Welcome to my Monday newsletter! This week is a little bit different as I am wrapping up my Emmys Preview with a look at the Big Three races: Comedy Series, Drama Series and Limited Series. I am also continuing my Top 25 Shows Since 2000 with #14.
This will be my last weekly newsletter until September but the blog will not be dormant all summer. I will be doing my 5th Annual Benjamonster Awards (my version of the Emmys) with a post every day from June 30-July 31 so check back then!
AWARDS CORNER
THE EMMY RACES for COMEDY, DRAMA & LIMITED SERIES
There are eight slots for Comedy Series and it feels like six slots are pretty close to locked. That includes last year's surprise winner Hacks and the series it upset, The Bear. While it does feel like voters are souring a bit on The Bear, I can't imagine it will fall out of the nominations list. It will have to have a really strong rally though to get back in the winners conversation. Perennial nominees Only Murders in the Building and Abbott Elementary are likely to get back in as well though they may never win at this point. Many think the biggest threat to Hacks is The Studio. I'm not convinced it is THAT strong. But I think it's definitely going to get nominated. And then there's a general consensus that the very well received second season of Shrinking is going to get in. So that leaves two spots for several contenders. Leading that pack is Nobody Wants This, which was widely seen that fall but sort of underperformed at the winter awards. What We Do in the Shadows has gotten in to this category twice and missed three times so who knows what will happen for its final season. A couple Netflix titles are the next ones knocking at the door: A Man on the Inside and The Four Seasons. Man seems more likely to get Ted Danson in than the series getting in but The Four Seasons could be a spoiler. It doesn't seem to have as much momentum as it did when it premiered though. I also wouldn't totally count out Agatha All Along after WandaVision did very well a few years ago. But it seems a little too crowded to get in. The next batch are dark horses including the final season of Somebody Somewhere, the buzzy The Rehearsal (could it see a Jury Duty type surprise?), the very recent Overcompensating, the second season of Poker Face and Netflix's The Residence. I'm not predicting any of them but I wouldn't rule any out.
Projected Nominees (ranked by likelihood of a nomination):
1. Hacks
2. Only Murders in the Building
3. The Bear
4. The Studio
5. Abbott Elementary
6. Shrinking
7. Nobody Wants This
8. What We Do in the Shadows
Just Missing:
9. The Four Seasons
10. The Rehearsal
11. A Man on the Inside
As with Comedy, there are eight slots for Drama Series. I see four locks that are very tightly battling it out for the win: the third season of The White Lotus, the second seasons of Severance and The Last of Us and the first season of The Pitt. The discussion about what show will win is very interesting as I could see it going in any direction. But this is a discussion about nominations and these four shows have a nomination locked up so it's not really worth talking about them much more at this point. After that, it gets a little dicier but I would bet on Slow Horses returning to the nominations field. The series finally broke in last year and seems likely to get in again now that it has broken through. Another likely returning nominee is Andor. The first season got in two years ago and the second season was very well received so I think it's a near-lock. The Diplomat did not make it in for the first season but it seems to working its way up the Emmy ladder so I think it wouldn't be surprising at all to see it get in for its second season. And then there's one spot left. It could be Squid Game, but the second season of that show sort of came and went. There's one former winner eligible and that's The Handmaid's Tale, which won way back in 2017 and was nominated for its first four seasons. It did not get a nomination for its fifth season so we'll see if it can get back in for a generally well-received sixth and final season. It can be hard for shows to get back in after they dropped out though. Another former nominee is House of the Dragon but I don't think anyone thinks it'll get in for an underwhelming second season. You can't totally rule it out though. I think the most likely contender for the last slot is Paradise, despite the mixed reception to the first season. It was a pretty buzzy show for a time and has the pedigree to get in. A few dark horses could include Bad Sisters, which has gotten in for its star Sharon Horgan but the series did not break into a weaker category for its first season. There's also Industry, which is loved by critics but has not gotten into the Emmy conversation yet. There's The Day of the Jackal, which made a little bit of noise at the winter awards but is on Peacock, which struggles to be a contender. I doubt broadcast gets any love but if it did, I would look to Matlock or High Potential.
Projected Nominees (ranked by likelihood of a nomination):
1. The Last of Us
2. Severance
3. The White Lotus
4. The Pitt
5. Andor
6. Slow Horses
7. The Diplomat
8. Paradise
Just Missing:
9. The Handmaid's Tale
10. Squid Game
11. House of the Dragon
We had a few years in the early 2020s where Limited Series was the place to be with way more great contenders than slots available. But in 2025, it's a very weak field. There will be five nominees and it seems hard to even fill the category beyond two obvious locks. The two locks are Adolescence and The Penguin. The Netflix sensation Adolescence was an organic hit that got everyone talking and it took over frontrunner status from HBO's The Penguin, which was generally well received but seen as a pretty weak leading contender. Both are sure to get in with Adolescence definitely having the upper hand. After that though, it's bleak. Next in line might be Dying For Sex. The series received very positive reviews but really seemed to struggle to be seen. While I think it will get in, it would not shock me if this is a show that all the pundits think will do well but ultimately underperforms quite a bit. Two mysteries to me are Disclaimer and Say Nothing. Both were kind of assumed to be contenders because of the weak fields but they really got no attention. Say Nothing was at least well-liked by critics. Disclaimer doesn't even have that. But in a weak field, both could get in. The question is whether these artsier choices will get in or if it will go to something more mainstream and well-seen like Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story or Sirens, both Netflix shows. Speaking of Netflix, Black Mirror seemed to have a little more attention for its seventh season than it has in awhile so I don't think we can rule it out but I'd still be surprised. Once upon a time it seemed like Presumed Innocent could be a player here but it got no love during the winter awards and I don't see it happening here. Good American Family was trashed by critics but did well with audiences so while it's a long-shot, it's not impossible. Other long-shots include Zero Day, Dope Thief and American Sports Story: Aaron Hernandez.
Projected Nominees (ranked by likelihood of a nomination):
1. Adolescence
2. The Penguin
3. Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
4. Dying For Sex
5. Disclaimer
Just Missing:
6. Black Mirror
7. Say Nothing
8. Presumed Innocent
#14 - SCHITT'S CREEK (CBC, 2015-2020)
I was a latecomer to Schitt's Creek. To be fair, very few watched it from the beginning but I wasn't an adopter when it came on Netflix. I didn't get into until the pandemic like so many other shows. Once I did though, I was completely hooked. The series started out incredibly satirical with the fantastic quartet of Eugene Levy, Catherine O'Hara, Dan Levy and Annie Murphy being pretty unlikable and self-centered characters. But an amazing thing happened over the course of the series. They all became characters we rooted for. Even watching it in fairly quick succession, it was amazing to see the show go from a dark comedy to a heartfelt one, while still being uproariously funny. I think it's about time for a re-watch!
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