FRESHMAN SCORECARD: October 2014

Welcome to the Freshman Scorecard of 2014-15. Each network's new shows are ranked from what I see as best to worst chance for survival to a second season. I didn't include the two new ABC comedies, Selfie and Manhattan Love Story because the ratings haven't come in, but I don't think they have much of a chance. The October scorecard is hard because shows are so new, but here goes. By November, I'll be able to add Stalker, Bad Judge, A to Z, Gracepoint, Mulaney, Cristela, Marry Me, Constantine, and The McCarthys to the list. Plus, we'll probably have the first cancellation of the season by then.

This year, I'm adding a percentage chance at the end of each description (purely my opinion).

Past October scorecards: 2013    2012    2011    2010

ABC

Black-ish - Yes, I know How to Get Away with Murder is the show du jour and deservedly so. But right now, I think Black-ish has the best chance for survival because it also had a great debut and it seems the most likely to sustain momentum. 95% 

How to Get Away with Murder - How to Get Away with Murder just posted the biggest gain ever for Live + 3 DVR ratings and it already had one of the top performances of any show in the overnights. I worry about a decline for this show, but it's got so far to go, it would have to evaporate quickly. 90%

Forever - Though it isn't anywhere near the two shows above it, I wouldn't rule this show out. The growth from Monday to Tuesday was mighty impressive. If it can survive in the difficult Tuesday 10pm slot, ABC might allow it to get by with lower ratings. 55%

CBS

NCIS: New Orleans - A strong debut and nestled in a very cozy timeslot, NCIS: New Orleans just seems "too big to fail." It would have to really fall apart to not get renewed and I just don't see how that happens in its current slot. 97%

Scorpion - The biggest surprise in the ratings yet for me was Scorpion's fantastic week two hold. With a much lower lead-in and middling reviews, I thought it would drop like a rock. It didn't, and that's a very good sign. 75%

Madam Secretary - Just like Forever, this is at the bottom of the list but I wouldn't rule it out. It has strong total viewer numbers and if it attracts the upscale audience, it has a real chance. CBS seems to really want this to work and that always counts for something. 55%

NBC

The Mysteries of Laura - Believe it or not, Laura is the only new show NBC has premiered so far. I'd put it at 50/50 right now. It surprised in total viewers in week two but dropped hard in the demo. A lot depends on how the other new shows go. 50%

FOX

Gotham - Considering how bad FOX's lineup is going, this would have to self implode to get cancelled. I bet we'll see a very early season two renewal as it is one of the only FOX shows with any sort of pulse. 99%

Red Band Society - The ratins are pretty terrible on Wednesday so I don't see it really making it, but the rules are different on FOX where most everything is in dire straits. I still don't really like it's chance, but I'm not counting it out completely. 35%

Utopia - As good as dead. The question is how long it will air. Season two is out of the question. 1%