FALL PREVIEW 2012: Thursday

Continuing the Fall Preview for the year, he is my rundown for Thursday which has some changes here and there while mostly keeping the status quo. Also check out my previews from last year and 2010.

ABC
8:00 LAST RESORT
9:00 Grey's Anatomy (9th season)
10:00 Scandal (2nd season)

ABC is once again trying a new show in the Thursday 8pm slot. Since 2009, FlashForward, The Deep End, My Generation, Charlie's Angels, and Missing have all failed in this slot. Of course, ABC proved last year that the right show can change a notoriously bad slot with Revenge. The question is, will Last Resort be that show? The reviews have been favorable but it also seems a bit convoluted and may have a hard time holding an audience. ABC has to have low expectations for this slot though, and that helps Resort's chances. At 9pm is the ninth season of hit medical drama Grey's Anatomy. After lots of drops over the years, Grey's had a revitalized spring that ABC is hoping will carry into this year. Even with the declines, it remains one of TV's top dramas. At 10pm is the sophomore season of Scandal, which had a limited but buzzy run last spring. Against a new show on CBS and a newsmagazine on NBC, the time is right for this show to grow.

CBS
8:00 The Big Bang Theory (6th season)
8:30 Two and a Half Men (10th season)
9:00 Person of Interest (2nd season)
10:00 ELEMENTARY

CBS Thursday has becoming more and more powerful and now they add some interesting elements. Leading off the night is mega hit The Big Bang Theory. TV's top scripted show soared last year thanks to syndicated episodes reaching new viewers. I wouldn't be surprised to see it go even higher this fall and see numbers this timeslot hasn't seen since Friends. Rather than launching a new comedy after it, CBS has chosen to bring Two and a Half Men over after nine seasons on Mondays for what is likely its final season. This show be a better complement to Big Bang than How to Be a Gentleman, Rules of Engagement, and Rob were last year and could really strengthen CBS on the night. Many thought CBS might go to two hours of comedy but the success of Person of Interest at 9pm helped deter that. Despite facing Grey's, Person seems poised to grow in its second season like it did for much of its first. At 10pm is the new Sherlock Holmes drama Elementary set in modern day New York. It seems like a good fit with Interest and right on brand for CBS. ABC and FOX will have some success but Thursday belongs to CBS.

NBC
8:00 30 Rock (7th season)
8:30 Up All Night (2nd season)
9:00 The Office (9th season)
9:30 Parks and Recreation (5th season)
10:00 Rock Center with Brian Williams (2nd season)

NBC had so many gaping holes in its schedule after last year, it decided to focus on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday and send Thursday to the wolves with aging, niche shows. Thursday brings the announced final seasons of 30 Rock and The Office. Both shows are well past their heyday and highest ratings but NBC is hoping that an announced final season might help a bit though that hasn't worked recently with Desperate Housewives or House. In the half hour slots are the underwhelming Up All Night which got a 13 episode renewal despite crashing in the spring and the critically loved Parks and Recreation. It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Parks as the only show from this group and Friday's comedies that will live to see the 2013-14 season. At 10pm is the newsmagazine Rock Center which could do nothing against competition last year. But NBC clearly decided to focus on the beginning part of the week and dumped Rock Center here for now. It will be interesting to see what NBC does at midseason with this night but the fall should see some scary bad numbers.

FOX
8:00 The X Factor (2nd season)
9:00 Glee (4th season)

FOX is choosing not to use The X Factor as a launching pad for a new show and has moved Glee to Thursdays instead. Early indicators from last week's season premiere was positive but CBS and ABC are dominant at 9pm and Glee could have trouble there. Speaking of trouble, The X Factor might have some as well against CBS's powerful comedy lineup. FOX is going to start sprouting leaks like NBC if they're not careful so they are hoping that The X Factor and Glee can hold up.

New Thursday Show Survival Chances
Last Resort (ABC) - Fair. After so many failed shows in this time period, I can't imagine ABC has a very high bar that this show needs to meet in the ratings. But it's still a genre show that can be a tough sell even in a time period with no similar competition. I don't think it's chances are all that great but it might surprise me like Revenge last year.
Elementary (CBS) - Good. This seems like a perfect fit for CBS' crime drama lineup and might be the most successful new drama of the season. It's interesting that all the most promising new dramas - this, Vegas, Nashville, and Revolution are all 10pm premieres as is 666 Park Avenue and Chicago Fire. 10pm is a hard time to launch shows but this one seems like it can handle the pressure.