As I continue my Emmys Preview on Tuesdays, I will be taking a look at the Lead Actress categories today!
Another comedy category, another tough fight. This one is interesting because there's likely to only be six nominees that I could see shaking out a lot of different ways. In fact, I only see one person as a slam dunk for a nomination and that is last year's winner, Jean Smart for Hacks. She has continued to win awards through the winter season and the just released second season of Hacks has good reviews as well so she's the one to beat. There's another former winner in the mix too with Rachel Brosnahan returning to contention. She seems unlikely to win as momentum on Maisel seems to be on the downward trajectory. I don't think a nomination is a guarantee for her or any of the rest on this list but I still think it's likely for Brosnahan. Kaley Cuoco was the frontrunner last year until Smart's late season entry and while buzz seems to be down on The Flight Attendant overall, Cuoco has continued to be praised. And there's also Tracee Ellis Ross for the final season of Black-ish. She has been nominated for five of the past six seasons so you can't count her out even though many seem to think she might get squeezed out. Another final season performer is Issa Rae for Insecure. I don't feel like there's a ton of heat behind her but she might still be able to get in. Then there's Natasha Lyonne, returning for Russian Doll after being nominated for the first season back in 2019. The second season of Doll sort of came and went though and in a tough category, I think Lyonne is a longshot. Ditto for Pamela Adlon, who hasn't been nominated since 2018 for Better Things despite being eligible since then. She could get a farewell nomination but I doubt it. I don't think anyone really thinks Lily Tomlin or Jane Fonda will get in for the final season of Grace and Frankie, but they are also both former nominees. There will probably only be six nominees and I've already named more than six actresses but there's a couple strong potential first time nominees who could crash the party. Leading that list is Quinta Brunson for Abbott Elementary after her show has been somewhat of a breakout and she's also the creator. Sarah Lancashire has won some praise for Julia and could sneak in but I'd feel better about her chances in a less competitive category. Only Murders in the Building seems likely to get some Emmy love but it's a tough road for Selena Gomez compared to her male co-stars. And Elle Fanning had a lot of heat for The Great at one point but she couldn't sneak in last time she was eligible in 2020 and the buzz seems to be fading a bit for her. Some longer, but not impossible, shots are Sandra Oh for The Chair, Rose Byrne for Physical and Sarah Jessica Parker for a role in And Just Like That that got her two Emmys back in the day for Sex and the City. Aidy Bryant was a huge surprise in this category last year for Shrill and while she is no longer eligible, perhaps there's someone I haven't even mentioned here who will sneak in?
PREDICTED NOMINEES
These are listed in order of likelihood to get nominated, not necessarily to win. I'm listing eight for each category even though several categories may end up with less than eight.
1. Jean Smart - Hacks
2. Kaley Cuoco - The Flight Attendant
3. Rachel Brosnahan - The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
4. Quinta Brunson - Abbott Elementary
5. Tracee Ellis Ross - Black-ish
6. Issa Rae - Insecure
7. Sarah Lancashire - Julia
8. Selena Gomez - Only Murders in the Building
None of last year's nominees are eligible this year as the shows represented have either ended or did not put out a new season in the eligibility window. So we are left to look further back for possible returning nominees as five of the six 2020 nominees are now eligible again. Leading that group is 2020 winner Zendaya for Euphoria. The young actress was a surprise winner and her profile both with the show and in general has only risen since then so she looks to be the current favorite. Her competition in 2020 could be formidable competition again this year. That includes Jennifer Aniston for The Morning Show. That series didn't get great reviews for its second season but Aniston and her performance are still well-liked. Sandra Oh and 2019 winner Jodie Comer have both been frequently nominated for Killing Eve but it remains to be seen if the divisive final season hurts them. Laura Linney had a powerhouse final season of Ozark and seems very likely to get back in again and she may even have a chance at winning. Speaking