Welcome to my Monday newsletter. With no new shows I wanted to talk about, I decided to pivot for this week and talk about the Tony nominations, which are getting revealed tomorrow morning. So, check out that post or if Broadway isn't your thing, I also have my Emmy Preview for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series and brief thoughts on Palm Royale and The Big Door Prize. And I'll be back to more TV talk next week!
It's been a wild and busy Broadway season with a record 15 new musicals opening this year (along with many revivals, plays and play revivals). But what's also been interesting is very few shows have gotten unanimous raves. The revival of Merrily We Roll Along has been the hit of the season, which is wild since the original was an all-time flop. Plays Stereophonic, Appropriate, Prayer for the French Republic and late dance entry Illinoise were also met with rave reviews. But the rest of the musicals all had their supporters and detractors so it's really anyone's guess what will happen tomorrow. It feels like it could truly be spread out like never before or we might see nominators coalesce around some of the upper tier of shows. But it's certainly more unknown than usual so it should be fun!
For musicals, it was better to be late to the game this year. The frontrunners are all recent openings: Suffs, Hell's Kitchen and the aforementioned Illinoise. The other musicals with the best reviews from the season are Days of Wine and Roses and Here Lies Love. The problem is both of them are closed and did not do well with audiences despite the critical love. If you take out the non-starters like Once Upon a One More Time, How to Dance in Ohio, Harmony (save for Chip Zien maybe) and Lempicka (save for Eden Espinosa maybe), there are a bunch of shows in the middle looking to upend the race and overtake the closed shows and frontrunners. The Outsiders probably stands the best chance followed by similar chances for The Notebook and Water For Elephants (though it's highly unlikely both do well). Then there's the big budget spectacles Back to the Future and The Great Gatsby. They seem to have a much better shot at technical nominations than anything above the line. Finally, there's The Heart of Rock and Roll which got better than expected reviews but still seems closer to the "no chance" column than the "contender" column.
There were six musical revivals and it's really all about Merrily We Roll Along after Cabaret underwhelmed with reviews and audience reception. Before that, it was looking like a two show race. Cabaret will still most likely get in and so will The Who's Tommy, which was generally well received. So that leaves one slot for either The Wiz, Spamalot and Gutenberg. Gutenberg was a smash in the winter but it's long gone. Spamalot got better reviews than expected but it's also closed. So that leaves The Wiz, which wasn't all that well reviewed but is still running and a huge hit at the box office. I'm leaning towards The Wiz getting the last slot at the moment.
Briefly on the plays - it looks to be mostly about Stereophonic and Appropriate. It's quite possible that those two shows will end up winning all the Play categories. Both were critically adored and are selling well. If there are any shows that can also make a dent, it could be Purlie Victorious, which is closed but ended up being more of a player than originally thought. There will be other shows that will get their share of nominations but they'll have to settle for that in a year with two dominant frontrunners.
Best Musical
Hell's Kitchen
Illinoise
The Outsiders
Suffs
Water For Elephants
Best Play
Jaja's African Hair Braiding
Mary Jane
Patriots
Prayer for the French Republic
Stereophonic
Best Revival of a Musical
Cabaret
Merrily We Roll Along
The Who's Tommy
The Wiz
Best Revival of a Play
Appropriate
Doubt
Purlie Victorious
Lead Actor in a Musical
Jonathan Groff, Merrily We Roll Along
Dorian Harewood, The Notebook
Brian D'Arcy James, Days of Wine and Roses
Eddie Redmayne, Cabaret
Chip Zien, Harmony
Lead Actress in a Musical
Maleah Joi Moon, Hell's Kitchen
Kelli O'Hara, Days of Wine and Roses
Maryann Plunkett, The Notebook
Gayle Rankin, Cabaret
Shaina Taub, Suffs
Lead Actor in a Play
Steve Carell, Uncle Vanya
William Jackson Harper, Uncle Vanya
Leslie Odom Jr., Purlie Victorious
Jeremy Strong, An Enemy of the People
Michael Stuhlbarg, Patriots
Lead Actress in a Play
Jessica Lange, Mother Play
Rachel McAdams, Mary Jane
Sarah Paulson, Appropriate
Amy Ryan, Doubt
Featured Actor in a Musical
