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Tuesday, November 1, 2016

FRESHMAN SCORECARD: November 2016

Here is the November Freshman Scorecard! No new series premiere during this month but I have a feeling we'll get a lot more midseason information before this month is done!

Past November scorecards: 2015   2014   2013   2012   2011   2010











LOOKING GOOD
Speechless, American Housewife
ABC may be in trouble with their dramas not named Grey's Anatomy but they know how to do sitcom blocks like no other and it looks as though they've found two new winners. Speechless has been a perfect fit after The Goldbergs on Wednesdays while American Housewife has built on its lead-in (The Middle) for three straight weeks in the new Tuesday block. Comedies don't tend to have as dramatic drops in the season especially when their nestled in a strong lineup so I think prospects are bright for both of these. Speechless already has a full season and I'm sure one is coming soon for American Housewife.

STILL VERY LIKELY
Designated Survivor
It had an ugly drop to a 1.2 demo this week and now has to take another week off but I still like Designated Survivor's chances especially because of the two dramas I'm about to talk about. It is still an improvement in the Wednesday slot and has been a big DVR gainer. A show that starts like this one did tends to get enough goodwill so I think it would have to have a Muppets type collapse the rest of the season to not get renewed.

NO CHANCE
Conviction, Notorious
Two ABC dramas have been complete duds. Notorious had its order trimmed this week as it is bringing down a formerly strong ABC night by being a glaring weakspot in the prime Thursday 9pm slot. It will be gone before Scandal comes back in January. Conviction has not had an order trimmed yet but it's obvious it will not be going beyond its initial order with minuscule numbers in another high profile slot - Monday at 10pm.








LOOKING GOOD
Kevin Can Wait, Bull
CBS hasn't had a breakout hit but they have two new shows that have fit in very well with their lineup. Bull is TV's top new show in terms of total viewers and has been a solid companion to a slightly less strong NCIS. Kevin Can Wait passed its first test airing at 8pm with a positive enough performance but it still has to hang out for a lot of the season. I think it will continue to do enough to allow CBS to keep it as an anchor.

ON THE BUBBLE
MacGyver
After a really strong start, MacGyver has cooled some but it's still fitting in well with the Friday night lineup and it stands a chance with so many CBS dramas getting up there in age. It will have to level off now though and it hs shown signs of that in recent weeks.

TOO SOON TO TELL
The Great Indoors, Man with a Plan
These two shows have aired just one episode and had decent but not incredible starts. The jury is still out right now on both of these. I could see one, both, or neither getting renewed.

VERY UNLIKELY
Pure Genius
Even if it miraculously manages to hold on to its demo premiere number, I really don't like its chances. This show is going to be replaced at some point during the season, probably not long after Christmas.














A SURE BET
This is Us
The fall's buzziest and biggest hit. There is no way this isn't getting renewed and it'll probably get an early renewal at that.

LOOKING GOOD
The Good Place
It has held up surprisingly well and doesn't have many more episodes so I think it's done enough to get a second season especially given the current state of NBC comedies.

ON THE BUBBLE
Timeless
Timeless has been very up and down so it remains firmly on the bubble. On the plus side, it has had some solid weeks including it surprising week three surge. It's also still a priority for NBC. On the negative side, it has had some real stinkers already and retention is bad out of The Voice. It's on the bubble but I'd say it's on the wrong side of the bubble right now.










LOOKING GOOD
Lethal Weapon
This has so far looked stronger relative to Empire than Rosewood did and Rosewood got renewed so I like this one's chances. It also doesn't hurt that every other night besides Wednesdays is cratering for FOX.

SLIM CHANCE
Son of Zorn, Pitch, The Exorcist
Even with the dire state of FOX's network, I don't like any of these three shows' chances. Son of Zorn has been very unimpressive in one of the better network timeslots while The Exorcist has been nearly invisible on Fridays. Pitch is the most interesting but I've soured on this show's chances after it followed the World Series days with another 0.8 demo. If all of FOX's midseason shows bomb, these shows might have a slightly better chance.








SLIM CHANCE
Frequency
I don't really like the chances of either new show but Frequency has a better chance because it's been doing slightly better thanks to a weaker lead-in and a little bit more buzz. If CW doesn't want to cancel both newbies, then I say Frequency gets another chance. But I think both will be one and done.

DEAD SHOW WALKING
No Tomorrow
Maybe not quite as dead as Conviction and Notorious but it's right up there with Pure Genius as shows that I have a really hard time seeing move past 13 episodes.

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