This week and next week, I will take a look at each of the main Emmy acting races as well as the Series races. I will also list my most likely nominees in each category. I will caveat that this is still early and these are my projections as of now. A lot can change between now and mid-July when the Emmy nominations are announced. I will post my final predictions the week of the Emmy nominations but here's how I see things right now.
Today, I am looking at Outstanding Supporting Actress categories in Comedy, Drama and Limited Series.
Supporting Actress is a crowded field with a lot of potential returning nominees. The field is led by the previous two winners, 2022's Sheryl Lee Ralph for Abbott Elementary and 2021's Hannah Waddingham for Ted Lasso. Both ladies are locked for nominations and could each be a threat to return to the winner's circle with Ralph a more likely repeat. Another former winner is in the mix too. Alex Borstein won for The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel in 2018 and 2019. She seems very likely to get another nomination for the show's final season but I don't think she's a threat to win. Ralph was a surprise winner last year as many thought the award might go to her Abbott Elementary co-star Janelle James, who seems certain to get nominated again but is tracking behind Ralph this time around. If Abbott has a really big showing, I wouldn't count out Lisa Ann Walter also getting in. Speaking of co-stars, Waddingham's co-star Juno Temple could get a third consecutive nomination though her storyline this season has been criticized by many. And while she only appeared in a handful of episodes before her departure, I certainly wouldn't count out a farewell nomination for Cecily Strong for Saturday Night Live. Then there's the Sarah Goldberg question. The Barry co-star was a surprise snub last season after receiving a nomination in 2019. We'll have to see if the strong reaction to her snub last year gets her back in this time. Zazie Beetz was nominated for Atlanta way back in 2018 and could get back in but it seems like her time has passed. Ditto for Marin Hinkle, who was nominated twice before for The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel but missed last year. Among potential new nominees, the best bet is Ayo Edebiri for The Bear. The series seems likely to get a lot of nominations which should help Edebiri. The chances for Shrinking are a little more up in the air but Jessica Williams certainly has a chance. Most people seem to think Wednesday will be confined to Jenna Ortega with an outside chance for Series as far as above the line nominations, but if it overperforms, I wouldn't count out Gwendoline Christie. The Saturday Night Live nominations seem to be dwindling but Ego Nwodim or Heidi Gardner would be the best bets outside of Strong. Schmigadoon has moved over to Variety Series but the actors stay in this category and there is some buzz for Jane Krakowski with less of a chance for Kristin Chenoweth. Dark horses include Molly Shannon for The Other Two and Michaela Jae Rodriguez for Loot, but their shows don't seem to have broken through enough for a nomination. It's hard to imagine anyone else not mentioned getting in but Sarah Niles was a huge surprise last year so I'll throw out a couple more dark horses: Danielle Pinnock for Ghosts, Jayne Houdyshell for Only Murders in the Building and Christa Miller for Shrinking.
Predicted Nominees
These are ranked in order of most likely to get a nomination.
1. Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
2. Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso
3. Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
4. Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
5. Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
6. Lisa Ann Walter, Abbott Elementary
7. Juno Temple, Ted Lasso
8. Sarah Goldberg, Barry
Just Missing:
9. Jessica Williams, Shrinking
10. Cecily Strong, Saturday Night Live
The drama categories got a huge influx of contenders in supporting categories once The White Lotus moved from Limited Series to Drama. So now, last year's winner in the Limited Series field, Jennifer Coolidge, is the frontrunner for this award. In addition to Coolidge, there are her White Lotus co-stars Aubrey Plaza, Meghann Fahy, Sabrina Impacciatore and Haley Lu Richardson all in the mix. After last year's domination of The White Lotus in the Supporting categories, there has to at least be a possibility of huge haul though I'd be surprised to see it as dominant as last year. That's partly because there are other strong contenders standing in the way of Lotus going crazy. Sarah Snook would have led that list but she is most likely moving over to Lead so now the best bet for Succession is J. Smith-Cameron to repeat. After finally breaking into the nominations last year, Rhea Seehorn seems likely to get another nomination for the final season of Better Call Saul while Carol Burnett seems to be a sentimental choice for her arc in the final batch of episodes. Another possible returning nominee could be Christina Ricci for Yellowjackets, but I don't feel as sure about her chances. The Handmaid's Tale is eligible again and boasted four nominees in this category two years ago but buzz seems to have fallen off a cliff for this show. Still, I wouldn't totally count out former nominees Yvonne Strahovski, Samira Wiley, Madeline Brewer or previous winner Ann Dowd. Of that group, Strahovski had the most material in the most recent season. We haven't seen how this new cast of The Crown will fare at the Emmys and the response to this season was more muted, but Emmy voters love The Crown and I expect Elizabeth Debicki to get in for her Princess Diana portrayal while Lesley Manville has a chance if The Crown overperforms. If House of the Dragon makes some noise, don't count out Milly Alcock or Olivia Cooke. While The Last of Us seems more likely to make noise in Lead and Guest categories I wouldn't count out Anna Torv if the show has a big haul in general. Unlikely dark horses include Juliet Rylance for Perry Mason, Audra McDonald for the final season of The Good Fight and Genevieve O'Reilly for Andor.
Predicted Nominees
These are ranked in order of most likely to get a nomination.
1. Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus
2. Aubrey Plaza, The White Lotus
3. J. Smith-Cameron, Succession
4. Rhea Seehorn, Better Call Saul
5. Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown
6. Meghann Fahy, The White Lotus
7. Carol Burnett, Better Call Saul
8. Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets
Just Missing:
9. Sabrina Impacciatore, The White Lotus
10. Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid's Tale
In general, the Limited Series field is weaker than it has been in recent years and it also feels more up in the air than Comedy or Drama. The only actress who seems like a lock for a nomination in my eyes is Niecy Nash-Betts for Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story. She had the most acclaimed performance in the most successful limited series of the year. Because Monster was just so much more successful than most anything else in this field, I wouldn't count out Michael Learned either. Next up, and certainly a threat to win, is Claire Danes for Fleishman is in Trouble with a very notable episode under her belt though the show itself seemed to fly under the radar a bit. After that, it gets really murky. The White House Plumbers is a late addition to the contenders but Lena Headey and Judy Greer have a chance in this bizarre category. Beef is a strong contender overall but supporting actress is its weakest area. Still, a big day for the show could help Ashley Park or Maria Bello. I'm a little dubious about the chances for Five Days at Memorial in general but Cherry Jones might be the best bet for that show. Great Expectations hasn't really broken through but you can never discount Olivia Colman for a nomination at any awards show. There are so many examples of acclaimed actors in shows but you just have to wonder how the show is going to do in general. So that brings up contenders like Anna Paquin for A Friend of the Family and Lily Rabe for Love and Death. If their shows get in the mix, they certainly could too. It seems pretty unlikely but the Emmys love Jennifer Coolidge so it's possible she could sneak in for The Watcher. Daisy Jones & The Six seems much more likely to get nominations in the Lead categories but I wouldn't count out Suki Waterhouse or Camila Morrone. Some dark horses include Merritt Wever for Tiny Beautiful Things, Linda Emond for The Patient and Carrie Coon for the movie (because yes, they technically can be included here) Boston Strangler.
Predicted Nominees
These are ranked in order of most likely to get a nomination.
1. Niecy Nash-Betts, Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
2. Claire Danes, Fleishman is in Trouble
3. Lena Headey, White House Plumbers
4. Michael Learned, Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
5. Ashley Park, Beef
6. Cherry Jones, Five Days at Memorial
Just Missing:
7. Judy Greer, White House Plumbers
8. Olivia Colman, Great Expectations
Tomorrow: A look at the Supporting Actor Races!
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