This is my final regular blog post of the season. I will be back in July for my second annual Benjamonster Awards with daily posts and then I will resume the weekday blog posts in September. Thanks for reading! I will be ending with a supersized Friday Five handicapping the lead acting races and series races for the Emmys!
Thanks to COVID, there will be tons of turnover in most Emmy categories this year and then 2022 will likely be a mix of 2021 and 2020 nominees. The only comedy series nominee from last year that is eligible again this year is the final season of The Kominsky Method which could easily snag another nomination. A couple other former nominees are also eligible - Master of None, for its first season since 2017 and Black-ish, which was last nominated in 2018. There are likely to be a lot of new shows in the mix. Most notable of course is frontrunner Ted Lasso, which seems to be a lock. The Flight Attendant has underperformed in other awards but still seems likely to score a nomination. Hacks has been making a late push and could get in as well while Girls5Eva has a longer shot but still a shot. There's also some returning series looking for their first nomination. PEN15 received a writing nomination for its first season and seems poised to make the leap to series for its second. Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist could get in but its recent cancellation really hurts its chances. After its move to Netflix, Cobra Kai had its profile raised and could get in despite not being the type of show that often gets Emmy nominations. Then there's the longer shots that could surprise. That includes the second season of Dickinson, the new Made for Love or two broadcast shows with final seasons: Mom and Superstore. After the mockery the Globes got for nominating Emily in Paris, an Emmy nomination seems unlikely but you never know.
Current Predictions: Black-ish, Girls5Eva, The Flight Attendant, Hacks, The Kominsky Method, Master of None, PEN15, Ted Lasso
Just like Comedy Series, there are very few returning contenders in Drama Series. From last year, The Crown, The Handmaid's Tale and The Mandalorian are eligible again and all seem likely to get in with Crown being the favorite to win the whole thing. Former nominees Pose and This is Us are in the mix as well and could get back into the series conversation in a weaker field after not making the cut last year. Among new shows, Bridgerton seems likely to get in despite some detractors. Lovecraft Country also has an inside track. That would make two genre shows alongside Mandalorian and there could be a third with the second season of The Boys. Perry Mason and the revival of In Treatment both have a chance though the buzz is stronger with their lead roles than the series. Some people have pegged The Falcon and the Winter Solider as a contender after Disney+ moved the series to the Drama category but I just don't see it having a realistic chance. There are certainly vocal supporters for P-Valley but it hasn't been able to cut through and become a legit contender. Other longshots include The Mosquito Coast, For All Mankind and Ratched. I wouldn't rule any of them out because some of the leading contenders (aside from the major ones led by The Crown) don't seem particularly strong.
Current Predictions: Bridgerton, The Crown, The Handmaid's Tale, Lovecraft Country, The Mandalorian, Perry Mason, Pose, This is Us
The limited series categories are stacked this year with many worthy contenders for likely five slots. This is a place where the rules based on submissions (which I agree with in principle) seem to work against a category where there's certainly more than five worthy contenders. Leading the pack among the contenders is The Queen's Gambit, which is a lock for a nomination and has a good chance to win but it's less of a frontrunner to win than The Crown or Ted Lasso in their categories. The downward spiral of the Golden Globes didn't help itself when I May Destroy You was snubbed and it seems unlikely that the Emmys will also snub after all that went down. Two recent releases have also found themselves in the conversation: Mare of Easttown, a big buzzy hit, and The Underground Railroad, which has more critical love than audience love. At one point, Amazon's series of movies, Small Axe seemed like a lock but it doesn't seem quite as much one now. And the chances for The Undoing seems to have stalled once Mare of Easttown was a similar show on the same network but much better received. The biggest wildcard here is WandaVision, which was one of the biggest hits of the year. Since it was the first Marvel show, we don't really know how Emmy voters will respond to it but their support for The Mandalorian last year seems to help its cause. If one of the frontrunners falter, It's A Sin could sneak in but it'll be an uphill climb. I suppose some long shots like Genius: Aretha and Fargo (both nominees for previous installments) could be mentioned but with only five slots, they seem very unlikely to get a nod. And in lesser years, we might hear something about The Haunting of Bly Manor, The Good Lord Bird or The Comey Rule. But this was too strong a year for limited series.
