Here is my April Freshman Scorecard. As always, these are ordered by my opinion of best to worst chance for survival. Premiering in April is Game of Silence (NBC, April 12), Strong (NBC, April 13), and American Grit (FOX, April 14).
Past April scorecards: 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
ABC
Quantico - Renewed.
Dr. Ken - This should definitely get a renewal over pretty much anything else from ABC's troubled class of freshmen. It has been the best pair with Last Man Standing yet. 85%
Bachelor Live - I definitely see this coming back for a limited run next winter after The Bachelor. 80%
The Real O'Neals - I feel like this show's chances are going up with each week that it stays at a 1.0 demo and pairs up well with Fresh Off the Boat. Still, ABC has a lot of comedy already renewed and they may just opt for new shows especially with a new regime. 50%
The Great Holiday Baking Show - Could definitely be winter filler or they might do something else. It's always hard to predict shows like this. 50%
The Catch - Seems very unlikely to return after a disappointing debut followed by a drop even when its lead-in went up. Its back to the drawing board for what to do when How to Get Away with Murder ends its season. 20%
The Family - A huge disappointment that is airing on the string on Sundays. 10%
The Muppets - This show barely had a chance when the old regime was in charge. No chance now. 5%
My Diet is Better Than Yours - Fillers are hard to predict but this one is not coming back. 3%
Blood & Oil - Unofficially cancelled. 1%
Wicked City/Of Kings and Prophets - Officially cancelled after airing a combined 5 weeks in the Tuesday 10pm slot.
CBS
Supergirl - CBS did not renew any freshmen with its big wave of renewals earlier this month but this one is a slam dunk for a renewal. 90%
Life in Pieces - Also seems like a slam dunk renewal unless CBS suddenly wants to get out of the single cam game, which I don't see happening. 85%
Limitless - It had a little rally with its most recent episode which would help its chance. It also may have built up enough good will early on to get a pickup but I'm still not convinced it deserves it. 65%
Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders - Could go either way. Criminal Minds is a CBS brand but they didn't hesitate cancelling Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior a few years ago. The next couple weeks are probably key here. 55%
Code Black - This will look better by comparison if Beyond Borders continues to drop and Les Moonves implied that 5 freshman may come back. In that scenario, this would be the fifth show. But I still think it's more likely cancelled than renewed. 35%
Rush Hour - With its late premiere being disappointing and plenty of other freshmen shows doing better, this doesn't stand a chance. 10%
Angel From Hell - Cancelled.
NBC
Blindspot/Chicago Med/Superstore/Shades of Blue/Little Big Shots - Renewed.
Heartbeat - I'm pretty sure all the shows that are going to get renewed on NBC have already been renewed but I guess Heartbeat has an outside chance if it can keep holding steady. 25%
Crowded - NBC did find a sitcom success in Superstore and they are more committed to The Carmichael Show than this one if they want to renew an underachiever. 15%
Telenovela - If this was going to get renewed, it would already have been renewed. 10%
You, Me, and the Apocalypse - No chance for this to get another go-round. 5%
Truth Be Told/The Player - Unofficially cancelled. 1%
Heroes: Reborn/Best Time Ever with Neil Patrick Harris - Officially cancelled.
FOX
Scream Queens - Renewed.
The X-Files - As everyone has said, this will come back unless details can't be ironed out with the showrunner and stars. I think they'll find a way to do it. 90%
Lucifer - I think this show has a very good chance of renewal because it has been a great fit first with The X-Files and then with Gotham. I wouldn't be surprised to see a renewal before the end of the month. 85%
Grandfathered - It's not doing well but any stretch of the imagination but it's about on par with Brooklyn Nine-Nine and it's still doing better than The Grinder. Like all year, it's a toss-up. 50%
Rosewood - Despite its recent rise with Empire, this has been exposed as a fraud after how it did without its powerful lead-out for most of March. 30%
Bordertown/Cooper Barrett's Guide to Surviving Life/The Grinder/Second Chance - I don't see any scenario where any of these come back. 2%
Minority Report - Unofficially cancelled.
