Sunday, September 15, 2019

FALL PREVIEW 2019: The Sophomore Class

The 2019-20 is just over a week away. All week I will have night-by-night previews but first, as I do every year, here's a look at the sophomore class. Before getting to this year's sophomores, here is the history of the sophomores since my blog started in 2010:

2010-11
43 new shows, 11 returned for Season 2 (25.6%)
4 still on the air and entering Season 10: Blue Bloods, Hawaii Five-0, The Voice, Bob's Burgers

2011-12
53 new shows, 21 returned for Season 2 (39.6%)
1 still on the air and entering Season 8: Last Man Standing (not entering Season 9 due to one year off between its ABC and FOX run)

2012-13
38 new shows, 12 returned for Season 2 (31.6%)
2 still on the air and entering Season 8: Chicago Fire, Arrow

2013-14
48 new shows, 15 returned for Season 2 (31.3%)
8 still on the air and entering Season 7: The Blacklist, Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D., Chicago PD, Mom, The Goldbergs, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, Masterchef Junior, The 100

2014-15
45 new shows, 19 returned for Season 2 (42.2%)
7 still on the air and entering Season 6: Empire, How to Get Away with Murder, NCIS: New Orleans, Madam Secretary, Black-ish, Fresh Off the Boat, The Flash

2015-16
48 new shows, 19 returned for Season 2 (39.6%)
5 still on the air and entering Season 5: Chicago Med, Blindspot, Superstore, DC's Legends of Tomorrow, Supergirl (plus Lucifer on Netflix)

2016-17
51 new shows, 21 returned for Season 2 (41.2%)
7 still on the air and entering Season 4: This is Us, American Housewife, The Good Place, Bull, MacGyver, Riverdale, Man with a Plan

2017-18
44 new shows, 22 returned for Season 2 (50%)
13 still on the air and entering Season 3: Young Sheldon, The Good Doctor, 9-1-1, Will & Grace, Black Lightning, SEAL Team, S.W.A.T., Station 19, The Resident, Dynasty, American Idol, Ellen's Game of Games, Good Girls (plus A.P. Bio on NBC Universal Streaming Service, The Orville on Hulu, and still TBD is Big Brother: Celebrity Edition)

2018-19
41 new shows, 18 returned for Season 2 (46.3%)
And here they are!

THE MASKED SINGER (FOX) - The biggest new hit of last season was a show that seemed quite likely to be an epic bomb. But instead, the bizarre The Masked Singer became a sensation and captured a buzz for a reality show not seen since the beginnings of The Voice. It was obvious that FOX would go all in on this show for this season. They decided to not hold it for winter, but to air two editions - one in the fall and one in the spring. The spring edition will premiere after the Super Bowl but the fall edition will get a sneak peek after football tonight. FOX is betting big on this show with its two editions, but it doesn't seem like a show that's going to have a long life so they might as well get the most out of it while they can.

THE CONNERS (ABC) - Perhaps the most anticipated show out of sheer curiosity last year was The Conners. It was a show that was hurried together after the Roseanne revival flamed out following its title star's firing. With the rest of the veteran cast from Roseanne in tact, it felt more like a returning show than a new one. It did pretty decently in the ratings and its value was more apparent given how the Tuesday lineup completely collapsed once its season ended. It'll have a longer season this year and I would expect some declines, but still expect it to be ABC's top show on Tuesday.

THE NEIGHBORHOOD (CBS) - Probably the biggest surprise in a positive manner (aside from The Masked Singer) was the success of The Neighborhood on CBS. Two new sitcoms leading off CBS's Monday night lineup seemed like a very bad idea. But The Neighborhood, with a strong veteran cast and tons of football promotion, surprised with a solid debut and then it held up pretty well throughout the entire season. People seemed to like this show and it appealed well to the broad CBS audience. I wouldn't expect a major drop off for Season 2.

MAGNUM P.I. (CBS) - On the flip side, the biggest disappointment for CBS also came on Mondays. Magnum P.I. was heavily promoted and a known property. But it disappointed from the start and skewed ancient. It got the post-Championship Game slot and that didn't translate to anything. This year, it gets a timeslot downgrade to Fridays. While it may be a downgrade strictly speaking, it might be a better situation for Magnum as it will be nestled between two Friday stalwarts that skew old but have a strong total viewer count: Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods. It if doesn't mesh with them, I think it'll be two and done.

FBI (CBS) - CBS got in the Dick Wolf game last year with FBI and, in true Dick Wolf fashion, it already has a spinoff ordered. FBI: Most Wanted is slated to premiere at midseason but the original will retain its Tuesday night slot. It was a strong total viewer performer airing after NCIS, but it didn't really break through. The best comparison might be Chicago Fire, which wasn't a huge hit in season one and had a seemingly premature spinoff, but developed into a strong performer. I wonder where the spinoff will go, but I think a third season of the mothership seems extremely likely.

