I will be ending by Emmy Preview with a look at the Series races! Lots could change between now and nominations day on July 14 but here is how I see things shaking out as of now.
As I have mentioned, the comedy series categories are incredibly competitive this year. Maybe the most competitive ever with a whopping 14 former nominees eligible in the categories along with several promising newbies. Two former winners are in the mix: last year's winner Ted Lasso and 2018's winner The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. Lasso is definitely a serious threat to repeat as winner. Maisel will probably get nominated again though the fourth season was not received as well as the first three. Two slam dunk nominees are Barry and Hacks. Both could be threats to unseat Lasso as the winner as well. After that, there's a logjam of potential returning nominees. Black-ish has been nominated four times and returned as a nominee last year after two years without getting a nod. It is the final season for that show and Insecure but final season nominations have been hit and miss over the years. Russian Doll is Netflix's best bet in a year where they don't have any real serious comedy contenders but its second season seemed to have lukewarm buzz. Curb Your Enthusiasm has been nominated nine times in this category dating back to 2002 (and never won) but I don't see it getting a tenth nomination this year. What We Do in the Shadows was a surprise nominee in 2020 and could get in again though I don't feel great about its chances. Ditto for Atlanta, which had a polarizing third season after several years off. Cobra Kai, Emily in Paris and PEN15 were all nominees in 2021 but that was a much weaker field and I don't see any of them returning. The most interesting one in the mix is The Flight Attendant, which had a strong haul of nominations last year. I could see it doing well again or getting snubbed in a lot of places. Right now I'm leaning a bit toward the latter .The best bets besides the big contenders could be new shows. Only Murders in the Building seems like a slam dunk for its acclaimed first season while buzz seems to be growing for Abbott Elementary to be a strong broadcast representative. The Great seemed to be on the cusp of getting nominated in 2020 but the competition is more fierce this year. I would keep an eye out for Reservation Dogs, which could be a surprise nominee. A few longshots include The Afterparty, Ghosts, Julia and the final season of Better Things.
PREDICTED NOMINEES
These are listed in order of likelihood to get nominated, not necessarily to win. I'm listing eight for each category even though several categories may end up with less than eight.
1. Ted Lasso
2. Hacks
3. Barry
4. Only Murders in the Building
5. Abbott Elementary
6. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
7. Black-ish
8. Reservation Dogs
There are half the number of potential returning drama series compared to comedies which means we're guaranteed to get at least one new entry and probably more than that. The frontrunner is the only previous winner to be eligible this year and that's Succession, which won in 2020 and is on track to get another win this year. Better Call Saul has been nominated five times before and seems very likely to get in again. Then there's the parade of final seasons with This is Us, Ozark and Killing Eve. This is Us got strong reviews for its final season so it seems likely to return. I'm a little shakier on the other two though I like Ozark's chances better than Killing Eve. Then there's Stranger Things, which was a late addition to the party with its recent debut. Buzz has been pretty decent so I feel stronger about its chances of getting nominated than I did a few weeks ago. Of the potential returnees, the only one I think doesn't stand a chance to return is Bridgerton. It got in as a buzzy show in a light year last year but I wouldn't expect a repeat. So now we turn our attention to the newbies and there's a couple that have been getting a ton of buzz. Squid Game feels like a lock after its strong performance at the winter awards. Severance seems to be getting buzz by the day and could be peaking at the right time in the public's consciousness. Yellowjackets is a really interesting case. Showtime often struggles to break through but there has definitely been buzz for Yellowjackets. Unlike Severance though, it feels as though it may have already peaked. Pachinko could get in, but I think it's more likely to get some below the line nominations. Then there's returning shows that haven't broken through at the Emmys but could this year. That includes Euphoria, which was certainly a buzzy show and had a win for star Zendaya in 2020 despite no series nomination. There's also a lot of debate about Yellowstone. Will this be the year that the broadly appealing, highly rated comedy gets through? I'm pretty torn on that right now. That's a lot of contenders but there are a few sleepers like Winning Time: The Rise and Fall of the Lakers Dynasty, The Gilded Age and Loki. The Morning Show was a surprise snub in 2020 but I don't see it getting in after a lackluster second season.
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Succession
2. Squid Game
3. Better Call Saul
4. This is Us
5. Ozark
6. Severance
7. Stranger Things
8. Euphoria
The Limited Series category is an interesting one because there are three shows that feel like slam dunks and then gazillions of others vying for what will likely be three additional slots. The slam dunks are The White Lotus, Dopesick and Maid. Some may argue The White Lotus doesn't belong in this category since its returning for a second season but its stature seems to have risen as more and more limited series arrived to mixed reviews. Dopesick has all the hallmarks of a prestige show and is definitely a real threat to take the prize. Maid was a big hit on Netflix and earned near universal acclaim. After that, let the logjam begin. Probably the next most likely nominee is The Dropout, which mostly had positive reviews and seemed to be the best received of the string of "fraud" themed limited series that also included WeCrashed on Apple TV+, Super Pumped on Showtime and Inventing Anna on Netflix. Of those three just mentioned, only Anna has a chance at a nomination due to the Shonda Rhimes and Netflix factor. Hulu and FX just wrapped up with Under the Banner of Heaven, which seemed to be playing for prestige points but didn't seem to really get into the conversation much. Likewise, Pam & Tommy earned some good reviews but didn't break through as much as it seemed like it should. Station Eleven has earned a ton of praise from critics but it seems to have been mostly ignored by the public while The Staircase may have come too late to really break through though I wouldn't count it out. Then there's the political duo of The First Lady and Gaslit. The First Lady was a big disappointment in reviews and seems to have worked its way out of the conversation. Gaslit has been better received but it airs on Starz and that network can never get itself into the conversation. Speaking of political, Impeachment: American Crime Story didn't break through but I wouldn't totally rule out an established franchise. If Yellowstone makes it into Drama Series, you can't count 1883 out in the Limited Series race. Disney+ was a big player in this category last year with WandaVision so there's some speculation about Moon Knight but I don't personally see it happening. It's hard to imagine the last three slots not going to one of the shows already mentioned but longshots include We Own This City, Scenes From a Marriage, The Girl From Plainville and A Very British Scandal.
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Dopesick
2. Maid
3. The White Lotus
4. The Dropout
5. Inventing Anna
6. 1883
7. Under the Banner of Heaven
8. The Staircase
Tomorrow: A One Season Wonder look at 1995's Get Smart!
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