Welcome to my Monday newsletter! This week, I am making some Tony Awards predictions plus looking at the finales of Hacks and The Handmaid's Tale, the Emmy race for Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series and continuing my Top 25 Shows Since 2000 with #17.
TONY AWARDS PREDICTIONS
I didn't watch anything new this week so I'm going to use this space to make Tony Awards predictions. The 78th Annual Tony Awards air this Sunday with the first awards on Paramount+ and then the main telecast, hosted by Cynthia Erivo, on CBS and Paramount+. I'm also a big Broadway fan in addition to TV but usually only see shows once a year when I go in the summer and see a whole slew of them. So I haven't seen this year's nominated productions (aside from Yellow Face on Great Performances) yet but I follow awards closely enough to make educated predictions. So here we go:
I will only be listing my winner predictions. For a list of nominees, click here.
Best Musical: Maybe Happy Ending
Best Play: Oh Mary!
Best Revival of a Musical: Sunset Blvd.
Best Revival of a Play: Yellow Face
Lead Actress in a Musical: Audra McDonald, Gypsy
Lead Actor in a Musical: Darren Criss, Maybe Happy Ending
Featured Actress in a Musical: Natalie Venetia Belcon, Buena Vista Social Club
Featured Actor in a Musical: Jak Malone, Operation Mincemeat
Direction of a Musical: Jamie Lloyd, Sunset Blvd.
Original Score: Maybe Happy Ending
Book of a Musical: Maybe Happy Ending
Choreography: Buena Vista Social Club
Scenic Design of a Musical: Maybe Happy Ending
Costume Design of a Musical: Death Becomes Her
Lighting Design of a Musical: Sunset Blvd.
Sound Design of a Musical: Sunset Blvd.
Orchestrations: Buena Vista Social Club
Lead Actress in a Play: Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray
Lead Actor in a Play: Cole Escola, Oh Mary!
Featured Actress in a Play: Jessica Hecht, Eureka Day
Featured Actor in a Play: Conrad Ricamora, Oh Mary!
Direction of a Play: Sam Pinkleton, Oh Mary!
Scenic Design of a Play: Stranger Things: The First Shadow
Costume Design of a Play: The Picture of Dorian Gray
Lighting Design of a Play: Stranger Things: The First Shadow
Sound Design of a Play: The Picture of Dorian Gray
Hacks (Season Finale)
I feel like a bit of a hypocrite after I slammed The Last of Us for ending on a cliffhanger to say that I wish Hacks had left things on more of a cliffhanger, but that's the reward for Hacks coming back on schedule (except for once due to the strikes and a health issue for Jean Smart). So, I have always been OK with the show leaving on a cliffhanger, like last year's epic ending. This year had that moment, but it was in the penultimate episode. The writers made a curious choice to go one more episode that definitely felt more like a season premiere than a season finale. While I was one of the few who were more mixed on the previous episode, I was fine with where it left things. I feel like it sort of put the cart before the horse by giving us so much of the next phase. I know the show is pivoting again with Deborah and Ava ready to fight and write new material, but again, that doesn't feel connected to the events of this season. It was still a good episode and season but there were definitely more bumps along the way than in the near-perfect third season.
The Handmaid's Tale (Series Finale)
I fell behind on the final season of The Handmaid's Tale but caught up in time for the series finale this week. This was certainly not a show that needed to last for six seasons. It didn't have six seasons worth of story to tell. That was apparent through the first half of the final season, which was as meandering as so many seasons since the first season. However, once the show started to pivot toward its endgame, it got better. The penultimate episode was pretty thrilling from start to finish and the series finale, while quieter than you might expect for a show like this, was thoughtful and reflective. I was ready for this show to be done but I thought it went out reasonably well for the dips it had along the way.