Joshua Boone, The Outsiders
Brandon Victor Dixon, Hell's Kitchen
Paul Alexander Nolan, Water For Elephants
Daniel Radcliffe, Merrily We Roll Along
Reg Rogers, Merrily We Roll Along
Featured Actress in a Musical
Krystal Joy Brown, Merrily We Roll Along
Nikki M. James, Suffs
Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer, Spamalot
Lindsay Mendez, Merrily We Roll Along
Bebe Neuwirth, Cabaret
Featured Actor in a Play
Will Brill, Stereophonic
Eli Gelb, Stereophonic
Michael Imperioli, An Enemy of the People
Jim Parsons, Mother Play
Corey Stoll, Appropriate
Featured Actress in a Play
Francis Benhamou, Prayer for the French Republic
Juliana Canfield, Stereophonic
Victoria Pedretti, An Enemy of the People
Sarah Pidgeon, Stereophonic
Kara Young, Purlie Victorious
Original Score
Days of Wine and Roses - Adam Guettel
The Notebook - Ingrid Michaelson
The Outsiders - Jamestown Revival & Justin Levine
Stereophonic - Will Butler
Suffs - Shaina Taub
Book of a Musical
Days of Wine and Roses - Craig Lucas
Hell's Kitchen - Kristoffer Diaz
The Notebook - Bekah Brunstetter
The Outsiders - Adam Rapp & Justin Levine
Suffs - Shaina Taub
Direction of a Musical
Maria Friedman, Merrily We Roll Along
Justin Peck, Illinoise
Leigh Silverman, Suffs
Danya Taymor, The Outsiders
Alex Timbers, Here Lies Love
Direction of a Play
Daniel Aukin, Stereophonic
David Cromer, Prayer for the French Republic
Anne Kauffman, Mary Jane
Kenny Leon, Purlie Victorious
Lila Neugebauer, Appropriate
Choreography
Camille A. Brown, Hell's Kitchen
Rick Kuperman & Jeff Kuperman, The Outsiders
Lorin Latarro, The Who's Tommy
Justin Peck, Illinoise
Jesse Robb & Shana Carroll, Water For Elephants
Scenic Design of a Musical
Paul Tate dePoo III, The Great Gatsby
Soutra Gilmour, Merrily We Roll Along
Tim Hatley & Finn Ross, Back to the Future
David Korins, Here Lies Love
Tom Scutt, Cabaret
Scenic Design of a Play
Paul Tate dePoo III, The Cottage
dots, Appropriate
Derek McLane, Purlie Victorious
Scott Pask, Grey House
David Zinn, Stereophonic
Costume Design of a Musical
Sarafina Bush, The Who's Tommy
Linda Cho, The Great Gatsby
Soutra Gilmour, Merrily We Roll Along
Clint Ramos, Here Lies Love
Tom Scutt, Cabaret
Costume Design of a Play
Dede Ayite, Appropriate
Dede Ayite, Jaja's African Hair Braiding
Enver Chakartash, Stereophonic
Sydney Maresca, The Cottage
Emilio Sosa, Purlie Victorious
Lighting Design of a Musical
Isabella Byrd, Cabaret
Tim Lutkin & Hugh Vanstone, Back to the Future
Brian MacDevitt & Hanna S. Kim, The Outsiders
Cory Pattak, The Great Gatsby
Justin Townsend, Here Lies Love
Lighting Design of a Play
Isabella Byrd, An Enemy of the People
Jiyoun Chang, Stereophonic
Jane Cox, Appropriate
Adam Honore, Purlie Victorious
Natasha Katz, Grey House
Sound Design of a Musical
Jason Crystal, Suffs
Kai Harada, Merrily We Roll Along
Gareth MacAleavey, Illinoise
Gareth Owen, Hell's Kitchen
Cody Spencer, The Outsiders
Sound Design of a Play
Mikhail Fiksel & Beth Lake, Uncle Vanya
Tom Gibbons, Grey House
Bray Poor & Will Pickens, Appropriate
Ryan Rumery, Stereophonic
Mikaal Sulaiman, Doubt
Orchestrations
Timo Andres, Illinoise
Will Butler & Justin Craig, Stereophonic
John Clancy & Carmel Dean, The Notebook
Adam Guettel & Jamie Lawrence, Days of Wine and Roses
Michael Starobin, Suffs
TOTALS
12 nominations: Stereophonic
10 nominations: Merrily We Roll Along
8 nominations: Appropriate, The Outsiders, Suffs
7 nominations: Cabaret, Purlie Victorious
6 nominations: Hell's Kitchen
5 nominations: Days of Wine and Roses, Illinoise, The Notebook
4 nominations: An Enemy of the People, Here Lies Love
3 nominations: Doubt, The Great Gatsby, Grey House, Mary Jane, Prayer for the French Republic, Uncle Vanya, Water For Elephants, The Who's Tommy
2 nominations: Back to the Future, The Cottage, Jaja's African Hair Braiding, Mother Play, Patriots
1 nomination: Harmony, Spamalot, The Wiz
0 nominations: Gutenberg the Musical, The Heart of Rock and Roll, How to Dance in Ohio, I Need That, Once Upon a One More Time, The Shark is Broken