Past April scorecards: 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
ABC
Quantico - Renewed.
Dr. Ken - This should definitely get a renewal over pretty much anything else from ABC's troubled class of freshmen. It has been the best pair with Last Man Standing yet. 85%
Bachelor Live - I definitely see this coming back for a limited run next winter after The Bachelor. 80%
The Real O'Neals - I feel like this show's chances are going up with each week that it stays at a 1.0 demo and pairs up well with Fresh Off the Boat. Still, ABC has a lot of comedy already renewed and they may just opt for new shows especially with a new regime. 50%
The Great Holiday Baking Show - Could definitely be winter filler or they might do something else. It's always hard to predict shows like this. 50%
The Catch - Seems very unlikely to return after a disappointing debut followed by a drop even when its lead-in went up. Its back to the drawing board for what to do when How to Get Away with Murder ends its season. 20%
The Family - A huge disappointment that is airing on the string on Sundays. 10%
The Muppets - This show barely had a chance when the old regime was in charge. No chance now. 5%
My Diet is Better Than Yours - Fillers are hard to predict but this one is not coming back. 3%
Blood & Oil - Unofficially cancelled. 1%
Wicked City/Of Kings and Prophets - Officially cancelled after airing a combined 5 weeks in the Tuesday 10pm slot.
CBS
Supergirl - CBS did not renew any freshmen with its big wave of renewals earlier this month but this one is a slam dunk for a renewal. 90%
Life in Pieces - Also seems like a slam dunk renewal unless CBS suddenly wants to get out of the single cam game, which I don't see happening. 85%
Limitless - It had a little rally with its most recent episode which would help its chance. It also may have built up enough good will early on to get a pickup but I'm still not convinced it deserves it. 65%
Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders - Could go either way. Criminal Minds is a CBS brand but they didn't hesitate cancelling Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior a few years ago. The next couple weeks are probably key here. 55%
Code Black - This will look better by comparison if Beyond Borders continues to drop and Les Moonves implied that 5 freshman may come back. In that scenario, this would be the fifth show. But I still think it's more likely cancelled than renewed. 35%
Rush Hour - With its late premiere being disappointing and plenty of other freshmen shows doing better, this doesn't stand a chance. 10%
Angel From Hell - Cancelled.
NBC
Blindspot/Chicago Med/Superstore/Shades of Blue/Little Big Shots - Renewed.
Heartbeat - I'm pretty sure all the shows that are going to get renewed on NBC have already been renewed but I guess Heartbeat has an outside chance if it can keep holding steady. 25%
Crowded - NBC did find a sitcom success in Superstore and they are more committed to The Carmichael Show than this one if they want to renew an underachiever. 15%
Telenovela - If this was going to get renewed, it would already have been renewed. 10%
You, Me, and the Apocalypse - No chance for this to get another go-round. 5%
Truth Be Told/The Player - Unofficially cancelled. 1%
Heroes: Reborn/Best Time Ever with Neil Patrick Harris - Officially cancelled.
FOX
Scream Queens - Renewed.
The X-Files - As everyone has said, this will come back unless details can't be ironed out with the showrunner and stars. I think they'll find a way to do it. 90%
Lucifer - I think this show has a very good chance of renewal because it has been a great fit first with The X-Files and then with Gotham. I wouldn't be surprised to see a renewal before the end of the month. 85%
Grandfathered - It's not doing well but any stretch of the imagination but it's about on par with Brooklyn Nine-Nine and it's still doing better than The Grinder. Like all year, it's a toss-up. 50%
Rosewood - Despite its recent rise with Empire, this has been exposed as a fraud after how it did without its powerful lead-out for most of March. 30%
Minority Report - Unofficially cancelled.
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