THE EMMY RACE for SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
The Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series race has a two time defending champ ruling the category once again. Ebon Moss-Bachrach rode the wave of The Bear to a win two years ago and then still got a win last year even when the voters seemed to sour on the show. Can it happen again? A win might depend on how the fourth season is received, even though this nomination would be for the third season, but a nomination is pretty much a guarantee. Moss-Bachrach is not the only former nominee eligible again. This is a rare category where every nominee from last season is eligible again. That includes Moss-Bachrach's co-star Lionel Boyce as well as Paul W. Downs from Hacks, Tyler James Williams from Abbott Elementary, Paul Rudd from Only Murders in the Building and Bowen Yang from Saturday Night Live. Downs and Williams seem like good bets to get back in. Boyce could return but it would mean The Bear reverses its dwindling Emmy love in a big way. Rudd is only in this category because of new rules to the guest categories. While I'd be surprised if he got in for having so little to do, you can never completely count out a namecheck. As for Yang, he could sneak in but it's a tougher category this year and the SNL stars do better when the category is weaker. Among potential new nominees, all eyes are on Harrison Ford for Shrinking. Everyone thought he'd get in two years ago and he didn't but that seems likely to change this year. Shrinking could also get a nomination for Michael Urie but he is more on the fence than Ford. You also can't count out former Ted Lasso winner Brett Goldstein for his role on Shrinking but it seems like more of a reach (for a much bigger reach, shout out to Ted McGinley). A real strong contender is Ike Barinholtz for his breakout role on The Studio. He seems almost guaranteed a spot with how much love there has been for his role. Colman Domingo could definitely get in a well-received role on The Four Seasons for a well-liked actor. Timothy Simons has a bit of a pulse for Nobody Wants This, but a nomination for him would require that show to really overperform. Kenan Thompson would technically be a returning nominee but he hasn't gotten in for Saturday Night Live since 2021 so I don't think it's happening for him or anyone besides Yang including breakout Marcello Hernandez. Chris Perfetti has never managed to get in for Abbott Elementary and I don't see that changing but he could be considered a deep dark horse alongside Matt Bomer for Mid-Century Modern and Gideon Glick for Etoile.
Projected Nominees (ranked by likelihood of a nomination)
1. Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
2. Ike Barinholtz, The Studio
2. Ike Barinholtz, The Studio
3. Paul W. Downs, Hacks
4. Harrison Ford, Shrinking
5. Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
6. Colman Domingo, The Four Seasons
Just Missing:
7. Michael Urie, Shrinking
8. Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live
9. Brett Goldstein, Shrinking
#17 - THE SOPRANOS (HBO, 1999-2007)
This might feel very low for The Sopranos, widely considered one of the greatest shows of all time. It landed where it did for two reasons. First, this excludes the first season since that was in 1999 and the first season was one of the best of the series. Second, although I think The Sopranos is a great show, it's not a show I watched when it was airing. I watched it after seeing other brilliant shows like Mad Men so maybe it didn't shine quite as brightly as it did when it premiered and there was literally nothing else like it on TV. It also rises and falls a bit in quality as the season goes on. So it's still a classic and a great show and there's no denying its place in TV history. It just isn't one of my all time top shows. That being said, there are so many things to love about the show starting with the performances of James Gandolfini and Edie Falco. Sometimes when a show comes first and others that follow are better, it's easy to dismiss the original. But so many shows I love would not exist without The Sopranos so I'm very grateful for it.
COMING UP
This week marks the start of next year's Emmy eligibility. And, as per usual for this time of year, the platforms are worrying more about summer shows and not really in the awards play zone yet though sometimes there are exceptions or happy accidents. On Wednesday, Apple TV+ premieres Stick, a gold comedy starring Owen Wilson. It seems like it'll be hard for the show to break through as it seems to fall in the platform's second tier comedy brand like Loot, Mythic Quest and others. On Thursday, Netflix launches the third season of Ginny & Georgia and the second season of Tires. Both are big populist plays by the streamer. On Friday, Starz has the fourth season premiere of BMF and Syfy has the fourth season of Resident Alien. Both are quiet shows for being in their fourth season but they must have their fans.
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