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Tuesday, September 16, 2014

FALL PREVIEW 2014: Tuesday

Here is my Fall Preview for Tuesday: a night that sees networks do more tweaking than major overhauls. Many of the networks are trying a similar approach but with different shows but there's a few that could have a real hard time here. It's also the night with the most new shows.

Past Tuesday Previews: 2013    2012    2011    2010

ABC
8:00 SELFIE
8:30 MANHATTAN LOVE STORY
9:00 Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (2nd season)
10:00 FOREVER
Tuesday is all over the map for ABC, just like last year. Starting off the night are two unpromising comedies in ABC's constant attempt to get some hip adult sitcoms to go with its roster of family sitcoms. Selfie and Manhattan Love Story are this year's entries. Selfie has some supporters from critics while Manhattan has next to no buzz. However, both of them will likely have difficulty in a timeslot that includes hits on CBS and NBC. They are followed by Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. which is sliding back an hour. The most anticipated new show last year slid to mediocrity by season's end but the 9pm timeslot is much less of a logjam and fans seemed to like the show more as it went along. The inevitably bad lead-ins shouldn't be too much of a problem since this show is kind of its own island. Therefore, it also probably won't help ABC's latest attempt in the 10pm: new drama Forever. With a ludicrous concept, it seems destined to be the next flop in a timeslot that saw three instant bombs last season. ABC needs some coherence to this night and they still don't have it.

CBS
8:00 NCIS (12th season)
9:00 NCIS: NEW ORLEANS
10:00 Person of Interest (4th season)
CBS Tuesdays may look a lot like last year but there's one difference at 9pm - it may not be all that distinct though. Bookending the night are veteran dramas NCIS and Person of Interest. Both showed some slippage in the spring but remain strong options for their respective slots. NCIS: Los Angeles is gone from the 9pm hour and replaced by the closest possible thing: NCIS: New Orleans starring Scott Bakula. I don't think it'll ever reach the heights that NCIS: Los Angeles did because the original show isn't nearly as strong as it was five years ago. But I do think it'll fit like a glove on the night and it's probably the safest bet of any new show.

NBC
8:00 The Voice (7th edition)
9:00 MARRY ME
9:30 About a Boy (2nd season)
10:00 Chicago Fire (3rd season)
Just like CBS, NBC's night looks awfully similar to last spring with just one replacement. The Voice remains at 8pm and as always, will be strongest in the first couple weeks. The new entry is romantic sitcom Marry Me at 9pm. The show is a lighthearted romantic comedy and, on paper, seems like a good fit with both The Voice and About a Boy. However, it's been hard for comedies to break out airing after The Voice though Boy did OK last year. Speaking of Boy, it slides back half an hour to 9:30pm. It's quite possible that any momentum it had came from airing right after The Voice, but if it proves to be a good match with Marry Me, it could be a better option at 9:30pm than the cancelled Growing Up Fisher. Chicago Fire remains at 10pm and it seemed to have its own audience regardless of whether a strong episode of The Voice or a weak show like Fisher was its lead-in. This has become one of NBC's established shows.

FOX
8:00 UTOPIA

9:00 New Girl (4th season)
9:30 The Mindy Project (3rd season)
It's likely to be a rough fall for FOX Tuesdays especially given how Utopia started. FOX's new reality experiment was their hope for success at 8pm but that already seems shot given how poorly it performed in its first week against very minimal competition. Who knows if it will even live past the next couple weeks. The 9pm hour is likely to be equally weak as New Girl has taken a nosedive and The Mindy Project has never caught on. I don't see any things changing those shows fortunes in 2014-15 and I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being New Girl's last season. It's going to be ugly I think.

New Tuesday Show Survival Chances

Selfie (ABC) - Poor. Some minimal critical attention is going to be enough to make this show work. The title alone is a turnoff for many and asking it to lead-off the night is next to impossible for a show with a narrow audience.

Manhattan Love Story (ABC) - Very Poor. Every year there's one show that seems to have absolutely no buzz - think shows like How to Be a Gentlemen, Free Agents, and Lucky 7. All those shows were gone before November and I think this one will be too.

Forever (ABC) - Poor. I don't see anything in this show that's going to keep it from being the next bomb in a cursed timeslot for ABC. It may last longer than the 8pm comedies, but it's not going to be a hit.

NCIS: New Orleans (CBS) - Good. The best bet for a successful show thanks to its built-in audience. Unless the quality is noticeably bad, I think NCIS fans will eat this up - especially with Scott Bakula likely appealing to Mark Harmon fans.

Marry Me (NBC) - Fair. I could see this going either way. On one hand, it has The Voice as a lead-in and is breezy and light hearted. On the other hand, airing this early on might mean it has to air without The Voice and will get exposed as a purely lead-in dependent show like Go On was.

Utopia (FOX) - Very Poor. I think it's obvious from the ratings already that this will be toast. I don't see any scenario where things improve for this show.

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