Sunday, September 16, 2018

FALL PREVIEW 2018: The Sophomore Class

The 2018-19 season is almost here! All this week will be a night by night preview of the new season but before that, here is a look at the sophomore shows that made it to season two. First, a little history since the start of my blog:

2010-11
43 new shows, 11 returned for Season 2 (25.6%)
4 still on the air and entering Season 9: Blue Bloods, Hawaii Five-0, The Voice, Bob's Burgers

2011-12
53 new shows, 21 returned for Season 2 (39.6%)
0 still on the air (Last Man Standing is returning now on FOX, but after being cancelled and off the air for a year)

2012-13
38 new shows, 12 returned for Season 2 (31.6%)
3 still on the air and entering Season 7: Chicago Fire, Elementary, Arrow

2013-14
48 new shows, 15 returned for Season 2 (31.3%)
8 still on the air and entering Season 6: The Blacklist, Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D., Chicago PD, Mom, The Goldbergs, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, Masterchef Junior, The 100

2014-15
45 new shows, 19 returned for Season 2 (42.2%)
10 still on the air and entering Season 5: Empire, Gotham, How to Get Away with Murder, NCIS: New Orleans, Madam Secretary, Black-ish, Fresh Off the Boat, Jane the Virgin, The Flash, iZombie

2015-16
48 new shows, 19 returned for Season 2 (39.6%)
7 still on the air and entering Season 4: Chicago Med, Blindspot, Superstore, Life in Pieces, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, DC's Legends of Tomorrow, Supergirl
(plus Lucifer on Netflix and Little Big Shots TBD on NBC)

2016-17
51 new shows, 21 returned for Season 2 (41.2%)
11 still on the air and entering Season 3: This is Us, American Housewife, The Good Place, Speechless, Star, Bull, MacGyver, Lethal Weapon, Riverdale, Man with a Plan, The Wall
(plus Designated Survivor on Netflix)

2017-18
44 new shows, 22 returning for Season 2 (50%)
And here they are!

YOUNG SHELDON (CBS) - The biggest new hit of the 2017-18 season was the spinoff of The Big Bang Theory, Young Sheldon. It will get one more year airing behind the mothership before Big Bang ends its 12 year run at the end of the season. Then it will likely be tasked with leading off a night so a strong second season would make CBS feel better about life after Big Bang. It seems like it should be fine since Big Bang seems likely to have a strong final season in the ratings.

THE GOOD DOCTOR (ABC) - While Young Sheldon did the best in the ratings, the new show that got the most buzz last season was The Good Doctor. It premiered to surprisingly big numbers and held up pretty well throughout the season. I think the early episodes may make it look like a sophomore slump is going to happen because it won't be anywhere near its Fall 2017 numbers but if it can avoid negative buzz for that, I think it will hold up pretty well.

9-1-1 (FOX) - A surprising winter hit, Ryan Murphy's 9-1-1 surpassed expectations and is one of the cornerstones of the transitioning new FOX's fall schedule. It will get a two night premiere with the first hour coming after football the night before the season officially starts. Jennifer Love Hewitt joins the cast, replacing the departed Connie Britton. While every show on FOX is a little bit of a guessing game, this was the most successful of its four freshman dramas coming back so it probably has the longest leash.

WILL & GRACE (NBC) - At this time last year, the biggest story on TV was the revival of Will & Grace. It started strong for NBC, but faded quite a bit as the season went on. Despite that, it has already been renewed for next season. That seems a little bit shortsighted considering the trajectory the show took over the course of last season, but maybe that was how they locked in everyone for this season. Either way, it's not really the tentpole NBC was probably hoping for.

BLACK LIGHTNING (CW) - The CW had a rocky season last season but they did add a successful member to their DC superhero family. Black Lightning was a very consistent performer behind The Flash on Tuesday nights and will return to that same slot this fall. It didn't seem to have as much buzz as a show like The Flash or Arrow did at the beginning, but it managed to stay remarkably steady. I think the DC empire is on its way down, but this won't be the first to go.

