FALL PREVIEW: TUESDAY

TUESDAY OVERVIEW

ABC and FOX are making major overhauls on Tuesdays while first place CBS and NBC stay intact. Tuesday at 8pm is one of the most interesting timeslot competitions this fall as the veteran hit drama NCIS faces the hot new show from last year Glee, a reliable performer in The Biggest Loser and the intriguing newcomer No Ordinary Family. The winner of this battle will no doubt help their network for the rest of the night.


ABC
8:00 NO ORDINARY FAMILY
9:00 Dancing with the Stars: The Results (11th edition)
10:00 DETROIT 1-8-7
ABC makes some major adjustments to Tuesdays nights in the post-Lost schedule. Leading off is one of the most intriguing new fall shows, No Ordinary Family. Although the hype has been strong, critical reactions seem underwhelming so far and its in a tough timeslot. It is likely looking at third in viewers and the 18-49 demo and if it fails to catch on, could even drop to fourth behind NBC. However, if it hits big, it has a chance of overtaking NCIS in the demo or Glee in total viewers. ABC slides the results edition of Dancing with the Stars back to 9pm after it ran at 8pm this spring. I had predicted they would leave it at 8pm and launch comedies at 9pm but that didn't happen. Instead, it will be sandwiched between new shows but it's a stand alone hit. It should be second in total viewers and will battle NCIS: Los Angeles for first in the demo. ABC is trying to recreate the magic of NYPD Blue at 10pm with the cop show Detroit 1-8-7. It's a risk but it could be a hit if viewers are looking for a more traditional cop show. ABC would probably be content with a second place finish in viewers behind CBS and second in the demo behind NBC.

CBS
8:00 NCIS (8th season)
9:00 NCIS: Los Angeles (2nd season)
10:00 The Good Wife (2nd season)
CBS brings its highly rated lineup back in tact and will be happy to have a break from the American Idol competition this fall. TV's number one drama (in total viewers), NCIS, returns at 8pm. NCIS does especially strong numbers in the fall without the Idol competition and it won't be vying for the same viewers as Glee. If it can hold off No Ordinary Family, it should easily win in total viewers and have a close race with Glee for the demo. TV's #1 new show from last season, the spinoff NCIS: Los Angeles remains at 9pm. CBS probably hopes it stays strong so it can kick off a different night in 2011. Look for an total viewers win and a close demo competition with Dancing with the Stars. Fellow sophomore The Good Wife returns at 10pm. Although it skews even older than the old-skewing dramas that proceed it, the critically acclaimed drama does well in total viewers. It will likely easily win the total viewer number but the demo is up for grabs with Parenthood and Detroit 1-8-7. A third place demo finish would not make CBS happy.

NBC
8:00 The Biggest Loser (10th edition)
10:00 Parenthood (2nd season) 
Tuesday is the only night that NBC keeps intact from the spring. Leading off is The Biggest Loser, one of NBC's most consistent performers but not a huge hit. The 8pm hour will be even more difficult this fall and if No Ordinary Family succeeds, it could be looking at fourth in viewers and the demo but it should move up to third in the 9pm hour, beating FOX's comedies at least in total viewers. The numbers won't be great but NBC has bigger worries on other nights. The critically acclaimed Parenthood returns at 10pm. Its first season developed a loyal but small crowd and a fairly good demo. It could eke out a win in the demo but might also fall to third in total viewers depending on how well Detroit 1-8-7 does.

FOX
8:00 Glee (2nd season)
9:00 RAISING HOPE
9:30 RUNNING WILDE

FOX is more aggressive on Tuesday than any other night this fall. Leading off is the breakout hit from last year Glee which soared in the ratings once it started following American Idol. But it was not a runaway hit in the fall and now it must lead off the night. It should reliably come in second in total viewers and could regularly win the demo against the old-skewing NCIS.  FOX is hoping that No Ordinary Family does not hit for ABC. Glee leads into two brand new sitcoms, a rarity for the cartoon-dominated FOX. Both shows will be tough sells in tough timeslots but could develop small loyal audiences. Raising Hope seems to have more broad appeal and critical acclaim but Running Wilde could develop a cult following. Still it is a tough timeslot and it will be a hard go for these two comedies. Fourth place in viewers is likely with a slim chance for third in the demo.

New Tuesday Show Survival Chances
No Ordinary Family (ABC) - Fair, it will need to be a quality show to win viewers in a tough timeslot
Detroit 1-8-7 (ABC) - Good, I think audiences are ready for a new gritty cop show
Raising Hope (FOX) - Fair, the critical acclaim may be enough for it to survive low ratings
Running Wilde (FOX) - Poor, the ratings won't be there and it doesn't seem to be a big critical hit