Finishing up my Emmy Preview, I am taking a look at the Outstanding Series races in Comedy, Drama and Limited Series. I will also list my most likely nominees in each category as of this moment. Stay tuned in July for my final Emmy nomination predictions.
This is the final post for the "season" for my blog but come back each day in July for my fourth annual Benjamonster Awards!
The competition in comedy is fierce with six of the eight nominees from last year returning. They are led by two time defending champion Ted Lasso, which is looking to win its third straight. The returns on Lasso seem to be diminishing with critics but there was some thought of that last year and then it dominated again. This year feels a little bit different in terms of public response though so while I think a nomination is assured, I don't think it is necessarily the frontrunner unless it pulls a Modern Family and keeps getting Emmys long after the public is ready to move on from the accolades. Its biggest competition is certainly Abbott Elementary, which had a sparkling second season and remains a feather in the cap of Broadcast TV. Last year at this time, the biggest threat to Ted Lasso seemed to be Barry but then Abbott came on strong over the summer of campaigning. It will be nominated again but I don't see it having a chance of a win. Ditto for 2018 winner The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel and its final season. It has solid buzz from its final season, but I think it'll have to settle for a fifth nomination. Only Murders in the Building seems very likely to get its second nomination while the most vulnerable of last year's returnees is probably What We Do in the Shadows. Other nominees from previous years that are eligible include Cobra Kai and Emily in Paris. Both were surprise nominees in the weird COVID-impacted 2021 year and have virtually no chance of breaking back in. The final seasons of Atlanta and Dead to Me have a slightly better chance but it seems like their time has passed. So then we look to potential first time nominees. The lock among the newbies is The Bear, which was a sensation on the winter awards circuit and is certain to get a nomination. The next tier would be a trio of new series that could get in: Wednesday on Netflix, Poker Face on Peacock and Shrinking on Apple TV+. Wednesday had the most visibility as a hugely popular Netflix title, Poker Face was a breakthrough show for Peacock and the best reviewed of the three but Peacock as a platform hasn't done anything at the Emmys. Shrinking has the most Emmy names attached between its cast and creative team but didn't really break through as much. I think all three are hovering around the line between the nominees and the also-rans. Right now, I lean towards Poker Face as having the best chance. The next tier would be returning shows that have their fans but haven't been able to break through yet. That includes Schmigadoon, The Great and Reservation Dogs. I don't totally count out any of those shows but they have an uphill climb. Then there's longshots that would make some people happy but seem very unlikely to happen. That includes Ghosts, The Other Two and Somebody Somewhere.
Predicted Nominees
These are ranked in order of most likely to get a nomination.
1. Ted Lasso
2. Abbott Elementary
3. The Bear
4. Barry
5. Only Murders in the Building
6. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
7. What We Do in the Shadows
8. Poker Face
Just Missing:
9. Wednesday
10. Shrinking
The Drama series field is primarily an HBO bloodbath. HBO is certain to take up three of the slots with frontrunner and defending champion Succession, new to the category The White Lotus (a winner in Limited Series last year) and acclaimed newbie The Last of Us. Succession will be hard to beat for its final season though Emmy voters loved The White Lotus last year too. The Last of Us probably isn't a threat to win so its nomination will be the win. JBO could tie a record by having four nominees in the category too if House of the Dragon gets in but the Game of Thrones spinoff is less of a sure thing. Among non-HBO shows, there are two of last year's nominees that are eligible again: the final season of Better Call Saul on AMC and the second season of Showtime's Yellowjackets. Saul seems to be a lock for a nomination with a very acclaimed final season even though that season aired nearly a year ago. Yellowjackets feels a little more precarious with a second season that hasn't gotten the buzz (ha!) of the first season. But it still definitely could get in especially because the field weakens after the locks. One of the most notable returnees in 2021's winner The Crown. The fifth season, with a new cast, did not get the buzz or acclaim of previous seasons but after sweeping the Drama field two years ago, it seems really hard to believe it won't get a nomination. Other nominees from two years ago include The Boys, The Mandalorian and previous winner The Handmaid's Tale. Interestingly, The Boys has kept the critical buzz but I see that as a lost cause and Handmaid's and Mandalorian as still having a chance despite mixed critical response to their most recent seasons. There's sort of a jumbled mess once you get past the three HBO locks, The Crown and Better Call Saul. So other nominees could be The Old Man from FX, Andor from Disney+ (instead of The Mandalorian?) or the always pesky Yellowstone, which has yet to break through. There are some touting the chances of Bad Sisters but I just don't see it happening. I wouldn't totally rule out the popcorn hit The Night Agent just because of its sheer visibility in being one of Netflix's most watched shows ever. The Diplomat has a chance too with a late release and some decent buzz though I like Keri Russell's chances better than the series. Longshots include the big budgeted The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power for Amazon and 1923 for Paramount+. There's technically another previous nominee hiding way down on the list in the cancelled Westworld but that's not going to happen. A couple dark horses are Interview with the Vampire and Slow Horses.
Predicted Nominees
These are ranked in order of most likely to get a nomination.
1. Succession
2. The White Lotus
3. Better Call Saul
4. The Crown
5. The Last of Us
6. Yellowjackets
7. House of the Dragon
8. Andor
Just Missing:
9. The Handmaid's Tale
10. The Mandalorian
The Limited Series field feels much less competitive than recent years and even last year's group was an odd mix. So a lot could happen here. The two near locks are the two big Netflix entries: Beef, which was a surprise addition to this category and Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story, which was the most watched Limited Series of the year. The race seems likely to be between these two and I like Beef's chances to get the momentum towards a win. After that, it really gets odd. Hulu's Fleishman is in Trouble received a lot of acclaim but struggled to break into the conversation during its run that coincided with the end of year holidays. Black Bird on Apple TV+ was an early entry that has done well enough on the Winter Awards circuit to be likely to get a nomination. Newer entries White House Plumbers on HBO, Love and Death on HBO Max and Daisy Jones and the Six on Amazon all have their supporters but none of those feel like certain nominations with mixed reviews. Showtime's George and Tammy has Jessica Chastain to boast about but I don't feel great about its chances to sneak into the series field here. I certainly wouldn't rule it out though. The Patient on FX/Hulu had some people talking in the fall but it seems to be losing momentum. After The Mandalorian nominations, you can't rule out Star Wars shows so Obi-Wan Kenobi has a chance, but I'd be surprised. The English on Amazon had some critical love but hasn't seemed to be able to get into the conversation. And I just don't see it happening for Five Days at Memorial. Some dark horses include Swarm on Amazon, which feels too "out there" for Emmy voters, Extrapolations on Apple TV+ and the Hulu duo of Tiny Beautiful Things and Welcome to Chippendale's. If you're looking for a dark horse that could shake things up, you might want to look at Amazon's Dead Ringers, which could be a surprise contender.
Predicted Nominees
These are ranked in order of most likely to get a nomination.
1. Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
2. Beef
3. Black Bird
4. Fleishman is in Trouble
5. Daisy Jones and the Six
Just Missing:
6. White House Plumbers
7. George and Tammy
See you in July for the Benjamonster Awards!
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