Continuing my Emmy Preview, I am taking a look at the Outstanding Lead Actress races in Comedy, Drama and Limited Series. As I did with the Supporting categories last week, I will also list my most likely nominees in each category as of now with the caveat that my final prediction list will come closer to the actual nominations announcement in July.
This is a competitive category even with two-time defending champion Jean Smart not in the mix this year. With Smart ineligible, the leading contender could be Quinta Brunson for Abbott Elementary. Brunson already won a Writing award last year and is probably the frontrunner. She's a lock for a nomination but there are many contenders for a win. There is one returning winner, Rachel Brosnahan won in this category in 2018 and will be looking for her fifth and final nomination for The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. It seems like Brosnahan's time to win might have passed, but she has received a lot of acclaim for the show's final season. Another final season contender is Christina Applegate for Dead to Me. Nominated twice before, Applegate has the compelling story of fighting through her MS diagnosis to get the final season completed. Her Dead to Me co-star Linda Cardellini could return as well but I don't like her chances as much. Elle Fanning snuck into this category last year for The Great and could return but the new competition will make things tough. The new competition is led by Jenna Ortega, who is the best chance for Wednesday to get above the line recognition. Natasha Lyonne won a lot of acclaim for Poker Face and the series seems to have broken through in a way no previous Peacock series has. But it's still a Peacock show so we'll see if it can actually make some noise. There's an interesting case with Selena Gomez. Despite the love for Only Murders in the Building across the board last year, Gomez was snubbed. She had a meatier storyline this year and I think she's teetering right on the edge of getting a nomination. It seems hard to imagine anyone besides the names listed above getting in but there are some dark horses. Both Cecily Strong for Schmigadoon and Bridget Everett for Somebody Somewhere have their fans but I'm not sure either show is buzzy enough to break through. Some unlikely dark horses include Natasia Demetriou for What We Do in the Shadows, Kerry Washington for UnPrisoned and Maya Rudolph for Loot.
Predicted Nominees
These are ranked in order of most likely to get a nomination.
1. Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
2. Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
3. Christina Applegate, Dead to Me
4. Jenna Ortega, Wednesday
5. Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face
6. Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building
Just Missing:
7. Elle Fanning, The Great
8. Linda Cardellini, Dead to Me
This will be an interesting category with only one of last year's six nominees eligible again this year. That one is Melanie Lynskey for Yellowjackets. Lynskey seems very likely to repeat as a nominee especially given the major turnover that will happen in the category overall. The biggest contender though is Sarah Snook assuming she moves from Supporting to Lead, which seems very likely from recent reporting. In a fairly weak field for Drama Lead Actress, she immediately becomes the frontrunner. There is only one other former nominee in the mix this year and that is Elisabeth Moss for The Handmaid's Tale. While Handmaid's is certainly not the juggernaut it once was, its best chance is probably still Moss in a less competitive category than the Supporting ones. Leading the potential newbies is Bella Ramsey, who seems very likely to pick up a nomination for The Last of Us and could be a contender to win. Claire Foy and Olivia Colman were both nominated twice in this category as Queen Elizabeth on The Crown so it seems likely that Imelda Stanton will follow in their footsteps despite less acclaim for the series this year. The Taylor Sheridan shows struggle to break through into Emmy conversations but Helen Mirren is a huge, awards-bait name and she could easily get in for 1923. House of the Dragon is one of the shows that is sort of lurking right around the line of getting a lot of nominations or being a severe underperformer. But one of their better chances, even if it underperforms, is Emma D'Arcy. Only Melanie Lynskey broke in for Yellowjackets in this category last year but I wouldn't count out her co-stars Juliette Lewis or Tawny Cypress this year (I feel better about Lewis than Cypress though). Keri Russell was a late entry for The Diplomat but the show got good reviews. I have a hard time seeing Bad Sisters being a thing in this category but it has its supporters so Sharon Horgan stands a chance. Every year it seems like Kelly Reilly gets talked about for Yellowstone but she never gets in and now she's got competition in her corner of the world from Mirren so I don't think she's likely to get in. Hilary Swank was a surprise Golden Globe nominee for Alaska Daily but I have a hard time believing she'll repeat here. Some dark horses include Christine Baranski for The Good Fight (she got in many times for The Good Wife but never its sequel series) and Betty Gilpin for Mrs. Davis.
Predicted Nominees
These are ranked in order of most likely to get a nomination.
1. Sarah Snook, Succession
2. Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets
3. Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us
4. Imelda Staunton, The Crown
5. Emma D'Arcy, House of the Dragon
6. Helen Mirren, 1923
Just Missing:
7. Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid's Tale
8. Keri Russell, The Diplomat
I don't need to keep harping on this but Limited Series is such a weird field this year and this category feels like it could go so many different ways. It's hard to know which Limited Series will break through and one of the more likely ones (Dahmer) doesn't have anyone eligible in this category. This looked wide open until a few weeks ago when Beef moved into the Limited Series field. Now I think we have to look at Ali Wong as the leading contender. But I wouldn't consider her a dominant frontrunner. If it's not her, who is it? Could it be Oscar nominee Jessica Chastain, who was a surprise SAG Award winner for George & Tammy. Could it be Riley Keough for the buzzy Daisy Jones & The Six? Could it be Lizzy Caplan for an acclaimed performance in Fleishman is in Trouble? You could make an argument for or against any of them really being in the mix or not. Elizabeth Olsen was a nominee in this category for WandaVision two years ago and has been getting good notices for Love & Death even as the show itself has gotten a more mixed reception. There seems to be mixed expectations for Emily Blunt, who was acclaimed for The English but had a mixed track record at the winter awards. Kathryn Hahn consistently delivers acclaimed performances and many though she would win the Supporting Actress award in this field two years ago for WandaVision so I think she has a chance for Tiny Beautiful Things even though the show didn't make much of an impact. I'm pretty dubious on the chances for Five Days at Memorial because it feels like that show came and went, but Vera Farmiga certainly has a chance. Jennifer Garner is a big name who could be in the mix for The Last Thing He Told Me. Swarm feels a little too out there to get nominated but Dominique Fishback gave an acclaimed performance. Ditto for Rachel Weisz and Dead Ringers though I think Weisz has a chance. Can you tell I have no idea about this category? Most of the time when I list dark horses, I don't really think they have a chance but you never know with this one. So dark horses include Naomi Watts for The Watcher and Bel Powley for A Small Light.
Predicted Nominees
These are ranked in order of most likely to get a nomination.
1. Ali Wong, Beef
2. Jessica Chastain, George & Tammy
3. Riley Keough, Daisy Jones & The Six
4. Elizabeth Olsen, Love & Death
5. Lizzy Caplan, Fleishman is in Trouble
Just Missing:
6. Kathryn Hahn, Tiny Beautiful Things
7. Emily Blunt, The English
Tomorrow: A look at the Emmy Lead Actor races!
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