FALL PREVIEW 2011: Wednesday

Wednesday is a busy night as usual for the networks. ABC will have a lineup of comedies followed by another drama attempt at 10pm. CBS has a trio of veteran hits. NBC is gambling with a comedy hour at 8pm followed by crime dramas. And FOX has the show that many are predicting to be the biggest hit of the fall season featuring some familiar faces.

ABC
8:00 The Middle (3rd season)
8:30 SUBURGATORY
9:00 Modern Family (3rd season)
9:30 Happy Endings (2nd season)
10:00 REVENGE

ABC has its tentpoles in its comedy block that they launched from scratch two years ago - Modern Family is a huge hit and The Middle has a loyal and decent audience and proved to be a good kickoff show last season. However, the 8:30 and 9:30 times have proven difficult so far. At 8:30pm this year they will try new comedy Suburgatory which seems to have a similar tone to The Middle and might be the best companion to that show yet. Following Modern Family is second year comedy Happy Endings which exceeded expectations at 10pm in the spring but hasn't had great repeat numbers this summer. ABC really wants this show to succeed but I'm skeptical it can do any better than the shelved-for-midseason Cougar Town did. Another big question is will Modern Family and The Middle suffer against The X-Factor like they do against American Idol? Probably not as much. At 10pm is another new drama attempt. Revenge will try to do what Eastwick, Happy Town, The Whole Truth, and Off the Map could not do in this slot in the last two seasons. It has an interesting but likely narrow premise so don't expect much against two veteran favorites on the competing networks.

CBS
8:00 Survivor (23rd Edition)
9:00 Criminal Minds (7th season)
10:00 CSI (12th season)

CBS is the home of veteran shows on Wednesday night with some long running tentpoles all airing together. Survivor made a smooth transition to Wednesday night and can hold its own against decent competition on FOX and ABC so it will continue in the same slot. Criminal Minds continues to air in the only slot it has ever known and will bring cast members AJ Cook and Paget Brewster back which has pleased fans. It seems to be a steady performer regardless of the competition. Finally, just as Survivor moved last season, CSI moves from its longtime Thursday home. It has been airing on Thursday at 9pm since 2001 but will make the move after years of declining numbers. It still has force and should be able to snag the total viewer crown but will likely cede the demo to NBC's fellow long runner Law & Order: SVU. Still, it was time for a move for CSI and with Ted Danson coming on board, it might have some fresh life.


NBC
8:00 UP ALL NIGHT
8:30 FREE AGENTS
9:00 Harry's Law (2nd season)
10:00 Law & Order: SVU (13th season)

NBC is boldly going with a comedy hour at 8pm for the fall. The timeslot has been a disaster for NBC for years and it will certainly be a rough go for these comedies. It would be interesting to know what NBC expects for numbers from these shows because they will almost certainly be fourth in both viewers and the demo. Free Agents is my pick for the first cancellation of the new season but I don't think they'll give up on Up All Night quite as easily. At 9pm is second year drama Harry's Law. The show was a self starter on Monday night but skewed ancient and now it has major competition from the other three networks including two potential top demo draws on any night (Modern Family and X-Factor). It will be hard for the Kathy Bates drama to find a footing in this slot unless it can find enough total viewers to offset a surely bad demo. At 10pm is veteran crime drama Law & Order: SVU which always does better at 10pm than 9pm. Chris Meloni left the show after last season and they brought on new cast members Danny Pino and Kelli Giddish. SVU should be able to win the demo in the crime drama battle with CSI but won't probably take total viewers. Still, it remains one of NBC's biggest hits in its thirteenth season.

FOX
8:00 THE X-FACTOR

FOX is using the American Idol slot to launch its new can't-miss reality competition. With former Idol stars Simon Cowell and Paula Abdul back together again, FOX is counting on The X-Factor to be the fall's answer to American Idol and give them year-round domination. Part of me thinks that it won't quite be able to live up to the hype especially with NBC's The Voice stealing some of its thunder in late spring/early summer. Still, it will certainly be a hit. It just may not be at Idol levels. But we'll see. Some think it might even be able to exceed Idol's recent numbers. Starting at the end of November, the Jamie Pressley sitcom I Hate My Teenage Daughter will air at 9:30pm.

New Wednesday Show Survival Chances
Suburgatory (ABC) - Good. This seems like a better companion to The Middle than Hank or Better With You. Something's got to work one of these times, right?
Revenge (ABC) - Poor. Against two long time favorites and in a timeslot that ABC just can't get to work, Revenge isn't going to make it.
Up All Night (NBC) - Fair. I'd say "Poor" but I think NBC will move this to Thursday sooner rather than later when things inevitably don't work out in the 8pm hour.
Free Agents (NBC) - Very Poor. As I said before, this is my prediction for the first cancellation of the new season.
The X-Factor (FOX) - Excellent. Even if it isn't as big as everyone thinks, it will still be big. FOX now won't have to stumble through the fall and wait for Idol.