Continuing my Emmy Preview, I am taking a look at the Outstanding Supporting Actor races in Comedy, Drama and Limited Series. As with yesterday, I will also list my most likely nominees in each category as of now with the caveat that my final prediction list will come closer to the actual nominations announcement in July.
There's a chance this category could be full of Ted Lasso and Barry actors again with all of last year's nominees eligible again. Leading the pack is the defending two time winner Brett Goldstein, who could easily threepeat as one of Ted Lasso's most popular characters. He's not the only previous winner likely to get a nomination though with former winners Henry Winkler for Barry and Tony Shalhoub for The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel likely to get nominations for their farewell runs. This category had three nominees for Ted Lasso last year and four in 2021 so you have to see past nominees Nick Mohammed, Toheeb Jimoh, Brendan Hunt and Jeremy Swift all as possibilities and maybe even Phil Dunster. I am just not convinced that Ted Lasso will have the haul it has had the past couple years. Then there's those other Barry co-stars too. Anthony Carrigan seems like a likely nominee while there's a chance Stephen Root could sneak back in. I think Abbott Elementary is likely to have a big year so I think Tyler James Williams is a lock while Chris Perfetti or even William Stanford Davis could sneak in. Saturday Night Live is always a threat for nominations but Kenan Thompson was left out last year. He could get back in but the competition is stiff so the more likely scenario is a repeat nomination for Bowen Yang. There's one more former nominee in the mix too as Brian Tyree Henry could sneak in for the final season of Atlanta but it seems like Atlanta's time has come and gone. Among new nominees, one to watch out for is Harrison Ford for Shrinking. The veteran actor has given an acclaimed performance in the role and could easily get a nod. The Bear could be a big player on nominations morning and if that's the case, I wouldn't count out Ebon Moss-Bachrach. James Marsden was well-liked on Dead to Me but the competition seems too fierce for him to get it. And I wouldn't totally rule out a posthumous nomination for Leslie Jordan for Call Me Kat but I don't think that will actually happen. A few dark horses are Titus Burgess for Schmigadoon, Harvey Guillen for What We Do in the Shadows and Brandon Scott Jones for Ghosts.
Predicted Nominees
These are ranked in order of most likely to get a nomination.
1. Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso
2. Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
3. Henry Winkler, Barry
4. Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
5. Anthony Carrigan, Barry
6. Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live
7. Harrison Ford, Shrinking
8. Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
Just Missing:
9. Nick Mohammed, Ted Lasso
10. Chris Perfetti, Abbott Elementary
This category is going to be all about Succession even with Kieran Culkin moving to Lead. It is not confirmed yet that Brian Cox is coming to this category but that appears possible and if it happens, he'll certainly get a nomination. He'll be joined by last year's winner Matthew Mcfadyen while Alexander Skarsgard, Nicholas Braun and Alan Ruck could all get in as well (I would say their chances go in that order). It seems unlikely that Succession would take up five of the eight slots but you never know. Among the new cast of The White Lotus, the most likely nominee was presumed to be F. Murray Abraham but his recent scandal may doom his chances. So will voters look in another direction with The White Lotus when they're likely to nominate several in Supporting Actress? That could open the door for Michael Imperioli, Theo James, Will Sharpe and Tom Hollander. I don't think we can totally rule Abraham out though either. There are some other previous nominees scattered about: O-T Fagbenle, Max Minghella and Bradley Whitford are all former nominees for The Handmaid's Tale but I'm not sold on any of them coming back with the buzz falling off a cliff for that show. The Crown is always an Emmy contender but we'll see how the new cast does. If it continues to have Emmy love then that bodes well for Jonathan Pryce as an older version of the character Tobias Menzies won for two year sago. Speaking of The Crown, John Lithgow won for that show in its first season and is now up for the first season of The Old Man. You can never rule out an awards-bait actor like Lithgow. Giancarlo Esposito could return for Better Call Saul as could Jonathan Banks but I like Esposito's chances more. It remains to be seen how House of the Dragon will do but Matt Smith seems as good a bet as any to get a nomination. Dark horses include Rufus Sewell for The Diplomat, Elijah Wood for Yellowjackets, and Andre Braugher for The Good Fight.
Predicted Nominees
These are ranked in order of most likely to get a nomination.
1. Matthew Mcfadyen, Succession
2. Brian Cox, Succession
3. Giancarlo Esposito, Better Call Saul
4. Jonathan Pryce, The Crown
5. Matt Smith, House of the Dragon
6. Alexander Skarsgard, Succession
7. Nicholas Braun, Succession
8. Tom Hollander, The White Lotus
Just Missing:
9. Alan Ruck, Succession
10. F. Murray Abraham, The White Lotus
As mentioned in Supporting Actress, the Limited Series field is more barren this year. This category in particular feels like it could go any number of ways and could be the weakest of all the acting categories. A wobbly frontrunner is Paul Walter Hauser for Black Bird. He feels like he could win but I also could see a world where he doesn't even get nominated. Black Bird could also nab a nomination for the late Ray Liotta in one of his final roles. If Black Bird does really well then I suppose Greg Kinnear has a chance too. A more sure thing nomination appears to be Richard Jenkins for the most popular limited series of the year, Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story. Beef was a late entry to the limited series race but Netflix is pushing it so I like the chances for Young Mazino. The Patient seems to be a real question mark as far as if it will get any Emmy attention but if it does then Domhnall Gleeson stands a pretty good chance. Gleeson also has a chance to get nominated for White House Plumbers. Murray Bartlett was an Emmy winner in the Limited Series field last year so while Welcome to Chippendales was not that well received, I wouldn't count him out. The same is true for The English and Ciaran Hinds. The English doesn't seem likely to be a big player yet Hinds could get in with this field so wide open. Love & Death seems to be mostly about Elizabeth Olsen but Jesse Plemons has a chance too. This category is also open to movies so Bowen Yang could get in for Fire Island. In a wide open field, there are chances for nominees like Hayden Christensen for Obi-Wan Kenobi and Colin Hanks for A Friend of the Family. The next tier down, which would seem impossible in a normal year but not this year, includes Walton Goggins and Steve Zahn for George and Tammy, Christian Slater for Fleishman is in Trouble and David Alan Grier for The Patient.
Predicted Nominees
These are ranked in order of most likely to get a nomination.
1. Richard Jenkins, Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
2. Paul Walter Hauser, Black Bird
3. Ray Liotta, Black Bird
4. Young Mazino, Beef
5. Domhnall Gleeson, The Patient
6. Murray Bartlett, Welcome to Chippendales
Just Missing:
7. Ciaran Hinds, The English
8. Hayden Christensen, Obi-Wan Kenobi
Tomorrow: The Friday Five - Top 5 TV news stories of the week!
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