As I continue my Emmys Preview on Tuesdays, I will be taking a look at the Lead Actor categories today!
This is a category where it feels like there are co-frontrunners as the 2021 winner - Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso) faces off against the 2018 & 2019 winner - Bill Hader (Barry), who is eligible for the first time since his 2019 win. Both will obviously get nominated. As far as the win goes, I would currently lean a little bit towards Hader with his show being more recent and Barry's third season being a little more acclaimed than Ted Lasso's second season. Beyond those two frontrunners, there are lots of others vying for a nomination. Anthony Anderson has been nominated seven times for Black-ish so it seems likely he'll get one final nomination for the farewell season. The chances seem a little more murky for the rest of the potential returning nominees. Larry David has been nominated six times for Curb Your Enthusiasm but the most recent season sort of came and went without much attention. Donald Glover has taken a backseat in terms of a leading role on the current season of Atlanta but he's still well-liked by the Academy. Don Cheadle has snuck in a couple times but Black Monday is now cancelled. Same goes for Kenan Thompson of Kenan. Among potential first time nominees, there seem to be two slam dunk nominees from the same show: Steve Martin and Martin Short for Only Murders in the Building. I think both will make it in but if only one does, my money is on Steve. Nicholas Hoult has earned a ton of praise for The Great and could get in for the second season. William Zabka and Ralph Macchio were predicted by some to get in last year for Cobra Kai and it didn't happen so this year seems less likely with more competition. Considering we're likely to get six nominees at most, the rest of the names are pretty far longshots. That includes Jake Johnson for Minx, John Cena for Peacemaker (which I have a really hard time seeing actually happen) and Rhys Darby for Our Flag Means Death.
PREDICTED NOMINEES
These are listed in order of likelihood to get nominated, not necessarily to win. I'm listing eight for each category even though several categories may end up with less than eight.
1. Bill Hader - Barry
2. Jason Sudeikis - Ted Lasso
3. Steve Martin - Only Murders in the Building
4. Martin Short - Only Murders in the Building
5. Anthony Anderson - Black-ish
6. Nicholas Hoult - The Great
7. Donald Glover - Atlanta
8. Larry David - Curb Your Enthusiasm
This is a category that could see very few new nominees with many potential returnees even though the only one who could return from last year is Sterling K. Brown looking for his sixth and final nomination for This is Us. Brown won the award in 2017 and seems likely to get one final nomination. But there are plenty of 2020 nominees returning to the fold including that year's winner, Jeremy Strong for Succession. He is definitely one of the frontrunners along with his co-star, Brian Cox. There will also likely be a spot for Jason Bateman for the final season of Ozark. Bateman won for Directing on the show but hasn't won for acting. He has been nominated for every season of the show though. There will definitely be some sentimental love for Bob Odenkirk of Better Call Saul. After a serious heart attack on set last fall, Odenkirk seems set on getting a fifth nomination for the series. Brown's This is Us co-star Milo Ventimiglia was last nominated in 2019 and his part has gotten smaller over the years. It seems more likely that he could have gotten in Supporting, I have a hard time believing he'll be able to break back into Lead. Another co-star, Justin Hartley, has never been nominated and as deserving as he is, I don't think he'll get into a category with likely only six nominees. That's partly because there are a couple really strong potential first time nominees in Lee Jung-jae for Squid Game and Adam Scott for Severance. Both their chances seem likely to be tied to how much love their respective shows end up getting on nomination day though Jung-jae seems to be a near lock and Scott seems to be more of a chance if Severance comes up big. Many expect this to be the year that Yellowstone finally gets into the Emmy conversation and if that happens, you can't dismiss Kevin Costner's chances. Some momentum seems to be building for Winning Time and John C. Reilly as the show gained strength over its run but I still think he's on the outside looking in right now. Gary Oldman has been an awards darling for a long time and could sneak in for Slow Horses but it would be a surprise nomination. Could Michael C. Hall be a surprise for Dexter: New Blood? He was a five-time nominee for the original run of Dexter. Then there's the longshots: Lee Min-Ho for Pachinko, Tom Hiddleston for Loki and Jonathan Bailey for Bridgerton (his now departed co-star Rege-Jean Page was a nominee in this category last year).
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Jeremy Strong - Succession
2. Brian Cox - Succession
3. Bob Odenkirk - Better Call Saul
4. Sterling K. Brown - This is Us
5. Lee Jung-jae - Squid Game
6. Jason Bateman - Ozark
7. Adam Scott - Severance
8. Kevin Costner - Yellowstone
There's a very obvious frontrunner in this category but after that, it feels wide open. The frontrunner is Michael Keaton for Dopesick. He did well through the winter awards, including winning the SAG and he is a beloved Hollywood actor. He remains the one to beat. After that, the rest of the nominees could go a lot of different ways. Andrew Garfield is a recent Oscar nominee and has an acclaimed turn in Under the Banner of Heaven but it doesn't feel like a lot of people are watching that. Oscar Isaac is a contender for two different roles in this category: on HBO's quiet Scenes from a Marriage and Disney+'s extravagant Moon Knight. He seems more likely to get in for Marriage. Colin Firth has been getting lots of acclaim for The Staircase but it is a recent entry like Heaven and it remains to be seen if it will have been widely seen enough by the time nomination voting happens. A Very English Scandal was well-liked by Emmy voters in 2019 and its sequel, A Very British Scandal, could get a nomination for Paul Bettany. There's a wealth of big names who are sort of the second tier and could easily get in, especially with name recognition. That includes Jared Leto for WeCrashed, Samuel L. Jackson for The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey and Tom Hiddleston for The Essex Serpent. Sebastian Stan won some praise for his performance as Tommy Lee but I still have a hard time seeing Emmy voters going for that show. If Station Eleven overperforms then Himesh Patel could certainly snag a nomination. And because this category also still includes TV movies, Ben Foster is a very real threat for his performance in The Survivor. Longshots, but not impossibilities, could include Will Ferrell or Paul Rudd for The Shrink Next Door, William Jackson Harper for Love Life and Clive Owen for Impeachment: American Crime Story. I have a really hard time seeing the latter two with a chance though.
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Michael Keaton - Dopesick
2. Oscar Isaac - Scenes From a Marriage
3. Colin Firth - The Staircase
4. Andrew Garfield - Under the Banner of Heaven
5. Ben Foster - The Survivor
6. Himesh Patel - Station Eleven
7. Samuel L. Jackson - The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey
8. Paul Bettany - A Very British Scandal
Tomorrow: A One Season Wonder look at 1995's The Office!
Next Tuesday: An Emmy Preview of the Series Races!
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