As I continue my Emmys Preview on Tuesdays, I will be taking a look at the Lead Actor categories today!
This is a category where it feels like there are co-frontrunners as the 2021 winner - Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso) faces off against the 2018 & 2019 winner - Bill Hader (Barry), who is eligible for the first time since his 2019 win. Both will obviously get nominated. As far as the win goes, I would currently lean a little bit towards Hader with his show being more recent and Barry's third season being a little more acclaimed than Ted Lasso's second season. Beyond those two frontrunners, there are lots of others vying for a nomination. Anthony Anderson has been nominated seven times for Black-ish so it seems likely he'll get one final nomination for the farewell season. The chances seem a little more murky for the rest of the potential returning nominees. Larry David has been nominated six times for Curb Your Enthusiasm but the most recent season sort of came and went without much attention. Donald Glover has taken a backseat in terms of a leading role on the current season of Atlanta but he's still well-liked by the Academy. Don Cheadle has snuck in a couple times but Black Monday is now cancelled. Same goes for Kenan Thompson of Kenan. Among potential first time nominees, there seem to be two slam dunk nominees from the same show: Steve Martin and Martin Short for Only Murders in the Building. I think both will make it in but if only one does, my money is on Steve. Nicholas Hoult has earned a ton of praise for The Great and could get in for the second season. William Zabka and Ralph Macchio were predicted by some to get in last year for Cobra Kai and it didn't happen so this year seems less likely with more competition. Considering we're likely to get six nominees at most, the rest of the names are pretty far longshots. That includes Jake Johnson for Minx, John Cena for Peacemaker (which I have a really hard time seeing actually happen) and Rhys Darby for Our Flag Means Death.
PREDICTED NOMINEES
These are listed in order of likelihood to get nominated, not necessarily to win. I'm listing eight for each category even though several categories may end up with less than eight.
1. Bill Hader - Barry
2. Jason Sudeikis - Ted Lasso
3. Steve Martin - Only Murders in the Building
4. Martin Short - Only Murders in the Building
5. Anthony Anderson - Black-ish
6. Nicholas Hoult - The Great
7. Donald Glover - Atlanta
8. Larry David - Curb Your Enthusiasm