Continuing my Emmy Preview, I am taking a look at the Outstanding Lead Actor races in Comedy, Drama and Limited Series. As with all other Emmy posts, I will also list my most likely nominees in each category as of now with the caveat that my final prediction list will come closer to the actual nominations announcement in July.
Lead Actor in a Comedy Series is interesting because it's one of only two major categories where all of last year's nominees are eligible again (the other is Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series). Jason Sudeikis is a two time defending champion for Ted Lasso. If this indeed proves to be Lasso's final season or at least the final season for Sudeikis, he'll be a threat to threepeat, but the backlash to Lasso seems even stronger this year so who knows. Last year, this was seen by many as a two man race between Sudeikis and Bill Hader for Barry. The two of them are locks and it really seems like the Only Murders in the Building duo Steve Martin and Martin Short are as well. Both are beloved in the industry and on the show. The other two nominees from last year feel less likely to repeat. Donald Glover still got in last year despite the drop off in interest in Atlanta and I could see that going a step further this year with Glover dropping out of contention. Nicholas Hoult was a surprise nominee for The Great last year and could repeat but also might step aside for someone new. At least one of those seem unlikely to repeat because there's a near lock for a newcomer in Jeremy Allen White for The Bear. After winning the Golden Globe and SAG, he'll definitely be a threat to Sudeikis and Hader and could even be considered the frontrunner. The other newcomer to watch is Jason Segel for Shrinking. Despite mixed reception to his performance, I think he has a pretty good chance. It seems hard to believe someone not already listed would break in but there is another former nominee in Ramy Youssef for Ramy. Nominated in 2020, I think his time for an Emmy nomination for his show has come and gone. Tulsa King has labeled itself a comedy so Sylvester Stallone is in the mix, but is very unlikely. And you can never count out Bob Odenkirk but he seems much more likely to get a Drama nomination for Better Call Saul than a comedy nomination for Lucky Hank. A few dark horses, and I mean very dark horses because I don't see them winning, are Mohammed Amer for Mo, Nathan Fielder for The Rehearsal and John Larroquette for a role that won him four Emmy awards in the 1980s on Night Court.
Predicted Nominees
These are ranked in order of most likely to get a nomination.
1. Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
2. Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
3. Bill Hader, Barry
4. Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
5. Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
6. Jason Segel, Shrinking
Just Missing:
7. Donald Glover, Atlanta
8. Nicholas Hoult, The Great
Succession is likely going to have a good night in September and they could easily get three nominees in this category with the news that Kieran Culkin has moved into the category and Brian Cox will be staying in the category despite limited screen time. They join 2020 winner Jeremy Strong in competing for the prize. Cox doesn't really make sense in this category but he will still get nominated. Last year's winner, Lee Jung-jae, is not eligible so the biggest threat in the event of a vote splitting situation might be the sentimental choice of Bob Odenkirk for the final season of Better Call Saul. If it wasn't also the final season for Succession, I might have liked Odenkirk's chances more to win. Either way, all three men are a lock for nominations. The only other former nominee in the mix is Matthew Rhys, who was nominated in 2021 for Perry Mason and could return though the show hasn't gotten much attention. So then we turn to the newbies. Leading that pack is another HBO star, Pedro Pascal for The Last of Us. An "it" man for 2023, he should be considered a lock. After that, it gets a little more dicey. Although The Old Man didn't break through in a big way, Jeff Bridges is a beloved actor and could easily score a nomination for that show. There's a decent chance Harrison Ford will get a nomination for Supporting Actor in the Comedy field for Shrinking but he could be a two time nominee with a nod in this category for 1923. I think it's really uncertain how Andor will do overall but I think Diego Luna has a decent chance for a nomination. Every year, Kevin Costner's name gets tossed around for Yellowstone and he did win a Golden Globe but I don't think he's getting nominated here. Josh O'Connor was a winner here for the role of Prince Charles on The Crown so I don't think you can count out his successor, Dominic West, even if The Crown has lost some of its firepower. House of the Dragon is a big wildcard but if it comes up big on nominations morning, then I like the chances for Paddy Considine. Some dark horses include Bryan Cranston for Your Honor, Antony Starr for The Boys and Pedro Pascal (again!) for The Mandalorian.
Predicted Nominees
These are ranked in order of most likely to get a nomination.
1. Jeremy Strong, Succession
2. Kieran Culkin, Succession
3. Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
4. Brian Cox, Succession
5. Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us
6. Jeff Bridges, The Old Man
Just Missing:
7. Dominic West, The Crown
8. Diego Luna, Andor
Have I mentioned how weird the Limited Series field is this year? Lead Actor feels a little less barren than Lead Actress though thanks to a few stars from shows that are considered leading contenders. That starts with Evan Peters for his portrayal of Jeffrey Dahmer on Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story. Dahmer was the biggest hit of the year in this field by far so Peters is the frontrunner though not the strongest frontrunner we've seen. He was more of a frontrunner before Beef entered the category. Now Steven Yeun is a definite threat to take this away from Peters. Don't be surprised if that happens. Black Bird has had its supporters which could push Taron Egerton to a nomination. Then there's the recent entry The White House Plumbers, which has contenders in both Woody Harrelson and Justin Theroux. In this field, it's not out of the realm that both could get nominated even though the show has received mixed reviews. The Patient doesn't seem to have a ton of support but Steve Carell won lots of acclaim for his role and is a well-known name. It's also not clear where the Academy stands on Fleishman is in Trouble but if it breaks through in nominations than Jesse Eisenberg stands a good chance. This is a category for movies too so many think Daniel Radcliffe could/will get in. I need to see more TV movie actors getting nominated again before I can believe that. George and Tammy seemed to come and go but some of the winter awards gave it some attention so I wouldn't count out Michael Shannon. While Elizabeth Olsen seems to have a good chance for Love and Death, it's a little murkier for Jesse Plemons. Beyond that, it's sort of a crapshoot. Star Wars shows haven't done anything outside of The Mandalorian but awards shows love Ewan McGregor. Remember, he was a surprise winner two years ago for Halston so don't count him out for Obi-Wan Kenobi. Other dark horses (that aren't as dark horsey as some other categories) include Jake Lacy for A Friend of the Family, Sam Claflin for Daisy Jones and the Six and Kumail Nanjiani for Welcome to Chippendale's. I don't think any of those three are impossibilities.
Predicted Nominees
These are ranked in order of most likely to get a nomination.
1. Evan Peters, Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
2. Steven Yeun, Beef
3. Woody Harrelson, White House Plumbers
4. Taron Egerton, Black Bird
5. Steve Carell, The Patient
Just Missing:
6. Jesse Eisenberg, Fleishman is in Trouble
7. Daniel Radcliffe, Weird: The Al Yankovic Story
Tomorrow: A look at the Emmys Series races!
No comments:
Post a Comment