FALL PREVIEW: MONDAY

All this week I will be previewing the networks new fall schedules, night by night and today we look at Monday night.

MONDAY OVERVIEW

Monday is always one of the most competitive nights of the week and this season is no different as some long-running popular shows (Dancing with the Stars, Two and a Half Men, House) are joined by some of the fall's most buzzworthy new shows (The Event, Hawaii Five-0, Lone Star). As with every fall, there will be considerable competition from ESPN's Monday Night Football especially for male viewers.

ABC
8:00 Dancing with the Stars (11th edition)
10:00 Castle (3rd season) 
ABC is the only network not making any Monday changes as it brings back its team of Dancing with the Stars and Castle with The Bachelor filling in-between the two Dancing installments starting in January. It may be hard for Dancing to reach last year's levels with buzzworthy contestants like Kate Gosselin and Pam Anderson but with Bristol Palin and The Situation, it should remain a popular choice for viewers. Expect it to win the total viewer number (possibly dropping to second in the 9pm hour) and a second place finish in the 18-49 demo. Castle performed best following The Bachelor but also does well when it follows Dancing. Look for a second place finish in total viewers and the demo.

CBS
8:00 How I Met Your Mother (6th season)
8:30 Rules of Engagement (5th season)
9:00 Two and a Half Men (8th season)
9:30 MIKE & MOLLY
10:00 HAWAII FIVE-0 

CBS has been programming comedies on Monday nights since the 1950s and this year is no exception. How I Met Your Mother and Rules of Engagement continue to lead off the night. Mother slipped a bit in the spring after a hot start while Rules gets its first full season order in its five year history. The two of them should be consistent but probably only third in both total viewers and the demo. They are followed by the #1 sitcom on TV, Two and a Half Men, which gets a new companion this fall in Mike & Molly about a couple who eats at Overeaters Anonymous. CBS had a very dynamic pairing this year in Men and The Big Bang Theory, but they sent Big Bang to Thursdays to launch the new show. Men should come in first in total viewers and the demo and even if Mike & Molly slips a bit from Big Bang numbers, it should still win the demo with a good chance at total viewers. At 10pm, CBS launches the flashy new remake of the 1970s hit show Hawaii Five-0. Expect a hot start for this show and if it lives up to expectations, it should perform significantly higher than the fading CSI: Miami did last season. A total viewer and demo win is expected for one of the fall's most talked about new shows.

NBC
8:00 Chuck (4th season)
9:00 THE EVENT
10:00 CHASE 

NBC had to be aggressive in their scheduling after a disastrous 2009-2010 season and that is very evident on Mondays. Given all the overhauling, it was surprising that the low-rated Chuck remained the lead-off on this night. Ordered for only 13 episodes, it seems likely that barring a ratings miracle or huge failures from NBC's new crop, that will be it. It will likely continue to finish fourth in viewers and the demo. The Event is one of NBC's most hyped and advertised new shows but it will be a tough sell, being a serialized drama. Look for a big premiere, but unless it captures viewers the way Lost did, it will likely compete with FOX's Lone Star for third place in the viewers and demo. Jerry Bruckheimer's Chase follows at 10pm and is a more traditional drama. It has not been heavily promoted and with the male-skewing Monday Night Football on ESPN and the more intriguing Hawaii Five-0 on CBS, it's unlikely Chase would finish above third place in viewers or the demo.

FOX
8:00 House (7th season)
9:00 LONE STAR  

FOX is keeping one of its most reliable hits to lead off while launching an ambitious new drama that has some buzz but doesn't fit the FOX brand. Long-running House leads off at 8pm. Although the aging drama ebbed a bit in the ratings, its critically acclaimed finale should keep fans coming back for season seven. A second place finish in total viewers and a close battle for the demo win with Dancing with the Stars should continue. At 9pm is the critically buzzed Lone Star. It may have a tough time finding an audience though and will be competing with NBC's The Event to pull away viewers from Dancing and CBS's comedies. Probably the best case scenario is numbers close to the cancelled 24, but they'll probably be a bit lower than that.

New Monday Shows Survival Chances
Mike & Molly (CBS) - Very Good, thanks to Chuck Lorre brand and great timeslot
Hawaii Five-0 (CBS) - Good, it should be a hit with viewers but critics will never be a fan
The Event (NBC) - Fair, it will need to find a way to keep casual viewers interested
Chase (NBC) - Poor, tough timeslot and not very buzzed
Lone Star (FOX) - Fair, the critical buzz might be enough to save it even if numbers are low