For the last five weeks of the current blog season, I will take a look at Emmy races category by category on Tuesdays. Today, I am looking at the Outstanding Supporting Actress races in Comedy, Drama and Limited Series.
You will probably notice a trend in these posts over the next couple weeks that the comedy categories are stacked across the board. That is certainly true in the Supporting Actress category where Hannah Waddingham (Ted Lasso) will try to defend her crown. Her biggest competition is likely her biggest competition from last year: Hannah Einbinder (Hacks). Einbinder has certainly been category frauded as she is absolutely a co-lead with Jean Smart, but there was some love for Hacks last year and there might be even more love this year. Other returning contenders include Waddingham's Ted Lasso co-star Juno Temple, who arguably had a stronger second season than first. Then there's those pesky SNL ladies. I hate that SNL can take up so much of the supporting actor and actress categories but until that rule changes, you can't rule out Kate McKinnon, Cecily Strong, Aidy Bryant and perhaps even Heidi Gardner. Rosie Perez was a bit of a surprise entry from The Flight Attendant last year but I'd be surprised if she can do it twice in a row. Waddingham isn't the only returning winner to the category as two time winner Alex Borstein returns from The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. She'll probably get nominated but after losing to Annie Murphy two years ago, she seems unlikely to return to the winners' circle. Another former nominee for The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel is Marin Hinkle while Yvonne Orji (Insecure) is another returning eligible nominee returning after a year off. Then there are those who have been absent even longer. Sarah Goldberg was last eligible and nominated for Barry in 2019 while Zazie Beetz was last eligible and nominated for Atlanta way back in 2018. Goldberg seems pretty likely to get a nomination with strong critical support for Barry but response to Atlanta has been more muted so I don't think Beetz will get back in. Among potential first time nominees, one actress everyone has their eyes on is Janelle James for her breakout role in Abbott Elementary. It remains to be seen if Abbott can break through but James seems like the best bet among performers though her co-star Sheryl Lee Ralph has a chance too. Another newbie could be Amy Ryan from Only Murders in the Building but I only see her getting in if Murders turns out to get a huge haul of nominations. There's also a chance for Molly Shannon from The Other Two, but I'm not convinced that little show will be able to break through. Dark horses seem more unlikely than last year with the stacked category but some of them include recent Oscar winner Ariana DeBose or Kristin Chenoweth for Schmigadoon, Bebe Neuwirth for Julia and Holland Taylor for The Chair.
PREDICTED NOMINEES
These are listed in order of likelihood to get nominated, not necessarily to win. I'm listing eight for each category even though some categories may end up with less than eight.
1. Hannah Waddingham - Ted Lasso
2. Hannah Einbinder - Hacks
3. Sarah Goldberg - Barry
4. Alex Borstein - The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
5. Juno Temple - Ted Lasso
6. Kate McKinnon - Saturday Night Live
7. Janelle James - Abbott Elementary
8. Cecily Strong - Saturday Night Live
This is a very unique category where none of last year's nominees are eligible because most of those nominees came from The Crown and The Handmaid's Tale and both those shows won't be eligible again until next year. There are several former nominees back in action who were ineligible last year including two time winner Julia Garner for Ozark. A key player in Ozark''s final stretch of episodes, Garner certainly has a good chance to be a three time winner. Other potential returning nominees are Sarah Snook for Succession, Fiona Shaw for Killing Eve, Millie Bobby Brown for Stranger Things and Chrissy Metz for This is Us. Snook is a shoo-in for a nomination but hasn't been able to break into the Winner's Circle yet. Shaw could still get in but Killing Eve's critically maligned final season doesn't help matters. Brown is a true wildcard. She was last eligible in 2020 but hasn't been nominated since 2018 while it's been even longer for Metz, who was last nominated in 2017 but had a meaty arc in the final season of This is Us. It seems unlikely that all five possible returnees will get in but even if they do, there's still room for new nominees. Leading on that front is Jung Ho-Yeon (Squid Game) who was a surprise winner at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. A major Squid Game haul could even net a nomination for Kim Joo-ryung. Succession seems likely to get a slew of nominations which could help J. Smith-Cameron finally get in while critics have been screaming for years about Rhea Seehorn on Better Call Saul. If any actors from Euphoria can get in besides Zendaya, it seems likely to be Sydney Sweeney. Severance seems to be gaining strength as we get closer to nominations and that could bode well for Patricia Arquette. Christina Ricci is the only "older" character competing in Supporting for Yellowjackets and that could help her cause if Yellowjackets can get itself into the conversation. Similarly, a breakthrough for Yellowstone could mean a nomination for Kelly Reilly. Julianna Margulies is an Emmy darling and has a chance for The Morning Show despite mixed reviews and I'm not sure enough people watched Pachinko but if they did then Yuh-Jung Youn has a chance. If Christine Baranski can't get in for The Good Fight, a nomination for The Gilded Age seems unlikely but never say never. It's a more wide open category so dark horses include Sally Field for Winning Time, Nicola Coughlan for Bridgerton and the younger actresses on Yellowjackets. As deserving as she is and has been, I've given up hope on Susan Kelechi Watson getting nominated for This is Us.
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Julia Garner - Ozark
1. Julia Garner - Ozark
2. Sarah Snook - Succession
3. Jung Ho-Yeon - Squid Game
4. J. Smith-Cameron - Succession
5. Sydney Sweeney - Euphoria
6. Rhea Seehorn - Better Call Saul
7. Christina Ricci - Yellowjackets
8. Patricia Arquette - Severance
Since The White Lotus was able to stay in the Limited Series category despite returning for a second season, actresses from that show will be fighting for spots here as all of them are in this category with none in the lead category. They are led of course by Jennifer Coolidge, widely seen as the frontrunner in this category even though she's the one actress returning for Season 2. After that, you can never count out Connie Britton, who is an Emmy darling. Then there's also Alexandra Daddario, Sydney Sweeney, Natasha Rothwell and Molly Shannon though none of them seem as likely. Among non-White Lotus characters, Andie MacDowell received a lot of acclaim for Maid and seems likely to get in while Anika Noni Rose has a smaller chance but still a chance especially if Maid breaks through big time. Despite a surprising snub for Unbelievable two years ago, Kaitlyn Dever seems to have a good shot to get nominated for Dopesick while Rosario Dawson could slide in if there's a Dopesick landslide. Dever's co-star on Unbelievable, Toni Collette did get nominated in this category two years ago and could return for The Staircase. Julianne Nicholson won in this category as a grieving mother last year and Chloe Sevigny could get in this year for a similar role on The Girl From Plainville. If The Dropout proves to be a player in the Limited Series categories then frequent nominee Laurie Metcalf certainly has a chance. Reception has been cool on The First Lady but Ellen Burstyn is a legendary name who has a chance. It's hard to know if Hawkeye or any Marvel show will be a player this year like WandaVision was last year but if it is then Florence Pugh stands a good chance. Impeachment: American Crime Story was not well received in general but there were fans of Edie Falco as Hillary Clinton so she could be a dark horse. A couple other dark horses include Betty Gilpin for Gaslit, Melissa McCarthy for Nine Perfect Strangers and Melanie Lynskey for Candy.
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Jennifer Coolidge - The White Lotus
2. Kaitlyn Dever - Dopesick
3. Andie MacDowell - Maid
4. Connie Britton - The White Lotus
5. Laurie Metcalf - The Dropout
6. Florence Pugh - Hawkeye
7. Ellen Burstyn - The First Lady
8. Alexandra Daddario - The White Lotus
Tomorrow: A One Season Wonder look at Women of the House!
Next Tuesday: A look at the Supporting Actor Emmy Races!
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