Current Predictions: I May Destroy You, Mare of Easttown, The Queen's Gambit, The Underground Railroad, WandaVision
There is one sure thing in this category and it's Jason Sudeikis for Ted Lasso. Not only is he a lock to be nominated, he's also very likely to win especially with so much turnover. Next in line are probably previous nominees Anthony Anderson for Black-ish and Michael Douglas for the final season of The Kominsky Method. After that it's really anyone's guess and the pickings get a lot more slim. Ted Danson was a nominee for The Good Place last year and could return for Mr. Mayor while Kenan Thompson could get in for Kenan but the problem is neither of those shows were all that well received even though the stars are beloved. William H. Macy was a five time nominee for Shameless and could get nominated for one final go around but he hasn't been since 2018. In a normal year, I don't think we'd be talking about Cobra Kai in an Emmys post but this has not been a normal year and both Ralph Macchio and William Zabka have a chance. Since this category is so slim, it could be a place where surprises could happen but who might be those surprises. John Goodman for The Conners in a role he was nominated for seven times during Roseanne? Ben Feldman for the final season of Superstore? Billy Magnussen for Made for Love? Alan Tudyk for Resident Alien? None of those seem too much more unlikely than Danson or Thompson so I'm prepared for surprises to happen here.
Current Predictions: Anthony Anderson, Ted Danson, Michael Douglas, Ralph Macchio, William H. Macy, Jason Sudeikis
For most of the year, the frontrunner for this award has been Kaley Cuoco for The Flight Attendant. Although she didn't win at the winter awards, most assumed it was because she was still against Catherine O'Hara and Cuoco would be fine for the Emmys. But now there's been a late threat to her chance at Emmy glory and it comes in the form of Jean Smart for Hacks who is quickly becoming a major threat if not the frontrunner. Both Cuoco and Smart have to be considered near locks and the other one that seems pretty much a sure thing is the only eligible nominee from last year, Black-ish's Tracee Ellis Ross. So who else will fill the slots? There's a lot of contenders. Allison Janney is a former winner for supporting actress and nominee for lead actress and could return for the final season of Mom. Both Maya Erskine and Anna Konkle have a good chance if PEN15 can take a leap forward but Erskine is considered the safer bet. Jane Levy did not make it in last year for Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist and the cancellation of Zoey doesn't help matters but she still has a chance. Renee Elise Goldsberry has gotten tons of great notices for Girls5Eva and that might be enough to get in the conversation. Some longer shots include Lena Waithe for Master of None as buzz hasn't been as strong on the long-delayed third season of the show. Cristin Milioti could be in the mix but Made for Love didn't make much of an impact. Hailee Steinfeld could be a surprising entry with her second season of Dickinson and Lily Collins got a Golden Globe nomination. Though that nomination was criticized, she isn't an impossibility. There's probably less likely to be a huge surprise here but if there was, there are real dark horses like Robin Thede for A Black Lady Sketch Show, Aidy Bryant for Shrill and Nasim Pedrad for Chad.
Current Predictions: Kaley Cuoco, Maya Erskine, Renee Elise Goldsberry, Anna Konkle, Tracee Ellis Ross, Jean Smart
Drama Actor is a little less wild than Comedy Actor because there are more contenders that seem to be legit and a solid six that seem to be ahead of the rest right now. Leading the pack is Josh O'Connor, who was not nominated for Supporting Actor last year but had a big leap forward in the fourth season and has moved up to lead for The Crown. His biggest competition might be former winner Billy Porter, who had a very awards-bait final season of Pose. Rege-Jean Page is departing Bridgerton and seems unlikely to win but he's probably going to get a nomination for his breakout role. Perry Mason didn't get a ton of attention but star Matthew Rhys seems like a pretty safe bet. Then there's the men from This is Us. Sterling K. Brown will likely get in again while Milo Ventimiglia was shut out last year and didn't have a ton to do this season. Justin Hartley has never been nominated for the show but led a lot of the storylines this year. Another strong contender is Jonathan Majors for Lovecraft Country while Pedro Pascal for The Mandalorian and Justin Theroux for The Mosquito Coast have a chance. If The Boys makes Emmy noise, Antony Starr could be in the mix. I don't feel great about The Falcon and the Winter Soldier's chances so I don't think Anthony Mackie or Sebastian Stan will get in.
