FALL PREVIEW 2018: Tuesday

Here is my Fall Preview for Tuesday: a night with the most new shows of any night. ABC has some big changes while CBS and NBC are attempting to bolster their nights with new dramas.

ABC
8:00 THE CONNERS
8:30 THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT
9:00 Black-ish (5th season)
9:30 Splitting Up Together (2nd season)
10:00 THE ROOKIE

ABC's Tuesday nights were supposed to start with Roseanne. After its smash hit ratings in its return last season, things looked great for ABC Tuesday nights. Then just a week later, Roseanne was abruptly cancelled following star Roseanne Barr's bizarre and racist tweet. So now it is a much bigger question mark on Tuesday night. ABC is trying to move forward with the rest of the cast in spinoff The Conners. I'm sure the premiere will get a lot of curiosity tuning in, but it will be interesting to see where it settles, probably not where Roseanne would have. At 8:30pm is 70s-set family comedy The Kids are Alright. Its fate seems pretty tied to how The Conners performs. The 9pm hour remains the same. Black-ish was looking pretty weak until it got the Roseanne halo late in the season. Splitting Up Together started strong but was showing a lot of weakness towards the end. It leads into the new drama The Rookie, which brings Nathan Fillion back to ABC. Tuesdays at 10pm have been disastrous to ABC for a long time, but I do think this is one of their better options in recent years. It's worth noting this lineup does not premiere until October 16.

CBS
8:00 NCIS (16th season)
9:00 F.B.I.
10:00 NCIS: New Orleans (5th season)

In what seems like a match made in heaven, CBS is getting into the Dick Wolf game after his many years at NBC. While he is still running many shows for the peacock, he is coming over to CBS with F.B.I., which takes over the 9pm slot. This seems like a perfect show for CBS audiences albeit slightly darker than its NCIS lead-in and lead-out. However, it also has to face This is Us and that was tough for Bull in the demo. Season 16 of NCIS (without co-star Pauley Perrette anymore) and Season 5 of NCIS: New Orleans bookend the night. NCIS can't have too many years left but is still one of TV's top draws in total viewers. NCIS: New Orleans holds its own at 10pm and is competing with two newbies on ABC and NBC.

NBC
8:00 The Voice (15th edition)
9:00 This is Us (3rd season)
10:00 NEW AMSTERDAM

NBC is keeping the status quo from 8-10pm with The Voice and This is Us. There was no talk about moving This is Us to another night this time around and it returns as the anchor of the night. I do think it will take a small step back this year, but will still be one of TV's top shows. NBC made a bonehead decision to have This is Us lead into Law & Order: True Crime last season and it was not very compatible. Medical drama New Amsterdam might be a better option because Chicago Med was a decent performer here once True Crime ended. But does NBC (and TV in general?) need another medical show?

FOX
8:00 The Gifted (2nd season)
9:00 Lethal Weapon (3rd season)

FOX Tuesdays are going to be a mess. At 8pm is The Gifted, which hasn't been seen since last winter and is now tasked with leading off the night. This show started well but faded badly towards the end of its first season and I think it will struggle to top The Flash, much less the big three networks. At 9pm is Lethal Weapon, which very publicly replaced co-star Clayne Crawford with Seann William Scott. I understand why FOX wanted to keep this show going even with the dysfunction, but why not just leave it at 8pm? I think it stands less of a chance at 9pm with what will certainly be a terrible lead-in.

CW
8:00 The Flash (5th season)
9:00 Black Lightning (2nd season)

The CW is the most stable network of the evening with the same lineup it had last year starting at midseason. The Flash has come down quite a bit, but it's still the CW's top show entering season five. Black Lightning was a solid midseason entry and proved to be pretty compatible with The Flash. I think the CW was wise to consolidate its superhero shows mostly to Monday and Tuesday (with Supergirl on Sundays). They can't rely on the DC shows as much as they have with those shows fading.

New Tuesday Show Survival Chances
The Conners (ABC) - Good. This is a huge gamble in so many ways, but I think it's going to have enough of a big start and a short enough season to convince ABC to ask for more. I think it will settle far below where it premieres though.

The Kids are Alright (ABC) - Good. If Roseanne could halo all the way to 9:30pm, I think this show should be able to benefit from airing right after The Conners and what will certainly be a big audience early on.

The Rookie (ABC) - Fair. I like this option at 10pm but I'm so skeptical of ABC and new shows in this time period that I just can't give it anything above a "Fair" prediction.

F.B.I. (CBS) - Good. Even with the This is Us competition, this has a good slot on CBS and is right in their wheelhouse. I think it will definitely do enough to continue.

New Amsterdam (NBC) - Fair. I'm kind of down on this show because it seems like a weaker version of some other medical shows on TV and we already have decent to good performers in The Resident, Chicago Med, and The Good Doctor. But it does have the This is Us lead-in so we'll see.