Thursday, July 13, 2023

EMMY PREVIEW: 2023 Emmy Nominations Analysis

The 75th Annual Emmy Nominations have been announced! For a complete list of nominees, click here.

For my predictions, I predicted 74.83% of nominations correctly, my best score since I started predicting in 2020. Here's some of the major storylines from this year's nominations list.

HBO DOMINATES IN DRAMA
There wasn't much room for dramas that did not air on HBO this year. Succession led all nominations with 27 while The White Lotus (24) and The Last of Us (23) were close behind. Those three shows took up the entirety of Supporting Actor and the Guest categories as well as most of the Supporting Actress category while Succession set an Emmy record with three nominees for Outstanding Lead Actor (Kieran Culkin, Jeremy Strong & Brian Cox). HBO even got one more Drama Series in the series category with House of the Dragon sneaking in as well. No other Drama series got double digit nominations so expect these three shows to dominate the winners list (let's be real, it'll probably mostly be dominated Succession). The only hope for a show other than the big three might be some vote splitting in somewhere like Lead Actor, which could pave the way for Bob Odenkirk from Better Call Saul. But that seems unlikely.

"TED LASSO" IS STILL A FORCE
Despite a third season that received lots of derision from critics, Ted Lasso did not fall apart when it came to Emmy nominations. In fact, it scored one more nomination than last year with 21, the most for any show other than the three HBO dramas listed above. The potential final season may not be the favorite for everything (The Bear and especially Jeremy Allen White makes for strong competition). But with a slight underperformance from Abbott Elementary (it missed in Writing, which was a big surprise), it looks like Lasso is the show to beat for a third consecutive season.

LIMITED SERIES IS WIDE OPEN
With The White Lotus gone from Limited Series, there is no dominant entry this year. Beef and Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story led the field with 13 nominations apiece. But they feel like wobbly frontrunners so there could be room for something like Fleishman is in Trouble or Daisy Jones & The Six to snatch the victory. Expect more spreading out of awards in this field compared to Comedy and Drama.

"JURY DUTY" IS THE SURPRISE OF THE DAY
The biggest surprise of the day was Jury Duty getting into the Comedy Series field. The Freevee series has been gaining momentum with more people discovering the show and there was some buzz for James Marsden, who was nominated. But not many were predicting it to actually bust into the Series category. 

OTHER SNUBS & SURPRISES
Besides Jury Duty getting in and Abbott Elementary missing, there were a few other notable snubs and surprises. Imelda Staunton did not get nominated for her first season as Queen Elizabeth on The Crown in a role that won Emmys for Olivia Colman and Claire Foy. It was quite surprising that Harrison Ford missed for Shrinking when Jason Segel and Jessica Williams got in. I could have seen the show not getting anything but if there were going to get major nominations, which they did, it was shocking to see Ford left off the list. Jury Duty getting into Comedy Series may have come at the expense of Poker Face. Although Natasha Lyonne did get a nomination, it has to be a bitter pill for Peacock to swallow that their first big noisy show couldn't break through with a series nod. Steve Martin was a surprising omission for Only Murders in the Building with his co-star Martin Short getting nominated again. Former winner Tony Shalhoub did not get in for a fifth time for The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel while many are lamenting another snub for Barry's Sarah Goldberg.

The Emmys are currently scheduled for Monday, September 18 but we'll see if it actually happens on that date with the WGA Strike and a potential SAG-AFTRA strike.

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