A MILLION LITTLE THINGS (ABC) - ABC tried to get in the This is Us game with their weepy melodrama A Million Little Things. Things did not go well at first when it aired on Wednesdays at 10pm. Although timeslots don't matter as much as they used to, this show clearly got a bump when it moved to Thursdays at 9pm after Grey's Anatomy and it went from a borderline cancellation to a slam-dunk renewal. It will return to the Thursday night slot and should continue to be a decent performer especially as far as ABC dramas are concerned.

GOD FRIENDED ME (CBS) - Another sentimental drama, God Friended Me had an up and down year for CBS. It was a strong performer when it aired on late NFL Sundays and then even showed a little life without the NFL in January. But then it had a lot of trouble as the season went on (and after its early renewal) and was having a rough go of it for its last several episodes. A timeslot downgrade seemed quite likely, but it will keep its Sunday 8pm slot and should at least have decent ratings on NFL days again.

NEW AMSTERDAM (NBC) - Another show with an up and down season. New Amsterdam had a really strong start to the season, airing after This is Us. It enjoyed a strong fall and did decently through the winter. Then spring arrived and This is Us ended its season. It then had to follow flop The Village and things got downright ugly for New Amsterdam. It rallied a little bit when NBC swapped The Village with The Voice, but it never really recovered. It will be interesting to see if it can this fall when it gets to go back to following This is Us.

THE ROOKIE (ABC) - ABC got back in the Nathan Fillion business with The Rookie, but it had a tough go of it on Tuesday nights though it really could have been worse considering how Tuesday nights at 10pm have gone for ABC. Despite being a steady performer on the night, it is going to have a much tougher go of it this season airing on Sunday nights at 10pm, a slot that has been lethal to Ten Days in the Valley and The Alec Baldwin Show in recent seasons. Add in a public departure of a supporting cast member due to accusations against a crew member and the show's handling of it and this show seems like it has a dark cloud hanging over it coming into season two.

SCHOOLED (ABC) - ABC aired The Goldbergs spinoff Schooled starting at midseason. It had a decent spring with a couple real strong nights and a couple dud nights. Overall it seemed deserving of getting a second season airing behind the mothership. With so many ABC sitcoms getting up there in age including The Goldbergs, ABC needs to have some of its younger shows show some life. Right now, Schooled seems like one of its best bets and ABC needs to know if it can be an 8pm anchor down the road. This season will tell us if it can or can't.

SINGLE PARENTS (ABC) - All season long, ABC tried to make Single Parents work. It came in with the best reviews of any new sitcom and had a decent timeslot with a seemingly compatible lead-in (Modern Family). But, it continued to be an underperformer all year. Despite that performance, a renewal wasn't surprising. What was surprising was that its retaining its Wednesday at 9:30pm slot and will get to follow Modern Family's final season. It seems like ABC would have been better off trying one more new show after their tentpole show. But instead, Single Parents will have another try and I don't see it going much better.

BLESS THIS MESS (ABC) - While ABC tried to make Single Parents work all season, there was much less care given to Bless This Mess. It premiered in mid-April, never a good sign for a new show's survival chances. But it didn't completely bottom out on a night where everything was struggling. As a result of not being abysmally bad, it actually ended up getting a timeslot upgrade as it will air after The Conners in a better 8:30pm slot. I'm not sure it's deserving of that slot but it's basically like trying a new show there so if they liked this better than their comedy pilots, I guess I can live with the decision.

CHARMED (CW) - The CW premiered three new shows last fall and all three are returning but none of them are exactly lighting the world on fire. The one that premiered to the most hype was the Charmed reboot, which was part of the CW's return to Sunday programming. Things started decently for the reboot as it was outperforming its lead-in, Supergirl, for a couple weeks. But it fell off the rails and became one of the CW's lower rated shows by the end of the season. It gets to go off into 0.1 land as it heads to Fridays this fall where its ratings are sure to go even lower.

ALL-AMERICAN (CW) - While Charmed was the most hyped new show on the CW, All American had the best reviews going in. It seemed like it had a chance to break through and also a chance to flop in an epic fashion. Neither of those things happened as it muddled along with mostly 0.2 demos. Occasionally it would go up to a 0.3 or have a high 0.2 and other times it would have a low 0.2, but it never really wavered that much. It will head to Mondays this season and is oddly paired with Black Lightning. The CW claims it does well on streaming and they're not really about their linear lineup so it may not matter much where its placed.

LEGACIES (CW) - The third fall newbie on the CW was Legacies, which seemed like it belonged on the air back in 2010. In some ways, it was the most impressive of the three new ones. It never reached the highs of Charmed's early episodes or the lows of the end of Charmed and some All American episodes, it just held kind of in the middle all season. It seemed to be a good pair with Supernatural and will get to follow the veteran drama's final season this year. Just like Charmed and All American, CW claims it does well on DVR but aside from the Riverdale bump in Fall 2017, that doesn't usually translate to stronger linear ratings.

AMERICA'S GOT TALENT: THE CHAMPIONS (NBC)
MANIFEST (NBC)
IN THE DARK (CW)
ROSWELL, NEW MEXICO (CW)

These four shows will return at midseason (or later). Still TBD is NBC's The Titan Games.

Check back tomorrow for my Monday preview!

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