SEAL TEAM (CBS) - The good news is SEAL Team is the only military drama from last year's trend that made it to a second season. The bad news is it didn't exactly light the night on fire and I don't think it was a great move by CBS to bring it back to the same timeslot. I think they either needed to give it an upgrade (maybe after football on Sundays?) or realize it's a bust and put it in a low pressure slot. Returning to the prime Weds 9pm slot just seems to be asking for trouble.

S.W.A.T. (CBS) - S.W.A.T. didn't do as well as SEAL Team in the ratings but relative to expectations and the timeslot, it was more of a success. I wouldn't say it solved the Thursday 10pm slot for CBS, but it definitely stabilized it and CBS responded by giving it another season there. This year, it will follow the Murphy Brown revival at least to start the year. If that can get some early eyeballs, it could help season two of S.W.A.T. get off to a solid start.

SPLITTING UP TOGETHER (ABC) - Splitting Up Together had the benefit of premiering the same night as the mega return of Roseanne. Despite airing at 9:30pm, it benefited from the halo of the 8pm behemoth for several weeks but wasn't looking nearly as strong by the end. It returns to the same slot but the night looks very different. Roseanne is gone of course, replaced by The Conners, which is a wild card while newbie The Kids are Alright replaces the reliable The Middle. Depending on how the new comedies do for ABC, this could be done at midseason, especially if they think it's hurting The Rookie.

STATION 19 (ABC) - The spinoff of Grey's Anatomy lost to Chicago Fire on its premiere night and it seemed to have a hard time being the second fire show on Thursday nights. Now Chicago has moved to Wednesday and ABC is giving it a new chance to grow. Best case scenario is it pulls a Scandal and follows up a ho-hum freshman season with a blazing sophomore run. But I think it's destined to be a pretty mild show. In its timeslot, it might be enough to last for awhile though. They should do Grey's crossovers sooner rather than later.

THE RESIDENT (FOX) - The FOX medical drama was pretty steady on Monday nights this past fall and now will be tasked with leading off the night and leading into 9-1-1. While it seemed more natural for FOX to put the lineup the other way around, this certainly had its own audience leading out of a declining Lucifer. I think it has a decent chance because I think Monday nights in general will be solid for FOX (comparatively speaking, of course).

THE GIFTED (FOX) - The third of four sophomore FOX dramas, this one hasn't aired since halfway through last season. Last we saw it, it was looking pretty weak and now it's tasked with leading off Tuesday nights. I know it has the Marvel name attached but this show even getting renewed was a bit of a stretch. I can't imagine it's going to have a successful season.

DYNASTY (CW) - Speaking of renewals being stretches, Dynasty has the distinction of being a show that got a 0.1 demo many times and yet still got renewed. That's the CW for you. It is airing on Friday nights in a low priority slot and maybe it got enough interest on Netflix this summer to make it workable. We all know Netflix claims to not put a lot of stock into linear viewing, but this should be an exception. Will it get a 0.0 demo this year?

CHILD SUPPORT (ABC) - A quiet winter entry on ABC, it's surprisingly getting a shot on the fall schedule albeit in the low pressure Friday 9pm slot. The game show is a low risk/low reward for ABC as they are focusing on trying to reboot TGIF with sitcoms in the 8pm hour. If the sitcoms succeed (which is a big if), Child Support is not a bad lead-out from sitcoms.

AMERICAN IDOL (ABC)
FOR THE PEOPLE (ABC)
BIG BROTHER: CELEBRITY EDITION (CBS)
INSTINCT (CBS)
A.P. BIO (NBC)
ELLEN'S GAME OF GAMES (NBC)

GOOD GIRLS (NBC)
THE ORVILLE (FOX)
SHOWTIME AT THE APOLLO (FOX)
These will all air at some point this season. The Four on FOX has yet to have its fate determined after its second edition in one season aired this summer.

Tomorrow: check back for my Monday preview!!

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