Here is my freshman scorecard for February 2015. As always, these are ranked by my opinion of best to worst chance for survival. Premiering over the next month are Fresh Off the Boat on ABC, Allegiance and The Slap on NBC, and The Odd Couple on CBS.
Past February scorecards: 2014 2013 2012 2011
ABC
How to Get Away with Murder - It came back pretty strong even if it's not quite the runaway hit it appeared to be the first couple weeks. TGIT is the best thing to happen to ABC in years so there's no way this is not coming back. 99%
Black-ish - Black-ish has taken a hit from Empire in recent weeks but it's still been the best companion Modern Family has ever had. ABC might look to move it next season though if Empire stays on Wednesdays. 98%
Cristela - It was looking pretty dire for this show in December, but it has shown a little life in January. I still think it's an uphill climb, but I wouldn't count it out completely. 30%
Forever - The best thing this show has going for it is it has been steady since November after shows have been instant bombs in the same slot last year. That's enough to keep it on the air, but not enough to get it another season. 15%
Marvel's Agent Carter - It had a quiet start and then it has continued to sink ever since, even going behind the disappointing Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. numbers. I think it'll drop even more in the next couple weeks and that should seal its fate. 10%
Galavant - It had a surprising start but that evaporated quickly on Sunday nights. It was an interesting experiment but it always felt like a burn-off from ABC. 10%
Selfie/Manhattan Love Story - Cancelled
CBS
NCIS: New Orleans/Madam Secretary/Scorpion - Renewed
Stalker - The writing was on the wall for this show when it didn't get a renewal alongside the other three new dramas. In a lesser year for CBS dramas (like last year), it might have had a chance. But when you have three hit new dramas alongside the many returning ones, it's not happening. 15%
The McCarthys - I actually thought this wasn't doing all that bad on Thursday nights after a rough start, but it seems like CBS has already given up on this show. They don't even have its last two episodes scheduled which is always a bad sign. 10%
NBC
The Mysteries of Laura - It's still the only NBC show that has had somewhat of a pulse and that helps its chances. But if any of its new midseason shows make an impact, this show could be in trouble because it's been on a downward trend. 50%
Constantine - It's chugging along on Friday and ending soon after half a season. NBC will almost certainly try yet another pairing with Grimm next fall. 5%
State of Affairs/Marry Me - These are dead shows walking and there's no way they come back after the new depths they've been exploring recently. 1%
Bad Judge/A to Z - Cancelled
FOX
Empire/Gotham - Renewed
World's Funniest Fails - It has been a surprising Friday night performer. Granted it's hovering around a 1.0 demo, but that's better than Utopia, Red Band Society, Mulaney, and Gracepoint. Plus it's on Fridays and cheap to make. I could easily see it getting another season. 70%
Backstrom - It had an OK debut but collapsed in week two against Scandal and it could get worse this week against The Blacklist. It may not be the instant bomb that Rake was, but I don't like its chances. 20%
Mulaney/Red Band Society/Utopia/Gracepoint - Cancelled
Past February scorecards: 2014 2013 2012 2011
ABC
How to Get Away with Murder - It came back pretty strong even if it's not quite the runaway hit it appeared to be the first couple weeks. TGIT is the best thing to happen to ABC in years so there's no way this is not coming back. 99%
Black-ish - Black-ish has taken a hit from Empire in recent weeks but it's still been the best companion Modern Family has ever had. ABC might look to move it next season though if Empire stays on Wednesdays. 98%
Cristela - It was looking pretty dire for this show in December, but it has shown a little life in January. I still think it's an uphill climb, but I wouldn't count it out completely. 30%
Forever - The best thing this show has going for it is it has been steady since November after shows have been instant bombs in the same slot last year. That's enough to keep it on the air, but not enough to get it another season. 15%
Marvel's Agent Carter - It had a quiet start and then it has continued to sink ever since, even going behind the disappointing Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. numbers. I think it'll drop even more in the next couple weeks and that should seal its fate. 10%
Galavant - It had a surprising start but that evaporated quickly on Sunday nights. It was an interesting experiment but it always felt like a burn-off from ABC. 10%
Selfie/Manhattan Love Story - Cancelled
CBS
NCIS: New Orleans/Madam Secretary/Scorpion - Renewed
Stalker - The writing was on the wall for this show when it didn't get a renewal alongside the other three new dramas. In a lesser year for CBS dramas (like last year), it might have had a chance. But when you have three hit new dramas alongside the many returning ones, it's not happening. 15%
The McCarthys - I actually thought this wasn't doing all that bad on Thursday nights after a rough start, but it seems like CBS has already given up on this show. They don't even have its last two episodes scheduled which is always a bad sign. 10%
NBC
The Mysteries of Laura - It's still the only NBC show that has had somewhat of a pulse and that helps its chances. But if any of its new midseason shows make an impact, this show could be in trouble because it's been on a downward trend. 50%
Constantine - It's chugging along on Friday and ending soon after half a season. NBC will almost certainly try yet another pairing with Grimm next fall. 5%
State of Affairs/Marry Me - These are dead shows walking and there's no way they come back after the new depths they've been exploring recently. 1%
Bad Judge/A to Z - Cancelled
FOX
Empire/Gotham - Renewed
World's Funniest Fails - It has been a surprising Friday night performer. Granted it's hovering around a 1.0 demo, but that's better than Utopia, Red Band Society, Mulaney, and Gracepoint. Plus it's on Fridays and cheap to make. I could easily see it getting another season. 70%
Backstrom - It had an OK debut but collapsed in week two against Scandal and it could get worse this week against The Blacklist. It may not be the instant bomb that Rake was, but I don't like its chances. 20%
Mulaney/Red Band Society/Utopia/Gracepoint - Cancelled
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