FALL PREVIEW 2012: Wednesday

Continuing my Fall Preview, this week I will look at Wednesday which has two networks not changing anything from last fall and two networks shaking some things up. If interested, check out my Wednesday preview from last year and 2010.

ABC
8:00 The Middle (4th season)
8:30 THE NEIGHBORS
9:00 Modern Family (4th season)
9:30 Suburgatory (2nd season)
10:00 NASHVILLE

ABC launched a comedy block from scratch in 2009 and has slowly been building it up. They have two of their original shows - The Middle and Modern Family as solid anchors. The Middle has done well leading off the night and grown a little bit each year while Modern Family is one of the top rated shows on TV. They finally found a successful half hour show in Suburgatory last year. It was originally scheduled to continue airing with The Middle in a very compatible 8pm hour. But instead, it will get a chance to air behind Modern Family. It seems like a better fit out of Family than Cougar Town, Happy Endings, or Don't Trust the B--- in Apartment 23 and might see major growth in year two. The originally planned 9:30pm occupant has been shifted to 8:30pm and some think it's because the show is destined to tank. The Neighbors looks like an odd show for 2012 and hopes are not too high but we'll see. Revenge finally solved ABC's constant 10pm problems but it has been moved to Sunday. In its place is the glitzy soap Nashville which has gotten the best buzz of any show in an supposedly underwhelming year for new shows. This slot was tough for ABC before Revenge but there are a lot of country music fans out there and this one looks like a winner.

CBS
8:00 Survivor (25th edition)
9:00 Criminal Minds (8th season)
10:00 CSI (13th season)

Tuesday is the night of veterans for CBS as every show here has been on the air since at least 2005. At 8pm, Survivor is now in its 25th (!) edition. It showed some signs of slowing down in the spring and if that continues, CBS might want to start thinking about making this show once a year on its crowded schedule to keep it fresher. At 9pm is veteran drama Criminal Minds which shows no signs of slowing down though it loses cast member Paget Brewster and adds Jeanne Tripplehorn this year. At 10pm is CSI, which had a successful move to Wednesday last year as the show was revitalized a bit with the addition of Ted Danson. Against two rookie shows, CSI should continue to do well in its 13th season. This night is a moderl of stability for the most stable network but Survivor should be watched because it showed some signs of age while the dramas didn't.

NBC
8:00 ANIMAL PRACTICE
8:30 GUYS WITH KIDS
9:00 Law & Order: SVU (14th season)
10:00 CHICAGO FIRE

NBC is surrounding TV's current longest running drama with three new shows on Wednesday night. The 8pm comedies are tough sells for NBC - Animal Practice has not gotten good buzz and seems like a niche show at best and an outright flop at worst while Guys with Kids seems out of place as a multicam comedy and has dealt with bad reviews of its own. I wouldn't be shocked to see NBC yank Animal Practice sooner rather than later and try to pair Guys with Kids with Whitney for a multicam hour. At 9pm is the veteran drama Law & Order: SVU. The show might benefit from not competing with CSI anymore though it will still have to deal with Criminal Minds. The show hit some series lows last year and this might be its final season if it can't improve. At 10pm is the new Dick Wolf ensemble drama Chicago Fire. While it might seem like a broadly accessible show, it has gotten little to no buzz and has to compete with popular veteran CSI and much more interesting newcomer Nashville. Wednesdays could be rough for NBC.

FOX
8:00 The X Factor (2nd season)

FOX is keeping its Wednesday in tact with The X Factor in the fall and American Idol in the spring. Early signs from its premiere this week indicate that The X Factor will be no better this year and might drop. Though it's not doing poorly, I wonder if FOX really should be devoting an hour and a half to this show in the fall when it needs some new scripted hits. If American Idol swoons again, FOX could be getting old fast with its shows and very few new ones to replace them. If I'm FOX, I would reduce this to one hour each day next fall.

New Wednesday Show Survival Chances
The Neighbors (ABC) - Poor. It looks like it could be the worst new show of the season and I just don't see ABC being very patient with it with several shows in the wings. If it starts bringing Modern Family down, it will be gone awfully fast.
Nashville (ABC) - Good. I'm still skeptical of ABC moving the one show that worked on Wednesday at 10pm (Revenge) but if they really wanted to do that, this is a good replacement. Nashville could do quite well in this slot (though I would have tried it after Dancing with the Stars on Monday!)
Animal Practice (NBC) - Very Poor. I just don't see this one working at all. The bigger question is what will get cancelled first, this or The Neighbors? My money is on this show, which could be the first cancellation of the season. People didn't like it during the Olympics and they'll like it less now.
Guys with Kids (NBC) - Poor. I think this one has a slightly better chance of surviving than Animal Practice only because it's more broadly appealing. But multicam sitcoms don't tend to have luck with NBC lately. If it's paired with Whitney on Wednesdays or Fridays, it may have a slightly better chance but still not much of one.