 15%
In an Instant - I mean, I guess it could come back on Saturdays. But I doubt it. 10%
Marvel's Agent Carter - It was a filler show and I don't think it did enough to get a second chance, especially with the Marvel brand not really working for ABC. 10%
Galavant - Even less of a chance for a filler winter series than Agent Carter. 5%
Selfie/Manhattan Love Story - Cancelled.
CBS
Madam Secretary/Scorpion/NCIS: New Orleans - Renewed.
The Odd Couple - It has performed better than I thought and CBS is proudly billing it as "TV's Number One New Comedy." I don't think it's going to fall apart enough in future weeks to not get a renewal. It benefited from its late start. 85%
CSI: Cyber - CSI: Cyber has been a big disappointment on Wednesday as its skewing super old and CBS doesn't need another show like that. I wouldn't completely count it out because of the name, but I doubt it returns. 25%
Stalker - It's returning for a three week run on Mondays at 9pm in May. I suppose it could conceivably do something to get it a second year but CBS doesn't really have the space nor does Stalker have any momentum. 15%
Battle Creek - After a DOA premiere, it's just riding it out on Sunday nights because CBS has nothing better to put there. 2%
The McCarthys - Effectively cancelled by being pulled before airing all of its episodes. 1%
NBC
The Mysteries of Laura - It has been such a miserable year for new NBC shows. Unless American Odyssey can be a surprise on Sunday nights, this could be a mercy save so NBC doesn't have to cancel all its newbies. It doesn't deserve it, though. 50%
One Big Happy - The only other possible face-save renewal, its series low at a 1.2 (after three weeks) is so far the highest "low" from a new NBC show. That's how bad it's been. I doubt this has a chance, but it has a better one than the shows listed below. 25%
Constantine/State of Affairs/Marry Me/The Slap - None of these shows have officially been cancelled, but none of them have a chance to return. 1%
Allegiance/A to Z/Bad Judge - Cancelled.
FOX
Empire/Gotham - Renewed.
World's Funniest Fails - I think it has a pretty decent chance of returning to Fridays at some point next season. 65%
Backstrom - No chance for renewal especially since FOX got a successful new pair of dramas in Empire and Gotham. There's no reason to renew a lowly procedural like this one. 15%
Weird Loners - Its premiere tied for the lowest in-season demo premiere on the big four networks of all time. That's DOA if I've ever seen it. 1%
Mulaney/Red Band Society/Utopia/Gracepoint - Cancelled.
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