FRESHMAN SCORECARD: October 2015

Here is the the first entry in the Freshman Scorecard for 2015-16. Each network is ranked from best to worst chance for survival as well as what I perceive its percent chance to survive. For November, I'll be able to add Code Black, Dr. Ken, Truth Be Told, Supergirl, and Wicked City. October is always difficult because shows are so new but here we go.

Past October scorecards: 2014   2013   2012   2011   2010

ABC

The Muppets - It's week two drop was brutal but I'm still fairly confident this would hold on well enough through the fall to get a renewal. 70%

Quantico - It had a surprisingly strong debut and is probably one more good week away from being a high priority for ABC. I'm just a bit skeptical still because of the serialized nature and tough timeslot. 65%

Blood & Oil - The closest thing to DOA besides Minority Report. It's lackluster debut coupled with a lot on the bench and not a ton of needs for ABC means it's going to struggle to survive until January. 10%

CBS

Limitless - It's complete hold of the demo in its second week really surprised me. Maybe this is connecting with the newer type of CBS audience in the way that Scorpion did last year. 65%

Life in Pieces - Its retention out of The Big Bang Theory is terrible and CBS has three comedies waiting on the bench. Forget next year, it'll be lucky to survive until its planned Thursday move in November. 20%

NBC

Blindspot - Clearly the top priority for NBC, it had a very promising debut but a slightly troubling second week. Still, it's miles ahead of last year's lead-outs from The Voice. As long as it keeps The Voice as a lead-in, I think it has a very good chance. 70%

Best Time Ever with Neil Patrick Harris - NBC is certainly protecting this show by not sending it to 8pm as early as planned. I think with less weeks at 8pm, the trajectory won't be as terrible and it'll get some sort of second order. 65%

Heroes: Reborn - It had an OK debut but I'm still pretty skeptical. It's billed as a limited series and I just don't think it will hold up well enough in future weeks to be anything more than that. 35%

The Player - It seems close to DOA but I want to wait and see how The Blacklist does as its lead-in before making any final statements. Still, it's clearly the weakest new NBC show and that doesn't bode well for it. 15%

FOX

The Grinder - Both The Grinder and Grandfathered premiered to decent numbers and I'm hopeful that they'll continue to survive. I give this a slight edge because it will have more of a critical buzz and could be considered more of an overperformer. 60%

Grandfathered - Similar to what I said about The Grinder except I just feel like it's chances are just slightly smaller especially given the fact that I thought it would premiere a little higher than The Grinder. 55%

Rosewood - Rosewood easily had the best debut of any FOX show but I need to see how it does in the coming weeks to see if it can still bask in the Empire glow. It very well could but I'm just not sold yet. 50%

Scream Queens - Easily the biggest disappointment of the new season. It could still get renewed because it's extremely popular with young women and that's a coveted group but if it gets ridiculously low, and it could, that might not matter. 40%

Minority Report - The most DOA debut of the fall season and it's not even close. FOX has a lot of iffy shows but this one isn't iffy. It's dead. The question is how long it stays on the air. It could be until January but that doesn't mean its chances go up. 5%