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Saturday, October 1, 2016


Happy October! Welcome to the new Freshman Scorecard. As always, this scorecard looks at survival chances for the newbies. This year, I will be putting each show into groups rather than listing individually. Premiering this month are Conviction and American Housewife (ABC), Man with a Plan, The Great Indoors, and Pure Genius (CBS), Timeless (NBC), and No Tomorrow and Frequency (CW).

Past October scorecards: 2015   2014   2013   2012   2011   2010

Speechless, Designated Survivor
ABC is having all sorts of problems so their two new Wednesday shows are looking good at this point. Speechless fits right into the ABC comedy lineup and is in a more protected slot than Tuesday newbie American Housewife and bubble comedy The Real O'Neals (both premiering October 11). Designated Survivor had a big premiere and an understandable week two drop. It remains a huge improvement on the Weds schedule but it may be more prone to dropping in the weeks to come to Speechless. Right now though, both these shows are the least of ABC's concerns and have earned full seasons.

Notorious at least managed to hold its DOA premiere demo of 1.1. But all that probably did was keep it from getting pulled or moved immediately. ABC still has three Shonda shows read to air this year: Scandal, The Catch, and Still Star-Crossed so Notorious is a placeholder at best. It's not going to see a season two.

Kevin Can Wait, Bull, MacGyver
All three CBS shows that have premiered so far are looking promising. Kevin Can Wait is off to a great start on Mondays which needed to happen because it will be asked to leave off the night at the end of October. Bull fits well into the Tuesday night lineup and is a total viewer beast. MacGyver has been a huge surprise on Fridays with a dominant premiere and a pretty good week two hold. The three fall shows that have yet to premiere seem less promising for CBS so I think all three of these shows have a pretty good chance at coming back.

This is Us
NBC's new prize jewel is This is Us. With a big premiere and a good week two hold not to mention all the attention and acclaim, NBC will do everything they can to keep this a hit. It got a full season (for 18 episodes) and will continue to air behind The Voice for the next couple weeks. This would have to have an epic collapse to not see a second season.

The Good Place
So far, it has looked pretty good for The Good Place. Although the ratings are nothing special, it is holding on well to its Superstore lead-in and NBC doesn't exactly have a wealth of comedies. But I'm not convinced yet that it's going to keep doing well. If it's still holding on well at the end of October, I'll feel much better about its chances for a season two, especially with only 13 episodes airing.

Lethal Weapon
So far, Lethal Weapon seems like a much more deserving lead-in to Empire than Rosewood and Rosewood got renewed so this is looking good. It's also far and away FOX's #2 show behind Empire. Even if it falls another half a demo point, it's going to be in good shape given the sorry state of the FOX lineup.

Pitch, Son of Zorn
These two shows are on the fence for different reasons. Pitch has been critically acclaimed and has built on its lead-in but it's hovering awfully close to a fractional demo performance and the DVR lift wasn't as big as one might expect. Son of Zorn will be interesting to see this Sunday when it airs in its regular slot with an NFL lead-in. If it can rise nicely, it has a shot. If it stays fairly low, it seems likely to be done. Right now, it could go either way for both shows.

The Exorcist
It had an OK premiere but it just posted an ugly 0.7 demo on its second Friday. Even by Friday and FOX standards, this is a pretty low priority show that seems likely to go 13 episodes and done.

No Premieres Yet!

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