of powerhouse final seasons, Mandy Moore has been nominated just once in this category for This is Us (in 2019) but she has been an acclaimed run during the swan song for This is Us and NBC will be pushing hard for her. That's it for the potential returning nominees and it really could be those six as the nominees. But if new ones get in, there's plenty to consider. If Severance has a big nominations day as many expect, Britt Lower is certainly a likely candidate. The most likely party crasher though is Melanie Lynskey for Yellowjackets. The only thing that gives me pause is the Showtime of it all but Lynskey has already been a player at the winter awards so I think she's on the radar for Emmy voters. Carrie Coon could not get in for The Leftovers so I have a hard time believing she'll get in for The Gilded Age while Christine Baranski cannot get in for The Good Fight despite being nominated multiple times for the same character on The Good Wife. Kelly Reilly made the decision to move from Supporting to Lead for Yellowstone just recently and I think her chances were better when she was in Supporting but Yellowstone is another one of those shows that could break through and get a bunch of nominations like Severance or Yellowjackets. There's some co-stars who could be considered dark horses. Reese Witherspoon didn't get nominated alongside Aniston for The Morning Show in 2020 so I have a hard time believing it will happen this time. There's also Lynskey's co-stars on Yellowjackets: Juliette Lewis and Tawny Cypress. Neither one seems that likely but you never know if Yellowjackets breaks big.
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Zendaya - Euphoria
2. Laura Linney - Ozark
3. Jennifer Aniston - The Morning Show
4. Melanie Lynskey - Yellowjackets
5. Mandy Moore - This is Us
6. Britt Lower - Severance
7. Jodie Comer - Killing Eve
8. Sandra Oh - Killing Eve
This category feels wide open compared to Supporting Actress because none of the White Lotus ladies are in the category, they are all supporting. There's also no Lead Actress in another major contender, Dopesick. So what are we left with? The first mention should probably be Margaret Qualley, who won raves for her performance in Maid. It's hard to tell how well Maid will do but Qualley seems to be the best bet from the show. Another very likely nominee is Amanda Seyfried for The Dropout. Of all the "true crime" shows that have come out in recent months, her performance seems to be the one that has had the most buzz. I certainly like her chances more than Julia Garner and Anna Chlumsky for Inventing Anna, Anne Hathaway for WeCrashed and Ellen Fanning for The Girl From Plainville even though I would rule out any of those four actresses I just mentioned. The First Lady is an interesting case. Viola Davis and Gillian Anderson are both recent Emmy winners (for How to Get Away with Murder and The Crown respectively). But their performance and the show have been mostly panned and the most praise has gone to Michelle Pfeiffer as Betty Ford. Will voters namecheck the big Emmy names, go with the most deserving (and a big name too) or ignore the series completely? After his Oscar win, Jessica Chastain seems to be a more likely nominee for Scenes from a Marriage even though that show came and went back in the fall. Lily James seems to be gaining some steam for Pam & Tommy but I'm not convinced Emmy voters will give that show the time of day. Claire Foy is another Emmy darling and she could get in for A Very British Scandal but that show seems to be pretty buzz-less. Then there's the interesting case of Julia Roberts. She's on a show (Gaslit) that seems to little watched on a network (Starz) that has always had troubles with Emmys. And yet Roberts is getting a great amount of acclaim for her role so she could sneak in. The other darkhorses are Mackenzie Davis for Station Eleven, Sarah Paulson for her divisive performance in Impeachment: American Crime Story and Renee Zellweger for The Thing About Pam (the latter is unlikely with it being a broadcast series but Zellweger has been campaigning hard).
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Margaret Qualley - Maid
2. Amanda Seyfried - The Dropout
3. Jessica Chastain - Scenes from a Marriage
4. Michelle Pfeiffer - The First Lady
5. Julia Roberts - Gaslit
6. Viola Davis - The First Lady
7. Claire Foy - A Very British Scandal
8. Lily James - Pam and Tommy
Tomorrow: A One Season Wonder look at Extreme!
Next Tuesday: An Emmy Preview of the Lead Actor Races!
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