Current Predictions: Sterling K. Brown, Jonathan Majors, Josh O'Connor, Rege-Jean Page, Billy Porter, Matthew Rhys
Lead Actress in a Drama Series seems primarily a battle between actresses from The Crown. Olivia Colman will likely be nominate for a second straight year as Queen Elizabeth but the frontrunner is her co-star Emma Corrin in her star-making turn as Princess Diana. Elsewhere, former winner Elisabeth Moss was a shocking omission last year but The Handmaid's Tale actress seems likely to get back in with a weaker field. Another former nominee is Mandy Moore for This is Us, but she didn't have a ton to do this year on the show due in part to her pregnancy. First time nominees could include Jurnee Smollett for Lovecraft Country and Phoebe Dynevor for Bridgerton with Smollett a more likely nominee. In Treatment hasn't garnered a ton of buzz but Uzo Aduba, a winner last year for Mrs. America, is a favorite of the Emmys and seems very likely to get in. Another Emmy favorite is Sarah Paulson. Though she was snubbed for Mrs. America last year, she is still a seven time Emmy nominee so don't count her out for Ratched. Dark horses that have some backers include Billie Piper for I Hate Suzie and Brandee Evans for P-Valley but the most energy among the less sure things seems to be for Mj Rodriguez for the final season of Pose. After that, it really drops off. I suppose you could see someone like Jennifer Connelly for Snowpiercer or Melissa George for The Mosquito Coast, but that would really surprise me.
Current Predictions: Uzo Aduba, Olivia Colman, Emma Corrin, Elisabeth Moss, Mj Rodriguez, Jurnee Smollett
This category isn't as stacked as the next category on the list but there are still several notable performances in contention. It's a tough situation to predict because the presumed frontrunner, Ethan Hawke for The Good Lord Bird, is on a show that's not likely to get a ton of Emmy love. But Hawke seems to have transcended the show. Although The Undoing had a lot of detractors, there was general support for Hugh Grant's performance so he seems likely to get in. Bryan Cranston and Jeff Daniels are both Emmy favorites but they're both teetering on the edge with mixed reception to Your Honor and The Comey Rule. And while Chris Rock was a big deal when casting was announced for Fargo, the fourth season of the anthology series sort of fizzled. A series that didn't fizzle at all was WandaVision so Paul Bettany seems likely to get in. Halston was another show that didn't get much interest but Ewan McGregor is a pretty strong contender in the lead role. Some dark horses could include Joel Edgerton for The Underground Railroad or Olly Alexander for It's A Sin. And then there's Hamilton. It depends on how Emmy voters view it and if it belongs in this category (it doesn't...). If they are less concerned about category fraud, then Lin-Manuel Miranda and Leslie Odom Jr.. both have a chance.
Current Predictions: Paul Bettany, Hugh Grant, Ethan Hawke, Ewan McGregor, Lin-Manuel Miranda
And we may have saved the best for last. This is a stacked category with more than five worthy contenders. There seems to be a three headed race for frontrunner between Anya Taylor-Joy for The Queen's Gambit, Kate Winslet for Mare of Easttown and Michaela Coel for I May Destroy You. While Coel is a favorite among critics and Winslet has come on strong as of late, this category still seems to be Taylor-Joy's to lose. But those are just the big three. We won't know until the day of Emmy nominations how the Emmys respond to Marvel but Elizabeth Olsen seems likely to get a nomination for WandaVision. Despite Genius: Aretha not making much of an impact, there seems to be some support for Cynthia Erivo's performance in the lead role. Thuso Mbedu is another late breaking entry who has a chance to get in but that may depend some on how The Underground Railroad does as a whole. Then there's the divisive reception to Nicole Kidman for The Undoing. She was a winner for the first season of Big Little Lies but not nominated for the second season and this situation seems closer to the latter. While it seems very likely that the five nominees will come from the seven names I listed already, there is some love for dark horses like Lydia West for It's A Sin, Amanda Peet for Dirty John and Kate Mara for A Teacher. It's hard to imagine anyone else really in the conversation at all with the top of the category so strong.
Current Predictions: Michaela Coel, Nicole Kidman, Elizabeth Olsen, Anya Taylor-Joy, Kate Winslet
Check back July 1 and every day in July for the Benjamonster Awards!
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