FRESHMAN SCORECARD: December 2014

Here is the December scorecard. As always, these are ranked from best to worst chance of survival.

Past December scorecards: 2013   2012   2011   2010


ABC

How to Get Away with Murder - Not quite as dominant as the first couple weeks but easily the top new demo draw of the year. It's a sure thing. 99%

Black-ish - ABC finally has a hit at 9:30pm Wednesday. It's definitely coming back, the only question is will it get a second year behind Modern Family? 99%

Cristela - The full season order was a vote of confidence, but it's being a bit of an under-performer even on Fridays. How it holds up in the spring creatively and in the ratings will go a long way towards its chances. 45%

Forever - It showed early promise, but it hasn't really earned its full season order. Despite being an improvement in the time period, I don't think it will be enough. 20%

Selfie/Manhattan Love Story - Cancelled.

CBS

NCIS: New Orleans - It's been everything CBS (and all of us) were expecting and that's a good thing. It's absolutely coming back. 99%

Madam Secretary - We still have to see how this show will do when it's not getting a football lead-in half of the weeks, but it has been promising on the weeks it doesn't have a direct NFL lead-in. CBS is also going out of its way to tout its upscale viewership. It's been a pleasant surprise. 80%

Scorpion - It has performed admirably with less than ideal circumstances (a weak lead-in from the now cancelled The Millers). It also is right on CBS brand and they'll probably be able to sell the syndication. Things would have to fall apart big time for it to not get renewed. 80%

Stalker - It is holding up OK on Wednesday nights but CBS has three new dramas that are performing better not to mention the many veterans. In a weaker year, this might have a chance but I'm not feeling good about things right now. 35%

The McCarthys - It hasn't been yanked off the schedule yet, but that's about the best I can say. Despite the continued promotion, it's not finding an audience and it won't last. 10%

NBC

The Mysteries of Laura - It's been a rough fall for the NBC newbies considering the fact that this modest performer is their biggest success story. It all depends on how midseason things go, but I wouldn't count it out because it's fitting in well on Wednesdays. 55%

State of Affairs - It has only had two episodes and the second one had to deal with Ferguson preemptions and interruptions. But I'm pretty down on this show. I see no buzz and I think it will crater during the hiatus for The Voice that NBC might be tempted to try something else here in March. 25%

Marry Me - What a disappointment this show has been. It has already proven it can do very little with a lead-in from The Voice. Without The Voice, I think it would be off the map. NBC's comedy development is pretty abysmal. 15%

Constantine - NBC announced it will end its first season after 13 episodes and season two is still a possibility. But I think if it was a real possibility, it would have gotten more episodes. I see NBC trying something different on Fridays. 10%

Bad Judge/A to Z - Cancelled.

FOX
Gotham - In a regular FOX year, it would be a near shoo-in. In a FOX year like this one, it's shocking it hasn't already been picked up for a season two. It's a sure thing. 99%

Red Band Society/Mulaney/Gracepoint - I'm putting these three together because they don't stand a chance. Red Band will end after 13 episodes, Mulaney had its order trimmed, and Gracepoint is a limited series. On top of that, they are all tanking in the ratings. FOX will go in a new direction and these shows will not be a part of it. 1%

Utopia - Cancelled.