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Wednesday, February 1, 2017

FRESHMAN SCORECARD: February 2017

Here is the February Freshman Scorecard! Premiering in February are Superior Donuts (CBS, Feb 2), Training Day (CBS, Feb 2), Powerless (NBC, Feb 2), 24: Legacy (FOX, Feb 5), APB (FOX, Feb 6), Doubt (CBS, Feb 15), The Blacklist: Redemption (NBC, Feb 23), and Taken (NBC, Feb 27).

Past February Scorecards: 2016   2015   2014   2013   2012   2011










NEARLY A SURE BET
Speechless
It seems as though Speechless has separated itself from the pack a bit since the last scorecard. It has continued to do very well on Wednesday and continues to have more critical buzz than other ABC newbies. I don't see any scenario where it doesn't get a second season, the bigger question is whether it stays on Wednesdays at 8:30.

IT'S LOOKING GOOD
American Housewife, Designated Survivor
I still think both of these shows are definitely coming back, I would just put their chances just ever so slightly behind Speechless. American Housewife has lost a little bit of steam in the sense that it's no longer building on The Middle but its doing well. Designated Survivor is off until March which seems risky for a new show that hadn't completely found its footing yet.

POSSIBLE FILLER
Big Fan

If this comes back, it will be as filler. There's probably more episodes already made that will appear at some point. We'll see.

NO CHANCE
Notorious, Conviction
Both shows have already finished their runs and will definitely not come back.








A SURE THING
Kevin Can Wait, Bull
Kevin Can Wait is one of the most successful new shows and will 100% be coming back. I think Bull is just as safe despite lower ratings. CBS has much bigger drama concerns with some veteran shows and Bull continues to be one of the top newbies in total viewers. Of course it will come back.

THE GROWING BUBBLE
MacGyver, Man with a Plan, The Great Indoors, Hunted
The bubble for CBS has grown since I last did a scorecard. MacGyver and Man with a Plan still have a decent chance as they have held steady (or grown in Man's case) during the winter. The Great Indoors has looked better in recent weeks after a really rough start. Hunted has aired just one Wednesday episode but seems like it could be OK filler. If I had to guess, I would say MacGyver, Man with a Plan, and The Great Indoors are all coming back. Hunted, I'm not sure.

DOUBTFUL BUT IT IS SATURDAY
Ransom
Like the heading says, this seems unlikely to come back but I don't really know what CBS expects with a Saturday show.

NO CHANCE
Pure Genius
With a ton of bubble shows and some still to premiere, Pure Genius has quietly ended its season and will not be coming back.













OFFICIALLY RENEWED
This is Us, The Good Place
Two of the NBC freshman got official renewals this month: TV's top new show This is Us and the cult hit The Good Place. It's been a good year for NBC.

THE NEXT RENEWAL
The Wall
With two freshman already renewed, I'm pretty convinced The Wall will be the next one by NBC. The game show has proved to be more than adequate as a filler for The Voice and will certainly be back in one way or another.

NO RENEWAL COMING
Timeless, Emerald City
These two dramas are glaring weaknesses on a very solid NBC lineup. Timeless has continued to inch downwards while Emerald City has been a flop on Fridays. NBC has no room for these two shows.













IT'S LOOKING GOOD
Lethal Weapon, The Mick, Star
In a year where pretty much nothing has gone right for FOX, the bar is pretty low to get renewed and these three shows seem to have cleared that bar. Lethal Weapon is pretty much a sure thing while I think midseason newbies The Mick and Star have both done enough and built up enough good will to get renewed even if they continue to drop before the season ends.

ONE OR TWO OF THESE COULD SNEAK THROUGH
Son of Zorn, Pitch, The Exorcist, My Kitchen Rules
I'm starting to think at least one of these might get a renewal and my first bet would be either Son of Zorn or perhaps the cheap My Kitchen Rules. I definitely don't think all four of thee shows will get renewed and if they have some midseason success, then perhaps all four go. But I think at least one is going to survive.










RENEWAL BY DEFAULT?
Riverdale
The complete failure of fall freshmen Frequency and No Tomorrow could be the reason Riverdale gets a renewal if it can just stay above consistently hitting 0.2 demos. But with only a 0.5 premiere, who knows. This may end up being as big a bomb as the two shows listed below.

ONLY STREAMING COULD SAVE THEM
Frequency, No Tomorrow
These two shows are as good as done unless they show an unbelievable life on Netflix soon and I don't see that happening.

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