Unlike the Lead Actor in a Comedy Series category which has a very clear frontrunner (Jeremy Allen White), there are three major contenders for the win in the Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series and it could go to any of the three of them. The defending champion is Quinta Brunson of Abbott Elementary. After winning for Writing in 2022, she won for her starring role this past year. But she'll be back to facing off against the formidable two time winner Jean Smart. Smart won in 2021 and 2022 before Hacks was delayed for its third season due to the strikes and a heart issue for Smart. With Hacks about to premiere, she could come back very strong and beat Brunson as she did two years ago. But there's another defending champion in the mix too. Ayo Edebiri won in the Supporting Actress category for The Bear last year and has been moved up to Lead this year. Although it could be argued that Edebiri's role isn't as much of a Lead role, she is part of the series that's likely to dominate and sometimes that can lift everyone to a win so she is very much in the mix. Those three actresses are sure to get nominated, so who will fill up the rest of the category? Will this be the first time that Selena Gomez gets in for Only Murders in the Building? She hasn't been able to crack this category yet but the competition is a bit lighter this year. Kristen Wiig is an awards darling and could easily get in for Palm Royale but the series has received mixed reviews. I still think she may be the most likely of anyone to get a nomination from the star-studded cast. There's a lot of hope in some circles for Devery Jacobs from Reservation Dogs but that show has yet to have any momentum at the Emmys so it's hard to imagine. Maya Rudolph is a contender for Loot but I think if a former SNL star in an underseen Apple TV+ comedy is going to get in, it will be Wiig. Sarah Lancashire didn't get in for Julia's first season when she had a bit of buzz so it seems unlikely she'll make it in especially with her show cancelled. Girls5Eva didn't break out on Netflix like many predicted it would so that hurts the chances for Renee Elise Goldsberry and Sara Bareilles. The dark horses include Natasia Demetriou for What We Do in the Shadows, Oscar winner Michelle Yeoh for the cancelled The Brothers Sun and Amy Schumer for Life and Beth.
Current Projected Nominees (ranked in order of confidence):
1. Jean Smart, Hacks
2. Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
3. Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
4. Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building
5. Kristen Wiig, Palm Royale
Possible Spoilers:
6. Devery Jacobs, Reservation Dogs
7. Natasia Demetriou, What We Do in the Shadows
SCRIPTED PREMIERES THIS WEEK
There's a couple notable premieres this week as we head into May and the final month of Emmy eligibility for this cycle. On Tuesday, Hulu has the premiere of the Elisabeth Moss limited series The Veil. While there was some hope this could be a late Emmys player with a bankable star, the reviews haven't been great. Wednesday has a third season premiere of Acapulco on Apple TV+, a show that's hard to believe is already in its third season. The biggest premiere of the week is the third season of Hacks, which debuts with two episodes on Thursday on Max. The series has been off the air for quite awhile but the third season is already getting on glowing reviews. Also on Thursday, Netflix has the limited series A Man in Full created by David E. Kelley and starring Jeff Daniels, and Peacock has the premiere of the limited series The Tattooist of Auschwitz. Both shows seem to be under the radar.
ODDS & ENDS
- Palm Royale is such a weird mess of the show. Every once in awhile, I think it really gels and has a point of view and a good understanding of the culture it seems to be lampooning. But more often than not, I can't figure out at all what the show even wants to be. This week was truly absurd. With a bad CGI beached whale as a major plot point, the show devolved into lunacy. I have seen Allison Janney be incredible in things, even when the material was beneath her. But this was a bridge too far. She seemed to be almost embarrassed having to act opposite the giant whale. I'll watch the last two episodes of this show but it is really irritating me now.
- I checked out the first two episodes of the second season of The Big Door Prize after watching the whole first season, but I think I'm done. This a case where the show I want it to be is not the show the creators are interested in making. There are elements of the show that I like - most of the performances and the quirky little village it has created. But the main plot element, about the machine, just isn't something I'm interested enough in to watch a whole second season. It feels like that story is better suited to a jumping off point or an arc, but to be the whole point of the show - it just doesn't quite work for me. I'd be surprised if it got a third season.
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